Fantasy analysts are always talking about players that they are “planting their flags in” (Am I supposed to feel dirty when I type that?) each year.  I used to think this was a bad idea, as it might lead to poor draft day decisions.  Now that I am more seasoned I realize that we all develop an affinity for certain players each year.  I’m not talking your studs though.  Anybody can tell you to draft Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, or Roy Halladay.  For me, planting your flag requires you to step out on a limb of sorts.  These are the players that you feel, for whatever reason, are going to be big hits for the upcoming season.  For this article, I want to take a look at three players in which my flag has been metaphorically planted.

Mike Morse:

Last week in my live-blogged mock draft I explained how excited I was about getting Morse on my squad.  I referenced this video clip, and talked about how much I liked his swing.  Well I decided to take it a step further and look to see what his numbers said.  The numbers that caught my eye were his increased line drive rate, coupled with his decreasing ground ball rate.  Match those with an 85% contact rate and I see no reason why he can’t sustain a BABIP similar to his 2011 average of .344.  I predict a .290 average, 30 jacks, 90 RBI, and 70 runs scored.

Bud Norris:

Yes, he pitches for the lowly Astros.  Yes, he probably won’t accumulate many wins.  But if you’re chasing wins as a fantasy strategy, this might not be the website for you.  Not only can you snag Bud late in drafts, you will be getting an amazing bargain when you do.  He lowered his walk total last year, while actually increasing his innings pitched by 33. His 2011 ERA of 3.77 matched perfectly with his xFIP of 3.73.  His k/9 rate sits right at 8.5, and with a swing and miss rate right around 30% I see potential for a true breakout year.  I think Bud finishes the year with 197 IP, 205 K’s, and an ERA of 3.78.

Yoenis Cespedes:

I know, I know, we haven’t even seen him face big league pitching yet.  And to be honest I have no statistical evidence to support this pick.  Sometimes though, you just have to go with your gut.  Blind faith is counter-intuitive to almost everything I believe, but I am also a fan of legalized gaming.  Thus, I have no problem taking a gamble on Cespedes.  I might even reach a few rounds early just to get him.  To win your fantasy league you have to hit at least one grand slam on an unknown player.  For me, this is the guy.  No prediction here.  Just going with my gut that he completely outperforms the value of the draft pick I get him for.

You can follow Griffin on Twitter- his handle is @sp_flips.  Feel free to support, harass, or share any thoughts you have and he will be sure to reply.

---

Subscribe to The Golden Sombrero by Email

---

---

#27 Travis d’Arnaud

Toronto Blue Jays

DOB: 2/10/1989

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2013

d’Arnaud earned MVP honors in the Eastern League in 2011 as a 22-year-old, and seems destined to produce big numbers for Toronto sooner rather than later.  As a key portion of the package that sent Roy Halladay to the Phils, the expectations have been high for d’Arnaud.  He delivered and then some in Double-A, and should open the year ready to torch Triple-A to the same tune that he did the Eastern League, with a call-up to the Jays possible at any time.

However, with J.P. Arencibia seemingly firmly entrenched behind the Toronto dish, d’Arnaud may have to wait until September or even 2013 to arrive at the Rogers Centre.  In 2011 for New Hampshire the former 37^th-overall selection slashed .311/.371/.542 with 21 dingers.  He only walked 33 times, and plate discipline is his worst offensive tool, but he squares the ball up consistently and generates quality lift.  He covers the zone well and hits to all fields, so the lack of walks is less of a concern than it might be with other more pull-oriented hitters.

He is likely going to top out as an average receiver and thrower, and is a 40-45 in both areas now, but his bat is so good that no one will have any problem dealing with that in Toronto.  Despite the fact that the Doc deal also brought the Jays Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor (who was immediately traded to the A’s and debuted in the Show in 2011), d’Arnaud is looking like the best piece that Toronto got in the trade.

---

Subscribe to The Golden Sombrero by Email

---

---

How we voted for National League MVP:

Mike: 1) Kemp  2) Braun  3) Upton  4) Votto  5) Halladay

Griff:  1) Kemp  2) Braun  3) Upton  4) Votto  5) Tulowitzki

Dee:   1) Kemp  2) Braun  3) Votto  4) Upton  5) Halladay

Jim:    1) Kershaw  2) Kemp  3) Braun  4) Votto  5) Upton

Towel:  1) Braun  2) Kemp  3) Upton  4) Votto  5) Pujols

National League Stan Musial Award Final Vote:

1)    Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

2)    Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

3)    Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

4)    Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

5)    Roy Halladay, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

---

Subscribe to The Golden Sombrero by Email

---

---

After each Ranger game this October, the sports fans of my dental school class usually have something to say to me about the previous night/day’s game.  From bullpen usage to pinch hitters, they typically want to hear what I have to say about the decisions being made on and off the field that affect the Rangers and their bid to follow the Mavs as world champs.  I don’t know what or who the Mavs are, but apparently they won something called the NBA Finals last summer just as baseball season was about to break for All-Star festivities.   If you’ve been reading my stuff on this site for long, you know that October is the worst month at the Baylor College of Dentistry each month.  It is referred to as Black October because it is full of midterm exams, progress exams, presentations, etc.  Nevertheless, for me at least, whatever is happening at school must take a backseat to whatever is happening in baseball.  Two nights ago I had to move my bedroom TV into the living room so I could watch both LCS games and simultaneously study for my pediatrics exam, which I had at 7:40 the following morning.  I surely did quite poorly on the exam, but I also was able to watch two pretty fantastic games.  Perspectives, right?

The baseball fans of my class as well as several faculty members and their baseball-related questions make my experience at dental school much more enjoyable, and, despite the fact that BCD tries so hard to make October suck, this month is still the best month of the year.  2011 is uniquely terrific because such a high percentage of the game’s truly elite hitters and pitchers were/are on playoff teams.  Evan Longoria, David Price, CC, Doc, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Chase Utley, Robinson Cano, Tex, Grandelay, Justin Upton, James Shields, and those are just some of the guys who have already been eliminated.  The remaining players and teams are so evenly matched and the games have been so competitive that the baseball world has been collectively drooling since the last week of September.

As we watch the NFL and NBA unions collectively fail their fans and their sports altogether, we baseball fans are reminded this time of year how lucky we are that we have the game that we do.  Honestly, how is the NFL players’ union going to allow for HGH testing?  That league is in very serious danger.  What NFL player isn’t on H?  The kickers?  Maybe.  And the NBA has already cancelled games because of labor disputes.  This might be baseball’s chance to take back what it is rightly due, the hearts of sports fans nationwide.

What we baseball nuts can do for the sport during this month is realize that no matter what is going on in our lives, we must continue to make time for the game.  The people we surround ourselves with on a daily basis must constantly be reminded how awesome the game is and how lucky we are to have a month long holiday where we are encouraged to celebrate it.  So as the World Series approaches and with both LCS’s very evenly matched and close, remember how lucky we are to have a game to follow that provides us thousands of games a year at the highest level to follow and love.  This is the culmination of another terrific year.  Thanks for reading The Sombrero and sticking with us as Arlo worked through whatever malware bullshit was going on here a couple of weeks ago.  Happy October baseball fans!

-  I am finally sold on Ian Kennedy.  Dude has won more games this year than he has in his entire big league career.  And after watching him strike out six in a row in the 7^th and 8^th innings last night, I just can’t ignore the impression it left upon me.  He is no Cy Young winner this year, in my opinion, but that doesn’t mean you can’t make a strong argument for him.

-  With the Brew Crew signing Ryan Braun to the deal they did, the writing is basically on the wall for Prince Fielder to read.  And he has.  The thing of it is, I’m not sure the market for a $100 million first baseman is what people believe it to be.  Look at all the usual big spenders, and see that they all have their own pricey 1B’s already.  I’m just saying that the market for Fielder is much smaller than people might realize.

-  Is Brad Pitt not the most Ironic actor to portray Billy Beane in the upcoming movie Moneyball?  Seriously, you can’t help but chuckle at that.

-  Here is some neat trivia for you- Do you know who holds the highest era for a single season?  That’s right, it is Roy Halladay, who posted an atrocious 10.64 era for the 2000 season.  Now pick your chin up off the ground and continue reading. (Author’s note: Now Brian Matusz is the owner of this prestigious award; he is sporting an era of 10.68-congrats to you sir.)

-  What kind of baseball blogger would I be if I didn’t have a mention of Mariano Rivera and his record 602 saves in here?  I am still mesmerized by the fact that he has gotten every last one of those in pinstripes.

-  How about those St. Louis Cardinals?  They might actually pull off their own comeback and rip the wild card spot right out of the Braves hands.  After writing about the lack of tight races, the game of baseball is making me eat my words.

-  If you had to take one of these starting pitchers and run them out on the bump, whom would you rather have: John Lackey or A.J. Burnett?  Me, I’d rather let the mascot go out there and see what he can do…in his costume, too.