Prospect Watch: Pirates RHP Stetson Allie has big league arm

On August 16^th, Pittsburgh Pirates GM Neil Huntington announced that they had agreed to terms with their 2^nd round draft pick(52^nd overall) of 2010, RHP Stetson Allie.  However, due to the hype surrounding their 1^st round pick Jameson Taillon, Allie has not received the appropriate exposure for a prep whose fastball can reach triple digits.  Ranked by Baseball America as the 8^th best prospect headed into the 2010 First Year Player Draft, Allie possesses the size and strength that makes scouts drool.  At 6’4,” 225 lbs, he already has the build of a power pitcher- now it’s just a matter of whether he will best serve the Pirates organization as a starter or reliever.

As a senior at St. Edward High School in Lakewood, OH, Allie posted video game like numbers, going 9-1 with 1.29 ERA and 134 strikeouts in just 60 innings.  Even more impressive was the fact that he lead his team to a Division I State Championship on June 6^th, and was the game’s winning pitcher with a line of 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 5 BB and 13 strikeouts.  On that day Allie put on a show for those in attendance, lighting up the stadium’s radar gun with a fastball that averaged 93-96 mph and touched as high as 101.  For the skeptics out there who might not believe that a prep pitcher hit triple digits, here is a video of Allie’s outing from the championship game:

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The scouting report on Allie is as exactly as the stat line from that game indicates; he possesses ridiculous stuff but at times encounters issues with his control.  In addition to the previously mentioned, blistering four-seam fastball that sits in the mid to upper 90s, Allie also throws a two-seam heater that generates some late movement.  As for his off-speed pitches, Allie features an above average slider that sits between 87-91 mph, as well as a changeup with late, downward movement that typically registers in the 85-87 mph range.  In high school Allie primarily used the electric fastball/power slider combination to neutralize opposing hitters, but as he now enters the minors he will soon understand the significance of the changeup.

So how did an 18 year-old with a triple digit arm slip all the way down to the 52^nd pick?  The best explanation is that the plate has a tendency to move around on Allie, especially as he works deeper into games.  For many scouts this is highly concerning, especially when bundled with the fact that he will be bypassing the collegiate level.  The jump from high school to professional baseball will be a test for Allie, as Major League hitters are far more disciplined and unimpressed with a hot fastball.  He will quickly realize that he can no longer get by as a guy who throws exceptionally hard- any big leaguer can turn around a fastball, regardless of velocity.  Instead, Allie’s success will depend on his ability to evolve into a pitcher that utilizes a full arsenal of above average pitches.  If he can consistently locate each of his pitches, Allie may pan out as a decent starter.  However, due to his size and arm strength, he seems destined for a career as a late-inning reliever, if not a closer.