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Planting My Flag

Fantasy analysts are always talking about players that they are “planting their flags in” (Am I supposed to feel dirty when I type that?) each year.  I used to think this was a bad idea, as it might lead to poor draft day decisions.  Now that I am more seasoned I realize that we all develop an affinity for certain players each year.  I’m not talking your studs though.  Anybody can tell you to draft Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, or Roy Halladay.  For me, planting your flag requires you to step out on a limb of sorts.  These are the players that you feel, for whatever reason, are going to be big hits for the upcoming season.  For this article, I want to take a look at three players in which my flag has been metaphorically planted.

Mike Morse:

Last week in my live-blogged mock draft I explained how excited I was about getting Morse on my squad.  I referenced this video clip, and talked about how much I liked his swing.  Well I decided to take it a step further and look to see what his numbers said.  The numbers that caught my eye were his increased line drive rate, coupled with his decreasing ground ball rate.  Match those with an 85% contact rate and I see no reason why he can’t sustain a BABIP similar to his 2011 average of .344.  I predict a .290 average, 30 jacks, 90 RBI, and 70 runs scored.

Bud Norris:

Yes, he pitches for the lowly Astros.  Yes, he probably won’t accumulate many wins.  But if you’re chasing wins as a fantasy strategy, this might not be the website for you.  Not only can you snag Bud late in drafts, you will be getting an amazing bargain when you do.  He lowered his walk total last year, while actually increasing his innings pitched by 33. His 2011 ERA of 3.77 matched perfectly with his xFIP of 3.73.  His k/9 rate sits right at 8.5, and with a swing and miss rate right around 30% I see potential for a true breakout year.  I think Bud finishes the year with 197 IP, 205 K’s, and an ERA of 3.78.

Yoenis Cespedes:

I know, I know, we haven’t even seen him face big league pitching yet.  And to be honest I have no statistical evidence to support this pick.  Sometimes though, you just have to go with your gut.  Blind faith is counter-intuitive to almost everything I believe, but I am also a fan of legalized gaming.  Thus, I have no problem taking a gamble on Cespedes.  I might even reach a few rounds early just to get him.  To win your fantasy league you have to hit at least one grand slam on an unknown player.  For me, this is the guy.  No prediction here.  Just going with my gut that he completely outperforms the value of the draft pick I get him for.

You can follow Griffin on Twitter- his handle is @sp_flips.  Feel free to support, harass, or share any thoughts you have and he will be sure to reply.

The Baseball Show: Introducing Tomahawk Take

Last night on The Baseball Show, Clint Evans of Diamond Hoggers, M.J. Lloyd of Off Base Percentage, and I discussed the following topics:

-Our involvement with Tomahawk Take on the FanSided Network.

-Thoughts on the Braves shortstop situation, minor league prospects, Jason Heyward, the Jair Jurrjens rumors, and the Braves rotation for next season.

-We offer our thoughts on Derek Lowe’s departure to Cleveland.

-We talk about early hot stove off-season activity: Grady Sizemore, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols and many more free agents are discussed.

-We talk about the managerial possibilities around baseball: Sandy Alomar, Terry Francona, and Ryne Sandberg.

-We debate about the importance of a manager in the game of baseball today.

-I talk about Ozzie Guillen’s departure from the White Sox, and share my thoughts on Robin Ventura.

-As always, much more is discussed.

Freese, Berkman, and Hamilton’s Legendary Game Six

Early yesterday morning I posted an article that highlighted the best Game Six performances in World Series history, as determined by RE24.  Just to follow up and show everyone how absolutely extraordinary last night’s game was—as if you didn’t already know—here is what that Top-25 list looks like a day later:

Rk Player Date Tm Opp Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO RE24
1 Reggie Jackson 1977-10-18 NYY LAD W 8-4 4 3 4 3 0 0 3 5 1 0 4.874
2 Hideki Matsui 2009-11-04 NYY PHI W 7-3 4 4 1 3 1 0 1 6 0 1 4.683
3 Al Kaline 1968-10-09 DET STL W 13-1 5 4 3 3 0 0 1 4 0 1 4.374
4 Pedro Guerrero 1981-10-28 LAD NYY W 9-2 5 5 1 3 0 1 1 5 0 0 4.228
5 Stan Hack 1945-10-08 CHC DET W 8-7 7 5 1 4 1 0 0 3 2 0 3.905
6 Danny Bautista 2001-11-03 ARI NYY W 15-2 4 4 0 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 3.893
7 Lance Berkman 2011-10-27 STL TEX W 10-9 6 5 4 3 0 0 1 3 1 0 3.655
8 Jack Barry 1911-10-26 PHA NYG W 13-2 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 3.336
9 David Freese 2011-10-27 STL TEX W 10-9 6 5 1 2 0 1 1 3 1 1 3.117
10 Pee Wee Reese 1947-10-05 BRO NYY W 8-6 5 4 2 3 1 0 0 2 1 0 3.041
11 Jimmy Dykes 1930-10-08 PHA STL W 7-1 4 2 2 2 1 0 1 2 2 0 3.041
12 Yogi Berra 1960-10-12 NYY PIT W 12-0 5 4 3 3 0 0 0 2 1 0 2.997
13 Reggie Jackson 1973-10-20 OAK NYM W 3-1 4 4 1 3 2 0 0 2 0 0 2.886
14 Danny Murphy 1911-10-26 PHA NYG W 13-2 4 4 3 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 2.847
15 Josh Hamilton 2011-10-27 TEX STL L 9-10 6 6 2 3 0 0 1 3 0 1 2.823
16 Darrell Porter 1982-10-19 STL MIL W 13-1 4 4 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 2.789
17 Kirby Puckett 1991-10-26 MIN ATL W 4-3 5 4 2 3 0 1 1 3 0 1 2.756
18 Mel Ott 1936-10-06 NYG NYY L 5-13 5 4 1 2 1 0 1 3 1 0 2.741
19 Dib Williams 1931-10-09 PHA STL W 8-1 4 4 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 2.700
20 Terry Pendleton 1991-10-26 ATL MIN L 3-4 5 5 1 4 0 0 1 2 0 0 2.685
21 Willie Horton 1968-10-09 DET STL W 13-1 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 2.672
22 Marty Barrett 1986-10-25 BOS NYM L 5-6 6 4 1 3 0 0 0 2 2 0 2.668
23 Jake Powell 1936-10-06 NYY NYG W 13-5 5 5 3 3 0 0 1 4 0 2 2.667
24 Keith Hernandez 1982-10-19 STL MIL W 13-1 5 5 2 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 2.658
25 George Davis 1906-10-14 CHW CHC W 8-3 5 5 2 2 1 0 0 3 0 0 2.637
Rk Player Date Tm Opp Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO RE24
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/28/2011.

I’m f’n pumped for Game Seven.

The Best Game 6 Offensive Performances of All-Time

Last Saturday night, Albert Pujols treated us to an unparalleled display of power.  His 5-for-6 performance, which included three home runs, six RBI, and 14 total bases, produced a RE24 of 5.808, the highest in World Series history.

To help pass the time until tonight’s game, I thought that it would be interesting to examine the best Game Six offensive performances in World Series history, as determined by their RE24 value* from that game.

The most legendary Game Six performance belongs to Reggie Jackson, whose three home run game during the 1977 World Series sits atop the list with an RE24 of 4.874.  Beyond that you will find a list of players that includes a slew of Hall of Famers, World Series legends, a player who probably got high before the game, and Danny Bautista.

Rk Player Date Tm Opp Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP RE24
1 Reggie Jackson 1977-10-18 NYY LAD W 8-4 4 3 4 3 0 0 3 5 1 0 0 4.874
2 Hideki Matsui 2009-11-04 NYY PHI W 7-3 4 4 1 3 1 0 1 6 0 1 0 4.683
3 Al Kaline 1968-10-09 DET STL W 13-1 5 4 3 3 0 0 1 4 0 1 1 4.374
4 Pedro Guerrero 1981-10-28 LAD NYY W 9-2 5 5 1 3 0 1 1 5 0 0 0 4.228
5 Stan Hack 1945-10-08 CHC DET W 8-7 7 5 1 4 1 0 0 3 2 0 0 3.905
6 Danny Bautista 2001-11-03 ARI NYY W 15-2 4 4 0 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 3.893
7 Jack Barry 1911-10-26 PHA NYG W 13-2 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 3.336
8 Pee Wee Reese 1947-10-05 BRO NYY W 8-6 5 4 2 3 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 3.041
9 Jimmy Dykes 1930-10-08 PHA STL W 7-1 4 2 2 2 1 0 1 2 2 0 0 3.041
10 Yogi Berra 1960-10-12 NYY PIT W 12-0 5 4 3 3 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 2.997
11 Reggie Jackson 1973-10-20 OAK NYM W 3-1 4 4 1 3 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 2.886
12 Danny Murphy 1911-10-26 PHA NYG W 13-2 4 4 3 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2.847
13 Darrell Porter 1982-10-19 STL MIL W 13-1 4 4 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 2.789
14 Kirby Puckett 1991-10-26 MIN ATL W 4-3 5 4 2 3 0 1 1 3 0 1 0 2.756
15 Mel Ott 1936-10-06 NYG NYY L 5-13 5 4 1 2 1 0 1 3 1 0 0 2.741
16 Dib Williams 1931-10-09 PHA STL W 8-1 4 4 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2.700
17 Terry Pendleton 1991-10-26 ATL MIN L 3-4 5 5 1 4 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 2.685
18 Willie Horton 1968-10-09 DET STL W 13-1 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 1 2.672
19 Marty Barrett 1986-10-25 BOS NYM L 5-6 6 4 1 3 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 2.668
20 Jake Powell 1936-10-06 NYY NYG W 13-5 5 5 3 3 0 0 1 4 0 2 0 2.667
21 Keith Hernandez 1982-10-19 STL MIL W 13-1 5 5 2 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 2.658
22 George Davis 1906-10-14 CHW CHC W 8-3 5 5 2 2 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 2.637
23 Joe Pepitone 1964-10-14 NYY STL W 8-3 4 4 1 1 0 0 1 4 0 1 0 2.568
24 Bernie Carbo 1975-10-21 BOS CIN W 7-6 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 3 0 1 0 2.549
25 Yogi Berra 1957-10-09 NYY MLN W 3-2 4 4 1 3 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 2.547
Rk Player Date Tm Opp Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP RE24
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/27/2011.

*RE24 is the difference in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play.  That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher.

World Series Links: Looking back at various St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers posts

Last July, as I reviewed the best commercials across Major League Baseball, I took a look at the St. Louis Cardinals’ team commercials

After Tony La Russa was re-signed prior to the 2011 season, Ryan wrote an article called, “La Russa is back! Bring in the geezers!” where he scrutinized TLR’s tendency to employ aging infielders.

Several of the Rangers’ players made an appearance in our beloved MLB Look-alikes series:

–       David Murphy and Allan Ruck (link)

–       Josh Hamilton and Cole Hauser (link)

–       Ian Kinsler and Efraim E. Diveroli (link)

–       Ron Washington & Lil’ Ron Washington (link)

Shortly after the Cardinals signed Nick Punto in January, I also examined TLR’s affinity for pocket-sized infielders.

As both Spring Training and the Albert Pujols negotiations reached an end this past spring, Justin argued that Pujols’ impending free agency was bad for baseball.

On the contrary, Griff contended that Pujols’ free agency was good for baseball

Ryan detailed some of Tim McCarver’s (who he deems to be baseball’s worst announcer) finest facepalm moments from World Series past.

I posted the video of the worst commercial of all-time, courtesy of the super-awkward TLR.

We captured Rob on TV during Game 1 of the World Series, right next to David Freese

Just the other day prior to Game 3 in Arlington, I wrote that Allen Craig would torch the Rangers’ left-handed starters, and he made me look like a genius by launching a home run in his first at-bat against Matt Harrison.  Thanks, Allen.

Back when it was still relevant, I explored the significance behind the Rangers’ claws and antlers.