On the latest installment of The Baseball Show, Clint, MJ, and I discussed the week’s most interesting story lines as well as our usual assortment of nonsense.

We started things off by discussing Yu Darvish and how his signing was inevitable after the Rangers posted a $51.7MM bid, so it’s no surprise that they ultimately paid $111MM.  According to MJ, Darvish would have to produce a 22 WAR over the next six years to justify his price.  But what separates Darvish from previous imports like Hideo Nomo and Dice-K?

We also debate whether or not Darvish will perform like the No. 1 starter that Rangers expect him to be.

We discuss MJ’s Baseball Prospectus debut, “The Advantage of Low Expectations,” which has been well received throughout the baseball blogosphere.

A day after our last show, the Yankees and Mariners conducted a big-time prospect swap, as the Bronx Bombers sent Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to the Mariners for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos.  We evaluate the trade and can’t help but feel that the Yankees were on the winning end of this swap.

Who has received the best return for their starting pitcher this offseason? Although we agree the Padres received a great haul for Mat Latos, we unanimously agree the A’s received the best return this offseason.

And of course, what would The Baseball Show be without “Ask MJ…”

Clint:

Would you take a job in the Angels front office if it were offered to you today?

Yes

Cure for hangover? No booze – note: you can’t say “more booze.”

You’re going to have to find a Waffle House and order the greasiest Cheese Stake plate with hash browns and jalapeños to get through it.

Weirdest thing you’ve ever owned or collected?

I was a huge baseball card fan, but mainly when I was growing up I spent a lot of money on hockey cards for some reason.  I doubt I could get anything for my Pavel Buree rookie card.  I do have an autographed John Smoltz Starting Lineup figurine still in its package.

If you could sit at a bar and have a drink with any three sports figures, who would it be and why?

1)    Mickey Mantle – We’re going to have a good time and hopefully get into some trouble

2)    Wayne Gretzky – He was my hero growing up

3)    Dana White – I like I guy who curses every other word

4)    More so 3a) Mike Trout received an honorable mention provided that MJ can find him a semi-decent fake I.D.

Clint:

1)    Mickey Mantle

2)    Willie Mays, but he’s just an old saltry prick

3)    Joe Nameth – he likes to drink Johnny Walker

4)    Babe Ruth – The more drunk Yankees the better

Mike:

1)    Mickey Mantle

2)    Michael Jordan

3)    Mark Grace

We agree that Vin Scully would have to be there to narrate the entire night.

Mike:

If you could sponsor one BR page, regardless of price, who would it be?

Too easy. I literally sat around waiting for Mike Trout to buy his page. If not, then it would probably be Barry Bonds.

Your favorite Disney movie?

Cinderalla, and you’re not going to believe his response…

Rookie of the Year or the Sandlot?

The Sandlot. No question.

Celery or Celery Salt?

Celery. They should just re-name it “ranch shovel”

Jered Weaver: Long hair or short hair?

Long hair! Come on, he’s a dirt bag.

If you could assume a fake identity, what would it be?

MJ: Viagra Nopantsman, a middle-aged pitcher; Hunter Dye and he’d carry around a shotgun like Omar from The Wire.

CE: Chet Rockwell, 29 yrs old, DH, can’t run

MR: Speechless

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#13 Jurickson Profar

Texas Rangers

DOB: 2/20/1993

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2013

As an 18-year-old in the Sally League, Profar very nearly slashed .290/.390/.500 as an elite fielding shortstop, earning him the SAL MVP.  Holy shit.  He’s really, really good and has so much more to gain before he actually arrives in Arlington.  An aggressive international scouting department was able to sign Profar out of Curacao while he was a 16-year-old.  He made tremendous gains at the plate in 2011 in terms of all three hitters’ tools.  He even walked more times than he struck out.

Profar is an exceptional defender and gets above average grades for his footwork, arm strength, and hand agility.  His bat track from both sides of the plate is textbook and produces quality bat speed and carry.  What’s perhaps most impressive is that he has only been hitting from both sides for two years.  There is nothing to knock with Profar except that he might be a couple inches short.  Get ready, because in a couple of years there is going to be a huge debate about where to put Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler, and Profar, because they all need to be on that diamond.

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#23 Martin Perez

Texas Rangers

DOB: 4/4/1991

Previous Rank: 28

ETA: 2012

Perez finally threw up the stats to back up his enormous potential…and then plummeted back to earth after a promotion to Triple-A.  As one of the top pitchers in the Texas League and quite likely the top lefty, Perez posted a 3.16 ERA in 88.1 innings with 83 strikeouts compared to 36 walks.  While that is far too many walks, those numbers were still way better than any we’d seen thus far from Perez.   He then proceeded to put up a 6.83 ERA with – who really cares what the rest of his numbers were like after giving up that many runs?

Perez has pretty rocky fastball command for a prospect getting this kind of ranking, but his stuff is just too good to rank him any lower.  His fastball reaches the mid-90s, and he has arguably the finest breaking pitch in the Minors in the form of a heavy downer curveball.  It can flash double and triple-plus when it is on and in the zone, and we, like many, are very reluctant to slap an 80 on anything that isn’t a 100 mph heater or a 3.8 sec. to first.  He has a solid to plus changeup as well that shows quality fade and should be plenty to handle righties effectively.

Perez has elite stuff, and with more than a full season in the high Minors under his belt at just 20-years of age, could be a top of the rotation arm.  Reaching that level will require improved fastball command and a more consistent delivery, although the latter is greatly improved relative to what it was as a teenager.  We see a lot of Gio Gonzalez in Perez, and like Gio, Perez could be both an All-Star in the Show and excellent trade bait.

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#31 Robbie Erlin

San Diego Padres

DOB: 10/8/1990

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2012

Erlin was the prize of the Mike Adams deal, and he is perhaps the most unique pitcher of the Top-50.  While many of the elite arms on this list have blazing hot fastballs and need to come up some in terms of commanding pitches and developing useable third pitches, Erlin already has plus secondary offerings and command.  His breaking ball has terrific shape as does his changeup, and he locates both nearly as well as his fastball.

His fastball works in the 88-91 mph range, but can reach 93 mph when he lets one go.  Erlin gets great plane on his pitches despite only being 6-foot, and has fluid, repeatable, and athletic mechanics that should keep him healthy.  His 2.99 ERA across two leagues (including 16 starts in the Texas League) and 154 strikeouts in 147.1 innings reflect just how dominant Erlin can be despite not having prototypical ace stuff.  He only walked 16 guys all season, and despite a bit of a propensity for flyballs, Erlin projects as a very solid No. 2 option in the Show.

In a yard like Petco, it is quite reasonable to expect Erlin to perform like a No. 1.  We expect him to make at least 10-15 starts in Triple-A before being called up, and he will have to continue to prove that his command is good enough to overcome a lack in pace, but we expect him to stick in the Padre rotation for years.

#48 Joseph Wieland

San Diego Padres

DOB: 1/21/90

Previously Ranked: N/A

ETA: 2012

Joe Wieland was part of the deal that sent Mike Adams to Texas, and considering how valuable Adams was to the bullpen in both San Diego and Texas, Wieland is obviously viewed as a future Big League contributor.  We at The Sombrero will go a step further.  Wieland will be a top of the rotation arm for years.  We are talking a solid two in the Show.

His stuff isn’t as imposing as other arms that will crack our top 50, but his command is outrageously good.  He walked 21 guys over 150 innings in 2011 for Christ’s sake.  The strikeout totals were nearly one per inning, and he did a solid job keeping the ball in the yard as well.

Wieland should start the year in San Antonio, but he should move quickly to Triple-A.  There is a very real chance he cracks the rotation in San Diego by the end of 2012.  His fastball reaches 93, and his breaking ball is of the 12-6 variety with quality shape.  Both pitches are solid average to above on their own, but Wieland’s command plays each pitch into the 55-60 range.  His changeup is not used as often, but it has decent fade and should be a solid 50 pitch.  Wieland has an athletic 6-foot-3 frame and very clean and easy mechanics that should allow him to stay reasonably healthy.  This is not an ace arm, but it is the kind of No. 2 that every team wants.