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A Trade, A Fan, and A Story

 

 

Welcome to the big leagues Jeff Luhnow.  A mere six days into his inaugural tenure as a general manager of a Major League franchise Mr. Luhnow has already completed his first trade.  As a fan I’m stoked.  Sure, it might have cost us a cheap and controlled closer, but who cares when you’re only going to win 55-60 games.  We were able to bring back a shortstop that has a higher ceiling than any of the other options left via free agency, and we brought back a young arm that has the potential to be as good as a number 3 starter.  Sweet.

There was still one part of this trade that left me with my mouth just a bit open and my mind grasping at straws…we didn’t shed any of the large salaries we have trade Carlos, Wandy, or Brett.  As a matter of fact, the exact opposite occurred.  Whatever.  After being strong armed in to joining the American League, showing up to prom stag (RE: the Winter Meetings), and having David Stern defecate all over the Houston Rockets, it is nice to be able to say that something positive is happening in Houston sports.[1]  I can handle the fact that the rebuilding process will test my heart and drive for the team.  I can accept that.  What I would not have been able to handle was a blown move right out of the gate.  So it is nice to finally enjoy a victory as an Astros fan- no matter how small that victory may be.

I will be sad to see Mark Melancon leave, though.  Not because of any stats, or because he made one of my outlandish predictions come true, or because of any way he could possibly help the team between the lines.  Melancon will be just fine as a closer.  As he logs more innings his BB/9 will decrease and finally allow his 8K/9 to let him slam the door shut.[2]   No, this break-up is of a more personal shade.  Before Marky Mark was chuckin’ in The Show, he and I were teammates in Tucson.  We were both on the 2004 University of Arizona team that went to the CWS that year.  You can only imagine my excitement when he came to Houston as part of the deal that sent Berkman to the Yankees.  It was pretty cool to have a friend playing for your favorite team.  It was a unique lens from which to view.  But that is neither here nor there.  Honestly, I just wanted to share a quick story about Mark and myself from that 2004 trip to Omaha.  It goes like this…

It was the night after our first game of the tournament- a loss to Georgia- and Mark and I were back at the hotel.  Because I was medical redshirting and not playing I was obviously itching to go out and enjoy the local taverns and watering holes.  Mark tells me that he has some friends from high school in town and I should hang out with them.  One house party, and many sodas later, I find myself back at the hotel approximately 3:30 A.M.  Not quite sure which room was mine I began trying them all.  Then called my girlfriend at the time to find out why she wouldn’t open the door to her apartment.  She immediately realized how lost I was and called Mark, begged relentlessly, and convinced him to find me.  He finds me on the floor below and politely walks me back to the room.  Then Beelzebub reared his true colors.  His eyes locked with mine and I felt his tug on my soul as he yelled something at me about how, “…and If I blow a f—–g save tomorrow I’m going to f—–g kill you!”  Sure enough, the next day Mark, the true freshman, was out there in a win-or-go-home game at the College World Series.  And true to form Marky Mark shoved and made sure we saw another game that season.  It was tits.  Mark, if you ever read this, big ups man.  You deserve everything that comes your way.

 


[1] No, the Texans don’t count for me.  I grew up an Oilers fan and moved out of Houston before the Texans were a team.

[2] Don’t believe me?  Look at the splits for him pre and post All-Star break.  Match that trend with the fact that he is finally throwing his new cutter with much better control and I think you will agree with me.



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Top 50 Prospects: #29 – Jonathan Singleton

#29 Jonathan Singleton

Houston Astros

DOB: 9/18/1991

Previous Rank: 37

ETA: 2014

Singleton was the centerpiece of the deal that sent Hunter Pence to the Philadelphia.  Prior to the trade, Singleton spent time at both first and left.  This ranking is based on the premise that Singleton, despite possessing a grading of 30-40 in the speed tool and a 40-50 arm, ends up playing at least several seasons in the outfield.  Houston seems to prefer him at first, but with new ownership there is some hope that the Astros begin to make better decisions in how they handle their player development.

His bat is outstanding, and he already gets 60s in terms of discipline and hit tool.  The power grade is still just average, but there is enough loft in his cut that he will grow into more bombs as he matures.  As just a 19-year-old, Singleton slashed .298/.392/.441 with 13 dingers and 70 walks in around 520 plate appearances across two stops, finishing up the year in the California League.  He had pretty noticeable splits in favor of his appearances against right-handers as should be expected, but he hangs on well against secondary stuff and is almost always down with his front early enough to stay back with his legs.

Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA
2009 17 Phillies GULF Rk PHI 31 119 100 12 9 0 2 12 1 0 .290
2010 18 Lakewood SALL A PHI 104 450 376 64 25 2 14 77 9 7 .290
2011 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+ PHI,HOU 128 530 449 68 23 1 13 63 3 3 .298
2011 19 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI 93 382 320 48 14 0 9 47 3 3 .284
2011 19 Lancaster CALL A+ HOU 35 148 129 20 9 1 4 16 0 0 .333
3 Seasons 263 1099 925 144 57 3 29 152 13 10 .294
A+ (1 season) A+ 128 530 449 68 23 1 13 63 3 3 .298
A (1 season) A 104 450 376 64 25 2 14 77 9 7 .290
Rk (1 season) Rk 31 119 100 12 9 0 2 12 1 0 .290
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/9/2011.
Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2009 17 Phillies GULF Rk PHI 31 119 100 2 12 18 13 .290 .395 .440 .835 44
2010 18 Lakewood SALL A PHI 104 450 376 14 77 62 74 .290 .393 .479 .872 180
2011 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+ PHI,HOU 128 530 449 13 63 70 123 .298 .392 .441 .833 198
2011 19 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI 93 382 320 9 47 56 83 .284 .387 .413 .800 132
2011 19 Lancaster CALL A+ HOU 35 148 129 4 16 14 40 .333 .405 .512 .917 66
3 Seasons 263 1099 925 29 152 150 210 .294 .393 .456 .849 422
A+ (1 season) A+ 128 530 449 13 63 70 123 .298 .392 .441 .833 198
A (1 season) A 104 450 376 14 77 62 74 .290 .393 .479 .872 180
Rk (1 season) Rk 31 119 100 2 12 18 13 .290 .395 .440 .835 44
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/9/2011.
Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G Ch PO A E DP Fld% RF/G
2009 17 Phillies GULF Rk PHI 1B 25 233 214 17 2 17 .991 9.24
2010 18 Lakewood SALL A PHI 1B 95 885 816 65 4 63 .995 9.27
2011 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+ PHI,HOU 1B 79 637 578 48 11 57 .983 7.92
2011 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+ PHI,HOU DH 18 0.00
2011 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+ PHI,HOU OF 31 52 46 3 3 0 .942 1.58
2011 19 Lancaster CALL A+ HOU 1B 33 268 241 22 5 30 .981 7.97
2011 19 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI 1B 46 369 337 26 6 27 .984 7.89
2011 19 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI LF 30 52 46 3 3 0 .942 1.63
2011 19 Lancaster CALL A+ HOU RF 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
2011 19 Lancaster CALL A+ HOU DH 2 0.00
2011 19 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI DH 16 0.00
2011 19 Lancaster CALL A+ HOU OF 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
2011 19 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI OF 30 52 46 3 3 0 .942 1.63
3 Seasons 248 1807 1654 133 20 137 .989 7.21
1B (3 seasons) 1B 199 1755 1608 130 17 137 .990 8.73
DH (1 season) DH 18 0.00
OF (1 season) OF 31 52 46 3 3 0 .942 1.58
RF (1 season) RF 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
LF (1 season) LF 30 52 46 3 3 0 .942 1.63
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/9/2011.

He takes a direct approach to contact and generates terrific carry with good thump.  Singleton should begin the year in Double-A since his numbers improved in the California League.  A full season there could probably do him some good especially if used in the outfield, but he has the bat and maturity to earn a promotion if his numbers at the dish justify it.  It is highly possible that Singleton reaches Houston by 2013, and he even has an outside shot at a cup this September.  We think Opening Day in 2014 sounds best, though.



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Top 50 Prospects: #47 – Jarred Cosart

#47 Jarred Cosart

Houston Astros

DOB: 5/25/1990

Previous Rank: N/A

ETA: 2013

This report is written under the assumption that Cosart will start in the Majors instead of relieve, as some suggest he is better equipped to do.  Cosart, alongside stud hitter Jonathan Singleton, was dealt at the deadline for Hunter Pence by Philadelphia.  Cosart immediately became the top-pitching prospect in the Astros’ organization and features a 95-97 mph heater that can jump up to 99.

His secondary offerings are at least 50s in terms of stuff, but he does not command them well enough to use in high volume.  At this point, his changeup is a 55 and the curve is a 50 with good shape when he works in front of his body with it.  Cosart has a 6-foot-3 frame with room to add some bulk.  His mechanics range from clean to jerky, but he is athletic and has time to gain consistency with them.

As far as stats go, 2011 was up and down.  He absolutely dominated through the middle of June, got shelled for a month and a half or so, was traded, and finally was promoted to Double-A where he was bad.  On the year his numbers are pretty meaningless, but he was able to keep his ERA near 4.00, take the ball in 26 starts, and strikeout over 100 guys in nearly 145 innings.

Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff W L W-L% ERA G GS CG SHO IP BB SO
2009 19 Phillies GULF Rk PHI 2 2 .500 2.22 7 5 0 0 24.1 7 25
2010 20 Lakewood SALL A PHI 7 3 .700 3.79 14 14 1 1 71.1 16 77
2011 21 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+-AA PHI,HOU 10 10 .500 4.12 27 26 0 0 144.1 56 101
2011 21 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI 9 8 .529 3.92 20 19 0 0 108.0 43 79
2011 21 Corpus Christi TL AA HOU 1 2 .333 4.71 7 7 0 0 36.1 13 22
3 Seasons 19 15 .559 3.82 48 45 1 1 240.0 79 203
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/8/2011.
Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff ERA IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2009 19 Phillies GULF Rk PHI 2.22 24.1 0.781 4.4 0.0 2.6 9.2 3.57
2010 20 Lakewood SALL A PHI 3.79 71.1 1.065 7.6 0.4 2.0 9.7 4.81
2011 21 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+-AA PHI,HOU 4.12 144.1 1.296 8.2 0.7 3.5 6.3 1.80
2011 21 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI 3.92 108.0 1.306 8.2 0.6 3.6 6.6 1.84
2011 21 Corpus Christi TL AA HOU 4.71 36.1 1.266 8.2 1.0 3.2 5.4 1.69
3 Seasons 3.82 240.0 1.175 7.6 0.5 3.0 7.6 2.57
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/8/2011.

I personally don’t see a lot of reason to give these stats too much consideration, though, since his season was so full of off-the-field distractions that he could not control nor impact.  Regardless, Cosart’s position in our top 50 is based on his arm, age, level, and likelihood of assuming a top-of-the-rotation spot within five years.

 

 



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World Series Thoughts and Predictions

With the Fall Classic kicking off tonight, I felt compelled to make my predictions for this exciting World Series. Let me start off by saying that I am rooting for Texas. For starters, as an Astros diehard I would not be able to look myself in the mirror if I rooted for those bastards from the Midwest. Iʼve been raised better than that. Secondly, being from Texas has always allowed me to have a reason to root for an American League team, so long as they were not actually playing my beloved Astros. That appears to be changing though. With news last week of new ownership taking over (finally) and Houston headed for the AL West, this may be my last chance to cheer for the other team from Texas. Unless something drastic happens they will become my new division rival (read: mortal enemy). On the other hand, the Cards will begin fading away as an enemy in my mind. Now I will be able to cheer out loud for Albert Pujols and not have to feel guilty about it. I can watch Lance Berkman and not resent his resurgence, because it will not be at the cost of my team. It seems almost fitting then, that this final series of baseball for 2011 pits my arch nemesis from the past against the arch nemesis of my future. Or, maybe I am just grabbing at air as I try to ascend from the endless abyss known as Astros fandom.

For my predictions:

Rangers win in 7

Josh Hamilton wins MVP with 7 homeruns, including 2 in Game 7.

Changeups and Screwballs: A Southpaw’s Perspective for 9/13/11

-  How bout those Rays?  Can they really pull the rabbit out of the hat and clench a playoff berth?  I mentioned this earlier as a joke, but the Tampa Bay Rays are about to pull a Houdini.

-  But which is more impressive- The Rays surge, or the Boston Red Sox collapse?

-  Good old Manny being Manny again…or is it Manny being Kirby now?  Either way, at least Manny Ramirez’s legacy was already tarnished, right?  Makes this episode just a bit less shocking.

-  I am not sure what all the hullaballo was about MLB not allowing the Mets to wear hats that did not meet the “uniform” requirements as written in the rulebook.  It is a rule people.  And it is not like there were not other ways that the Mets, and every other NFL and MLB team used to show support for all of 9/11.  Sure, they could have shown a little leeway, but then they might be setting a precedent that could cause problems somewhere down the unforeseen road.

-  Someone asked me to describe teaching 6th graders in a single sentence the other day…and this is what I came up with- “Teaching 6th grade is the equivalent of herding cats.”

-  Watching a player begin his decline as a ball player is always difficult.  It is even more difficult when said player has never given anyone a reason to hate.  That said, it will be interesting to see how Ichiro Suzuki‘s 2012 campaign goes.  Is him not reaching 200 hits that big a deal this year?  Does it mark the start of his decline?  Only time will tell.

-  Good luck to Andrew McCutchen while negotiating what hopefully turns out to be a favorable deal with the Pirates.  It’s really exciting to see a team like Pittsburgh rising from their grave.  It gives Astros fans hope.

-  Speaking of the Houston Astros, we currently host 16 rookies on our roster, with 10 of them being pitchers.  Yikes.  Talk about rebuilding.