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Top 50 Prospects: #27 – Travis d’Arnaud

#27 Travis d’Arnaud

Toronto Blue Jays

DOB: 2/10/1989

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2013

d’Arnaud earned MVP honors in the Eastern League in 2011 as a 22-year-old, and seems destined to produce big numbers for Toronto sooner rather than later.  As a key portion of the package that sent Roy Halladay to the Phils, the expectations have been high for d’Arnaud.  He delivered and then some in Double-A, and should open the year ready to torch Triple-A to the same tune that he did the Eastern League, with a call-up to the Jays possible at any time.

However, with J.P. Arencibia seemingly firmly entrenched behind the Toronto dish, d’Arnaud may have to wait until September or even 2013 to arrive at the Rogers Centre.  In 2011 for New Hampshire the former 37th-overall selection slashed .311/.371/.542 with 21 dingers.  He only walked 33 times, and plate discipline is his worst offensive tool, but he squares the ball up consistently and generates quality lift.  He covers the zone well and hits to all fields, so the lack of walks is less of a concern than it might be with other more pull-oriented hitters.

Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA
2007 18 Phillies GULF Rk PHI 41 151 141 18 3 0 4 20 4 2 .241
2008 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A–A PHI 64 267 239 33 18 1 6 30 1 2 .305
2008 19 Williamsport NYPL A- PHI 48 197 175 21 13 1 4 25 1 2 .309
2008 19 Lakewood SALL A PHI 16 70 64 12 5 0 2 5 0 0 .297
2009 20 Lakewood SALL A PHI 126 540 482 71 38 1 13 71 8 4 .255
2010 21 Dunedin FLOR A+ TOR 71 292 263 36 20 1 6 38 3 1 .259
2011 22 New Hampshire EL AA TOR 114 466 424 72 33 1 21 78 4 2 .311
5 Seasons 416 1716 1549 230 112 4 50 237 20 11 .278
A (2 seasons) A 142 610 546 83 43 1 15 76 8 4 .260
AA (1 season) AA 114 466 424 72 33 1 21 78 4 2 .311
Rk (1 season) Rk 41 151 141 18 3 0 4 20 4 2 .241
A- (1 season) A- 48 197 175 21 13 1 4 25 1 2 .309
A+ (1 season) A+ 71 292 263 36 20 1 6 38 3 1 .259
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/11/2011.
Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2007 18 Phillies GULF Rk PHI 41 151 141 4 20 4 23 .241 .278 .348 .626 49
2008 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A–A PHI 64 267 239 6 30 23 39 .305 .367 .464 .831 111
2008 19 Williamsport NYPL A- PHI 48 197 175 4 25 18 29 .309 .371 .463 .833 81
2008 19 Lakewood SALL A PHI 16 70 64 2 5 5 10 .297 .357 .469 .826 30
2009 20 Lakewood SALL A PHI 126 540 482 13 71 41 75 .255 .319 .419 .738 202
2010 21 Dunedin FLOR A+ TOR 71 292 263 6 38 20 63 .259 .315 .411 .726 108
2011 22 New Hampshire EL AA TOR 114 466 424 21 78 33 100 .311 .371 .542 .914 230
5 Seasons 416 1716 1549 50 237 121 300 .278 .336 .452 .788 700
A (2 seasons) A 142 610 546 15 76 46 85 .260 .323 .425 .748 232
AA (1 season) AA 114 466 424 21 78 33 100 .311 .371 .542 .914 230
Rk (1 season) Rk 41 151 141 4 20 4 23 .241 .278 .348 .626 49
A- (1 season) A- 48 197 175 4 25 18 29 .309 .371 .463 .833 81
A+ (1 season) A+ 71 292 263 6 38 20 63 .259 .315 .411 .726 108
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/11/2011.
Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G Ch PO A E DP Fld% RF/G PB SB CS CS%
2007 18 Phillies GULF Rk PHI C 23 182 167 11 4 0 .978 7.74 7 19 6 24%
2008 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A–A PHI C 58 504 453 41 10 1 .980 8.52 16 58 14 19%
2008 19 Williamsport NYPL A- PHI C 42 367 330 31 6 0 .984 8.60 11 41 12 23%
2008 19 Lakewood SALL A PHI C 16 137 123 10 4 1 .971 8.31 5 17 2 11%
2009 20 Lakewood SALL A PHI C 99 891 817 68 6 7 .993 8.94 9 132 40 23%
2010 21 Dunedin FLOR A+ TOR C 58 467 427 38 2 3 .996 8.02 2 38 16 30%
2011 22 New Hampshire EL AA TOR C 98 838 775 57 6 7 .993 8.49 13 66 24 27%
2011 22 New Hampshire EL AA TOR DH 14 0.00
5 Seasons 350 2882 2639 215 28 18 .990 8.15 47 313 100 24%
C (5 seasons) C 336 2882 2639 215 28 18 .990 8.49 47 313 100 24%
DH (1 season) DH 14 0.00
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/11/2011.

He is likely going to top out as an average receiver and thrower, and is a 40-45 in both areas now, but his bat is so good that no one will have any problem dealing with that in Toronto.  Despite the fact that the Doc deal also brought the Jays Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor (who was immediately traded to the A’s and debuted in the Show in 2011), d’Arnaud is looking like the best piece that Toronto got in the trade.

Top 50 Prospects: #29 – Jonathan Singleton

#29 Jonathan Singleton

Houston Astros

DOB: 9/18/1991

Previous Rank: 37

ETA: 2014

Singleton was the centerpiece of the deal that sent Hunter Pence to the Philadelphia.  Prior to the trade, Singleton spent time at both first and left.  This ranking is based on the premise that Singleton, despite possessing a grading of 30-40 in the speed tool and a 40-50 arm, ends up playing at least several seasons in the outfield.  Houston seems to prefer him at first, but with new ownership there is some hope that the Astros begin to make better decisions in how they handle their player development.

His bat is outstanding, and he already gets 60s in terms of discipline and hit tool.  The power grade is still just average, but there is enough loft in his cut that he will grow into more bombs as he matures.  As just a 19-year-old, Singleton slashed .298/.392/.441 with 13 dingers and 70 walks in around 520 plate appearances across two stops, finishing up the year in the California League.  He had pretty noticeable splits in favor of his appearances against right-handers as should be expected, but he hangs on well against secondary stuff and is almost always down with his front early enough to stay back with his legs.

Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA
2009 17 Phillies GULF Rk PHI 31 119 100 12 9 0 2 12 1 0 .290
2010 18 Lakewood SALL A PHI 104 450 376 64 25 2 14 77 9 7 .290
2011 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+ PHI,HOU 128 530 449 68 23 1 13 63 3 3 .298
2011 19 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI 93 382 320 48 14 0 9 47 3 3 .284
2011 19 Lancaster CALL A+ HOU 35 148 129 20 9 1 4 16 0 0 .333
3 Seasons 263 1099 925 144 57 3 29 152 13 10 .294
A+ (1 season) A+ 128 530 449 68 23 1 13 63 3 3 .298
A (1 season) A 104 450 376 64 25 2 14 77 9 7 .290
Rk (1 season) Rk 31 119 100 12 9 0 2 12 1 0 .290
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/9/2011.
Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2009 17 Phillies GULF Rk PHI 31 119 100 2 12 18 13 .290 .395 .440 .835 44
2010 18 Lakewood SALL A PHI 104 450 376 14 77 62 74 .290 .393 .479 .872 180
2011 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+ PHI,HOU 128 530 449 13 63 70 123 .298 .392 .441 .833 198
2011 19 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI 93 382 320 9 47 56 83 .284 .387 .413 .800 132
2011 19 Lancaster CALL A+ HOU 35 148 129 4 16 14 40 .333 .405 .512 .917 66
3 Seasons 263 1099 925 29 152 150 210 .294 .393 .456 .849 422
A+ (1 season) A+ 128 530 449 13 63 70 123 .298 .392 .441 .833 198
A (1 season) A 104 450 376 14 77 62 74 .290 .393 .479 .872 180
Rk (1 season) Rk 31 119 100 2 12 18 13 .290 .395 .440 .835 44
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/9/2011.
Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G Ch PO A E DP Fld% RF/G
2009 17 Phillies GULF Rk PHI 1B 25 233 214 17 2 17 .991 9.24
2010 18 Lakewood SALL A PHI 1B 95 885 816 65 4 63 .995 9.27
2011 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+ PHI,HOU 1B 79 637 578 48 11 57 .983 7.92
2011 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+ PHI,HOU DH 18 0.00
2011 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+ PHI,HOU OF 31 52 46 3 3 0 .942 1.58
2011 19 Lancaster CALL A+ HOU 1B 33 268 241 22 5 30 .981 7.97
2011 19 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI 1B 46 369 337 26 6 27 .984 7.89
2011 19 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI LF 30 52 46 3 3 0 .942 1.63
2011 19 Lancaster CALL A+ HOU RF 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
2011 19 Lancaster CALL A+ HOU DH 2 0.00
2011 19 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI DH 16 0.00
2011 19 Lancaster CALL A+ HOU OF 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
2011 19 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI OF 30 52 46 3 3 0 .942 1.63
3 Seasons 248 1807 1654 133 20 137 .989 7.21
1B (3 seasons) 1B 199 1755 1608 130 17 137 .990 8.73
DH (1 season) DH 18 0.00
OF (1 season) OF 31 52 46 3 3 0 .942 1.58
RF (1 season) RF 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
LF (1 season) LF 30 52 46 3 3 0 .942 1.63
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/9/2011.

He takes a direct approach to contact and generates terrific carry with good thump.  Singleton should begin the year in Double-A since his numbers improved in the California League.  A full season there could probably do him some good especially if used in the outfield, but he has the bat and maturity to earn a promotion if his numbers at the dish justify it.  It is highly possible that Singleton reaches Houston by 2013, and he even has an outside shot at a cup this September.  We think Opening Day in 2014 sounds best, though.

Top 50 Prospects: #47 – Jarred Cosart

#47 Jarred Cosart

Houston Astros

DOB: 5/25/1990

Previous Rank: N/A

ETA: 2013

This report is written under the assumption that Cosart will start in the Majors instead of relieve, as some suggest he is better equipped to do.  Cosart, alongside stud hitter Jonathan Singleton, was dealt at the deadline for Hunter Pence by Philadelphia.  Cosart immediately became the top-pitching prospect in the Astros’ organization and features a 95-97 mph heater that can jump up to 99.

His secondary offerings are at least 50s in terms of stuff, but he does not command them well enough to use in high volume.  At this point, his changeup is a 55 and the curve is a 50 with good shape when he works in front of his body with it.  Cosart has a 6-foot-3 frame with room to add some bulk.  His mechanics range from clean to jerky, but he is athletic and has time to gain consistency with them.

As far as stats go, 2011 was up and down.  He absolutely dominated through the middle of June, got shelled for a month and a half or so, was traded, and finally was promoted to Double-A where he was bad.  On the year his numbers are pretty meaningless, but he was able to keep his ERA near 4.00, take the ball in 26 starts, and strikeout over 100 guys in nearly 145 innings.

Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff W L W-L% ERA G GS CG SHO IP BB SO
2009 19 Phillies GULF Rk PHI 2 2 .500 2.22 7 5 0 0 24.1 7 25
2010 20 Lakewood SALL A PHI 7 3 .700 3.79 14 14 1 1 71.1 16 77
2011 21 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+-AA PHI,HOU 10 10 .500 4.12 27 26 0 0 144.1 56 101
2011 21 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI 9 8 .529 3.92 20 19 0 0 108.0 43 79
2011 21 Corpus Christi TL AA HOU 1 2 .333 4.71 7 7 0 0 36.1 13 22
3 Seasons 19 15 .559 3.82 48 45 1 1 240.0 79 203
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/8/2011.
Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff ERA IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2009 19 Phillies GULF Rk PHI 2.22 24.1 0.781 4.4 0.0 2.6 9.2 3.57
2010 20 Lakewood SALL A PHI 3.79 71.1 1.065 7.6 0.4 2.0 9.7 4.81
2011 21 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+-AA PHI,HOU 4.12 144.1 1.296 8.2 0.7 3.5 6.3 1.80
2011 21 Clearwater FLOR A+ PHI 3.92 108.0 1.306 8.2 0.6 3.6 6.6 1.84
2011 21 Corpus Christi TL AA HOU 4.71 36.1 1.266 8.2 1.0 3.2 5.4 1.69
3 Seasons 3.82 240.0 1.175 7.6 0.5 3.0 7.6 2.57
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/8/2011.

I personally don’t see a lot of reason to give these stats too much consideration, though, since his season was so full of off-the-field distractions that he could not control nor impact.  Regardless, Cosart’s position in our top 50 is based on his arm, age, level, and likelihood of assuming a top-of-the-rotation spot within five years.

 

 

Changeups and Screwballs: A Southpaw’s Perspective for 9/6/11

I hope everyone enjoyed his or her holiday weekend as much as I did.  Lots of exciting things happening over Labor Day weekend, so let’s jump right in.

- I finally caved and joined Twitter.  Follow me @sp_flips to get up to date info and nonsense.

- So much for having a bunch of exciting finishes across multiple divisions this year.  With the Giants, Indians, White Sox, and Cardinals failing to gain any ground whatsoever; it appears as if the only exciting race might be the AL West.  Unless the Rays can somehow make a run for the wildcard in the AL East, that is.

- George who?  Kottaras? What a special night it was for the back-up catcher.  Hitting for the cycle is rare enough, but how rare is it to see a back up catcher do it?  I am not completely sure, just sure enough to say that you probably won’t see it happen again in your lifetime.

- Seeing old Charlie Manuel play a game under protest took me back to my youth summer league days.  Did he have to put up a $100 cash like my coaches did?  Or do you think the front office covered it for him?

- Congrats to Adrian Beltre- now the youngest 3B to ever amass 2,000 hits.  Just imagine what could be if he knew how to stay healthy?  Wow.

- Watching Josh Beckett go down was rough.  Not only does he play on my fantasy squad, but he also proliferated the notion that pitchers are not athletes.  Just watch this and tell me where/how he hurt himself. (FF to the 21-second mark.)

- How about Javier Vazquez?  Dude has been looking like it’s 2009 again.  Make sure nobody steals his Delorean.

- I can only imagine the silence in the Jays front office boxes as Brett Lawrie did this.

- Have a great day everybody, and remember…there are only 4 days left in this workweek.

Golden Sombrero: Cody Ross

Bottom 2: Cody Ross struck out swinging against Cliff Lee

Bottom 4: Ross struck out swinging against Lee

Bottom 7: Ross struck out swinging against Lee

Bottom 9: Ross called out on strikes against Lee

Final Line: 0-for-4, 4 K, 3 LOB

Notes: On Thursday night Ross fanned against CLee in all four at-bat and became the second player to notch a sombrero in that manner this season.  Even though he may be known around Philly as SORRYDOC, the 2010 NLCS MVP was hardly a threat against Lee.

Total 2011 Sombreros: 85