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Golden Sombrero: Matt Joyce (4/6/2012)

Date: April 6, 2012

Bottom 2: Matt Joyce struck out swinging against C.C. Sabathia (6 pitches)

Bottom 4: Joyce struck out swinging against Sabathia (4 pitches)

Bottom 6: Joyce struck out swinging against Sabathia (5 pitches)

Bottom 8: Called out on strikes against David Robertson (5 pitches)

Final Line: 0-for-4, 4 K 

RE24: -1.1

WPA: -0.222

Notes: Clearly an off night for Joyce, who batted ninth in Joe Maddon’s ever-changing lineup mash-up. Okay, so he can’t really hit left-handers. But that doesn’t explain why Jeff Keppinger hit cleanup.

Total 2012 Sombreros: 3

 

The Baseball Show: The Yu Darvish Edition

On the latest installment of The Baseball Show, Clint, MJ, and I discussed the week’s most interesting story lines as well as our usual assortment of nonsense.

We started things off by discussing Yu Darvish and how his signing was inevitable after the Rangers posted a $51.7MM bid, so it’s no surprise that they ultimately paid $111MM.  According to MJ, Darvish would have to produce a 22 WAR over the next six years to justify his price.  But what separates Darvish from previous imports like Hideo Nomo and Dice-K?

We also debate whether or not Darvish will perform like the No. 1 starter that Rangers expect him to be.

We discuss MJ’s Baseball Prospectus debut, “The Advantage of Low Expectations,” which has been well received throughout the baseball blogosphere.

A day after our last show, the Yankees and Mariners conducted a big-time prospect swap, as the Bronx Bombers sent Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to the Mariners for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos.  We evaluate the trade and can’t help but feel that the Yankees were on the winning end of this swap.

Who has received the best return for their starting pitcher this offseason? Although we agree the Padres received a great haul for Mat Latos, we unanimously agree the A’s received the best return this offseason.

And of course, what would The Baseball Show be without “Ask MJ…”

Clint:

Would you take a job in the Angels front office if it were offered to you today?

Yes

Cure for hangover? No booze – note: you can’t say “more booze.”

You’re going to have to find a Waffle House and order the greasiest Cheese Stake plate with hash browns and jalapeños to get through it.

Weirdest thing you’ve ever owned or collected?

I was a huge baseball card fan, but mainly when I was growing up I spent a lot of money on hockey cards for some reason.  I doubt I could get anything for my Pavel Buree rookie card.  I do have an autographed John Smoltz Starting Lineup figurine still in its package.

If you could sit at a bar and have a drink with any three sports figures, who would it be and why?

1)    Mickey Mantle – We’re going to have a good time and hopefully get into some trouble

2)    Wayne Gretzky – He was my hero growing up

3)    Dana White – I like I guy who curses every other word

4)    More so 3a) Mike Trout received an honorable mention provided that MJ can find him a semi-decent fake I.D.

Clint:

1)    Mickey Mantle

2)    Willie Mays, but he’s just an old saltry prick

3)    Joe Nameth – he likes to drink Johnny Walker

4)    Babe Ruth – The more drunk Yankees the better

Mike:

1)    Mickey Mantle

2)    Michael Jordan

3)    Mark Grace

We agree that Vin Scully would have to be there to narrate the entire night.

Mike:

If you could sponsor one BR page, regardless of price, who would it be?

Too easy. I literally sat around waiting for Mike Trout to buy his page. If not, then it would probably be Barry Bonds.

Your favorite Disney movie?

Cinderalla, and you’re not going to believe his response…

Rookie of the Year or the Sandlot?

The Sandlot. No question.

Celery or Celery Salt?

Celery. They should just re-name it “ranch shovel”

Jered Weaver: Long hair or short hair?

Long hair! Come on, he’s a dirt bag.

If you could assume a fake identity, what would it be?

MJ: Viagra Nopantsman, a middle-aged pitcher; Hunter Dye and he’d carry around a shotgun like Omar from The Wire.

CE: Chet Rockwell, 29 yrs old, DH, can’t run

MR: Speechless


Top 50 Prospects: #10 – Jesus Montero

#10 Jesus Montero

Seattle Mariners

DOB: 11/28/1989

Previous Rank: 7

ETA: 2011

As the centerpiece of the deal that sent Michael Pineda, a power arm in his early 20s that has already been named to an All-Star team, Montero obviously has earned himself quite a reputation already.  This trade is further evidence of the reevaluation that is taking place with regards to the relative worth of premier bats and premier arms.  Additionally this represents the second consecutive season in which the Mariners have managed to land a hitter in our top 10.

Montero blew up at Yankee Stadium, slashing .328/.406/.590 in 61 at-bats during the Yanks’ playoff push.  While no one expects him to immediately hit that way to open 2012, and he notoriously starts slow regardless, that slash line is not impossible or even unlikely for the 22-year-old catcher/1B/DH/?.

Year Age Tm Lg Lev G PA AB R 2B 3B HR RBI BA
2007 17 Yankees GULF Rk 33 123 107 13 6 0 3 19 .280
2008 18 Charleston SALL A 132 569 525 86 34 1 17 87 .326
2009 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+-AA 92 379 347 45 25 1 17 70 .337
2009 19 Tampa FLOR A+ 48 198 180 26 15 1 8 37 .356
2009 19 Trenton EL AA 44 181 167 19 10 0 9 33 .317
2010 20 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre IL AAA 123 504 453 66 34 3 21 75 .289
2011 21 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre IL AAA 109 463 420 52 19 1 18 67 .288
5 Seasons 489 2038 1852 262 118 6 76 318 .308
AAA (2 seasons) AAA 232 967 873 118 53 4 39 142 .289
A (1 season) A 132 569 525 86 34 1 17 87 .326
AA (1 season) AA 44 181 167 19 10 0 9 33 .317
Rk (1 season) Rk 33 123 107 13 6 0 3 19 .280
A+ (1 season) A+ 48 198 180 26 15 1 8 37 .356
Year Age Tm Lg Lev G PA AB HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2007 17 Yankees GULF Rk 33 123 107 3 19 12 18 .280 .366 .421 .786 45
2008 18 Charleston SALL A 132 569 525 17 87 37 83 .326 .376 .491 .868 258
2009 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+-AA 92 379 347 17 70 28 47 .337 .389 .562 .951 195
2009 19 Tampa FLOR A+ 48 198 180 8 37 14 26 .356 .406 .583 .989 105
2009 19 Trenton EL AA 44 181 167 9 33 14 21 .317 .370 .539 .909 90
2010 20 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre IL AAA 123 504 453 21 75 46 91 .289 .353 .517 .870 234
2011 21 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre IL AAA 109 463 420 18 67 36 98 .288 .348 .467 .814 196
5 Seasons 489 2038 1852 76 318 159 337 .308 .366 .501 .867 928
AAA (2 seasons) AAA 232 967 873 39 142 82 189 .289 .351 .493 .843 430
A (1 season) A 132 569 525 17 87 37 83 .326 .376 .491 .868 258
AA (1 season) AA 44 181 167 9 33 14 21 .317 .370 .539 .909 90
Rk (1 season) Rk 33 123 107 3 19 12 18 .280 .366 .421 .786 45
A+ (1 season) A+ 48 198 180 8 37 14 26 .356 .406 .583 .989 105
Year Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2007 17 NYY-min 33 123 107 13 30 6 3 19 12 18 .280 .366 .421 .786
2008 18 NYY-min 132 569 525 86 171 34 17 87 37 83 .326 .376 .491 .868
2009 19 NYY-min 92 379 347 45 117 25 17 70 28 47 .337 .389 .562 .951
2010 20 NYY-min 123 504 453 66 131 34 21 75 46 91 .289 .353 .517 .870
2011 21 NYY-min 109 463 420 52 121 19 18 67 36 98 .288 .348 .467 .814
2011 21 NYY 18 69 61 9 20 4 4 12 7 17 .328 .406 .590 .996
1 Season 18 69 61 9 20 4 4 12 7 17 .328 .406 .590 .996
162 Game Avg. 162 621 549 81 180 36 36 108 63 153 .328 .406 .590 .996

We at The Sombrero expect Montero to be used a lot like Victor Martinez was used in 2011 with Detroit.  Everyone is fully aware of Montero’s struggles behind the dish and the unlikely prognosis of him ever even reaching replacement level status as a backstop.  Montero is slow, uninterested, and inaccurate behind the dish.  He calls a poor game and is likely to be bad defensively no matter where he plays.  The logical play is to put him wherever he can do the least damage on the defensive end. He is plus to double-plus in both the hit and power tools as well as the eye tool.

It remains to be seen exactly what Seattle intends to do with Montero given the presence of Justin Smoak at first, suggesting that some time behind the dish might be expected in 2012.  Wherever he plays, Montero is an All-Star-caliber player and needs absolutely no more seasoning on the farm.  He should open 2012 hitting somewhere near or within the middle of Seattle’s order.

Top 50 Prospects: #26 – Manny Banuelos

#26 Manny Banuelos

New York Yankees

DOB: 3/13/1991

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2012

Don’t look now, but it appears the Yankees will graduate a quality young starting pitcher to the Big Leagues for the second consecutive season.  Banuelos’ 5-foot-11 and 155-pound frame certainly does not ooze projection, but the southpaw can reach back for 95 mph when he needs it and cruises at 92-94 mph most nights.

Because his command is shaky (52 walks in under 160 innings), most evaluators prefer him at the lower end, but he should improve as he matures.  His secondary stuff has great action in the form of a changeup with sharp fade and a heavy, digging breaking ball.  He can afford to come up a little in terms of command with all of his pitches, but the stuff is there.

Year Age Tm Lg Lev W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP BB SO
2008 17 Yankees GULF Rk 4 1 2.57 12 3 0 0 42.0 13 37
2009 18 2 Teams 2 Lgs A-A+ 9 5 2.64 26 19 0 0 109.0 28 106
2009 18 Charleston SALL A 9 5 2.67 25 19 0 0 108.0 28 104
2009 18 Tampa FLOR A+ 0 0 0.00 1 0 0 0 1.0 0 2
2010 19 3 Teams 3 Lgs A+-AA-Rk 0 4 2.51 15 15 0 0 64.2 25 85
2010 19 Yankees GULF Rk 0 0 1.80 2 2 0 0 5.0 3 6
2010 19 Tampa FLOR A+ 0 3 2.23 10 10 0 0 44.1 14 62
2010 19 Trenton EL AA 0 1 3.52 3 3 0 0 15.1 8 17
2011 20 2 Teams 2 Lgs AA-AAA 6 7 3.75 27 27 1 1 129.2 71 125
2011 20 Trenton EL AA 4 5 3.59 20 20 0 0 95.1 52 94
2011 20 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre IL AAA 2 2 4.19 7 7 1 1 34.1 19 31
4 Seasons 19 17 3.02 80 64 1 1 345.1 137 353
AA (2 seasons) AA 4 6 3.58 23 23 0 0 110.2 60 111
Rk (2 seasons) Rk 4 1 2.49 14 5 0 0 47.0 16 43
A+ (2 seasons) A+ 0 3 2.18 11 10 0 0 45.1 14 64
A (1 season) A 9 5 2.67 25 19 0 0 108.0 28 104
AAA (1 season) AAA 2 2 4.19 7 7 1 1 34.1 19 31
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/13/2011.
Year Age Tm Lg Lev W L ERA IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2008 17 Yankees GULF Rk 4 1 2.57 42.0 1.071 6.9 0.6 2.8 7.9 2.85
2009 18 2 Teams 2 Lgs A-A+ 9 5 2.64 109.0 1.064 7.3 0.3 2.3 8.8 3.79
2009 18 Charleston SALL A 9 5 2.67 108.0 1.074 7.3 0.3 2.3 8.7 3.71
2009 18 Tampa FLOR A+ 0 0 0.00 1.0 0.000 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.0
2010 19 3 Teams 3 Lgs A+-AA-Rk 0 4 2.51 64.2 1.222 7.5 0.4 3.5 11.8 3.40
2010 19 Yankees GULF Rk 0 0 1.80 5.0 0.800 1.8 0.0 5.4 10.8 2.00
2010 19 Tampa FLOR A+ 0 3 2.23 44.1 1.173 7.7 0.2 2.8 12.6 4.43
2010 19 Trenton EL AA 0 1 3.52 15.1 1.500 8.8 1.2 4.7 10.0 2.13
2011 20 2 Teams 2 Lgs AA-AAA 6 7 3.75 129.2 1.550 9.0 0.6 4.9 8.7 1.76
2011 20 Trenton EL AA 4 5 3.59 95.1 1.531 8.9 0.7 4.9 8.9 1.81
2011 20 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre IL AAA 2 2 4.19 34.1 1.602 9.4 0.5 5.0 8.1 1.63
4 Seasons 19 17 3.02 345.1 1.277 7.9 0.5 3.6 9.2 2.58
AA (2 seasons) AA 4 6 3.58 110.2 1.527 8.9 0.7 4.9 9.0 1.85
Rk (2 seasons) Rk 4 1 2.49 47.0 1.043 6.3 0.6 3.1 8.2 2.69
A+ (2 seasons) A+ 0 3 2.18 45.1 1.147 7.5 0.2 2.8 12.7 4.57
A (1 season) A 9 5 2.67 108.0 1.074 7.3 0.3 2.3 8.7 3.71
AAA (1 season) AAA 2 2 4.19 34.1 1.602 9.4 0.5 5.0 8.1 1.63
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/13/2011.

Between Double-A and Triple-A, Banuelos posted a 3.75 ERA and recorded nearly as many strikeouts as innings pitched.  He is not quite ready for the AL East, but the Yankees will be pressed to give him a shot out of Spring Training, We think he belongs back in the International League for a couple of months until he proves his fastball command is ready for the Show.  I’m usually far more conservative in projecting guys who cannot command their fastballs, but 20-year-old lefties with this kind of stuff are hard not to fall in love with.

Top 50 Prospects: #30 – Arodys Vizcaino

#30 Arodys Vizcaino

Atlanta Braves

DOB: 11/13/1990

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2012

Due to the Braves’ outstanding mismanagement of the bullpen in Atlanta, they were forced to temporarily convert Vizcaino into a reliever for the last few months of the season.  He made 17 appearances for Atlanta and walked too many guys, but was otherwise effective and posted a 4.67 ERA and struck out nearly a guy an inning.

Year Age Tm Lg W L ERA G GS IP BB SO
2008 17 NYY-min Rk 3 2 3.68 12 6 44.0 13 48
2009 18 NYY-min A- 2 4 2.13 10 10 42.1 15 52
2010 19 ATL-min A,A+ 9 4 2.74 17 17 85.1 12 79
2011 20 ATL-min AA,A+,AAA 5 5 3.06 26 17 97.0 28 100
2011 20 ATL NL 1 1 4.67 17 0 17.1 9 17
1 Season 1 1 4.67 17 0 17.1 9 17
162 Game Avg. 4 4 4.67 68 0 69 36 68
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/8/2011.
Year Age Tm Lg W L ERA IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2008 17 NYY-min Rk 3 2 3.68 44.0 1.159 7.8 1.0 2.7 9.8 3.69
2009 18 NYY-min A- 2 4 2.13 42.1 1.157 7.2 0.4 3.2 11.1 3.47
2010 19 ATL-min A,A+ 9 4 2.74 85.1 1.066 8.3 0.2 1.3 8.3 6.58
2011 20 ATL-min AA,A+,AAA 5 5 3.06 97.0 1.134 7.6 0.6 2.6 9.3 3.57
2011 20 ATL NL 1 1 4.67 17.1 1.442 8.3 0.5 4.7 8.8 1.89
1 Season 1 1 4.67 17.1 1.442 8.3 0.5 4.7 8.8 1.89
162 Game Avg. 4 4 4.67 69 1.442 8.3 0.5 4.7 8.8 1.89
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/8/2011.

For a 20-year-old in a playoff race, those numbers are pretty impressive.  The problem now is that the Braves will have to make a difficult decision in terms of how to use Vizcaino in 2012, and the organization has never shown a propensity for patience.  We at the Sombrero are under the impression that the Braves will force Vizcaino into a bullpen role to open 2012, offering themselves almost zero flexibility in how they use him for the season.

The righty tossed 114.1 innings in 2011 and could probably jump to around 130-150 in 2012 if used as a starter with a chance of reaching 200 innings by 2014 health permitting.  The Braves could also use him in 2012 in what will mostly be low-leverage seventh inning outings and stall his development by at least a year.

Vizcaino has a fastball that reaches the upper-90s, but sits in the 93-95 mph range.  He is a tad under-sized, so there is less plane to his stuff than we prefer.  However, he gets some ride to his fastball on the arm side, and his breaker is a true 60 pitch.  His third pitch is a changeup that currently is average, but he hasn’t used it often enough because he spent so much time in the pen.

With 15-20 starts in the high Minors, it is very possible that Vizcaino could reemerge in Atlanta with three plus or better pitches and improved command making him an immediate impact arm in the NL East.