H/T to my colleagues from Prep Baseball Report Illinois for tweeting a link to this video earlier today. Connor Powers was the 2006 PBR Illinois Player of the Year and currently plays in the San Diego Padres organization.
It’s hard to believe that a guy like Yasmani Grandal could somehow become dispensable (not to mention Yonder Alonso), but that is exactly what happened when the Reds sent both guys to San Diego for Mat Latos. The primary reasons that deal makes sense for the Reds is No. 1: Joey Votto, and No: 2, Devin Mesoraco.
Mesoraco slashed .289/.371/.484 for Louisville and then was called up for 50 at-bats with Cincinnati. He went deep 15 times in Triple-A, walks at a decent clip, and projects for way more power than he currently displays. Perhaps even more important, though, is that Mesoraco possesses the tools to be an average catcher in the Show. He is an average receiver as well as thrower, and should be the Opening Day starter for the Reds in 2012 , hitting in the middle of the order by 2014 alongside Jay Bruce and Votto.
Grandal is built like a brick wall, so it’s tough for him to get his 220-pound frame moving. That is just about the only knock on him, though. Devin Mesoraco is one of the finest hitting prospects in the game, and he does an average job on the other side of the ball at a premium position.
It is hard to still think of Rizzo as a rookie after he was punished to the tune of a .523 OPS for the Padres in 128 at-bats in 2011. He still qualifies for this list, though, and while his stock did take a hit, he still is one of the top corner bat prospects in the game. As soon as he was demoted to Tucson, he began raking again, slashing .331/.404/.652 with 26 jacks in only 356 at-bats. He has true 60-grade power today with a chance at more.
His bat gets long to the ball, a tendency that lefties have had a fairly easy time exploiting, but he is athletic enough to develop his hit tool to a point that he should be able to stay inside of more pitches. Rizzo is an elite defender at first, but will never be an average runner. Who cares? With time, the 22-year-old could develop into one of the top first basemen in the National League and makes the loss of Adrian Gonzalez considerably more tolerable. He was the top offensive prospect in Boston’s organization before he became the centerpiece of the Gonzalez deal last winter. After the Mat Latos trade, the Padres are several pieces away from a legitimate chance at contention, and they have a very bright youngster with a chance to hit in the middle of the order for years in Anthony Rizzo.
Erlin was the prize of the Mike Adams deal, and he is perhaps the most unique pitcher of the Top-50. While many of the elite arms on this list have blazing hot fastballs and need to come up some in terms of commanding pitches and developing useable third pitches, Erlin already has plus secondary offerings and command. His breaking ball has terrific shape as does his changeup, and he locates both nearly as well as his fastball.
His fastball works in the 88-91 mph range, but can reach 93 mph when he lets one go. Erlin gets great plane on his pitches despite only being 6-foot, and has fluid, repeatable, and athletic mechanics that should keep him healthy. His 2.99 ERA across two leagues (including 16 starts in the Texas League) and 154 strikeouts in 147.1 innings reflect just how dominant Erlin can be despite not having prototypical ace stuff. He only walked 16 guys all season, and despite a bit of a propensity for flyballs, Erlin projects as a very solid No. 2 option in the Show.
In a yard like Petco, it is quite reasonable to expect Erlin to perform like a No. 1. We expect him to make at least 10-15 starts in Triple-A before being called up, and he will have to continue to prove that his command is good enough to overcome a lack in pace, but we expect him to stick in the Padre rotation for years.
Joe Wieland was part of the deal that sent Mike Adams to Texas, and considering how valuable Adams was to the bullpen in both San Diego and Texas, Wieland is obviously viewed as a future Big League contributor. We at The Sombrero will go a step further. Wieland will be a top of the rotation arm for years. We are talking a solid two in the Show.
His stuff isn’t as imposing as other arms that will crack our top 50, but his command is outrageously good. He walked 21 guys over 150 innings in 2011 for Christ’s sake. The strikeout totals were nearly one per inning, and he did a solid job keeping the ball in the yard as well.
Wieland should start the year in San Antonio, but he should move quickly to Triple-A. There is a very real chance he cracks the rotation in San Diego by the end of 2012. His fastball reaches 93, and his breaking ball is of the 12-6 variety with quality shape. Both pitches are solid average to above on their own, but Wieland’s command plays each pitch into the 55-60 range. His changeup is not used as often, but it has decent fade and should be a solid 50 pitch. Wieland has an athletic 6-foot-3 frame and very clean and easy mechanics that should allow him to stay reasonably healthy. This is not an ace arm, but it is the kind of No. 2 that every team wants.
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