Sombrero Staff Prognostications: Dee’s 2011 Predictions
March 31, 2011
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Posted by Daniel "Dee" Clark
AL East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. Tampa Bay Rays (Wildcard)
3. New York Yankees
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians
AL West
1. Texas Rangers
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners
ALDS 1: Red Sox over Twins (4 games)
ALDS 2: Rays over Rangers (5 games)
ALCS: Red Sox over Rays (6 games)
MVP: Dustin Pedroia
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves (wildcard)
3. Florida Marlins
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets
NL Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Houston Astros
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres
NLDS 1: Phillies over Brewers (5 games)
NLDS 2: Dodgers over Braves (5 games)
NLCS: Phillies over Dodgers (5 games)
MVP: Shane Victorino
World Series: Red Sox over Phillies (7 games)
MVP: Jon Lester
NL Rookie of the Year
Hitter: Brandon Belt
Pitcher: Mike Minor
AL Rookie of the Year
Hitter: J.P. Arencibia
Pitcher: Jeremy Hellickson
NL Reliever of the Year: Heath Bell
AL Reliever of the Year: Matt Thornton
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL MVP: Evan Longoria
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum
AL Cy Young: Jon Lester
NL Batting Title: Joey Votto
AL Batting Title: Robinson Cano
NL HR Leader: Albert Pujols
AL HR Leader: Alex Rodriguez
NL Strikeout Leader: Clayton Kershaw
AL Strikeout Leader: Jon Lester
Can someone please help me see why people believe the Tigers will be any good? As far as I’m concerned they have 1 proven reliable starter and the name of the game in baseball is pitching, pitching, pitching. They also have an aging lineup, and while picking up V-Mart was nice, I believe that move was necessary just to keep the teams runs scored in the same ballpark as last year. Cabrera is one of the best hitters in baseball but he can’t be expected to repeat last seasons performance. I also do not believe in Rick Porcello. I believe he was rushed so that he has not developed a reliable second pitch and is a hug injury risk. Obviously its baseball and they might end up winning 90+ games, but if I’m a betting man I set the Over/Under for them at 83 and struggle to pick a side.
PS my gf loves the Orioles and thinks they deserve some consideration for 4th place in that division. The off-season additions of Lee, Reynolds, Hardy, and Guerrero to a core of Markakis, Jones, Scott, Wieters, and Roberts makes their lineup one of the most formidable in the league. I know the pitching is a few years behind, but how good are the arms in Tornto now that Marcum is gone anyways? Also after they hired Buck as a manager they finished the year 34-23 (.596) so they showed some signs of life.
i think the orioles and jays will be close. both offenses have a lot of upside, and both staffs suck. i think their is more room in toronto for optimism on the mound because their starters are young and were generally regarded as excellent prospects. once their pen is healthy it will be pretty damn good too. as far as the tigers go, my thoughts are pretty simple. i don’t like what i’m hearing about liriano and slowey getting traded, and i am not sold on a morneau recovery yet. i don’t think they can win that division without him. i like the tigers a lot this year because a lineup with v-mart and a full season of raburn is dramatically improved over the one they had last year. v-mart had consecutive outstanding skills-supported seasons at the plate in 2009 and 2010. raburn should approach 25 bombs with 600 PA’s, and miggy c has no established ceiling yet. he’s still young enough to either build on last year or maintain it, and nothing about his sub-surface numbers suggests he can’t. i think scherzer is ready to take a huge step forward based largely on his post-break numbers in 2010. porcello had a great second half too last year and would probably have been regarded as the best prep arm in each of the last few draft classes. his ceiling is pretty damn high, and i think he can make a large jump this year. the white sox are a good team too, though, and i think those three teams will beat each other up all seaosn. 83 wins might do it.
wait… you predict that Alex will win the HR title and Robbie the batting title, but the Yankees won’t contend?
I know what you’re going to say. The Yankees have rotation issues. Sure, but so do the Red Sox, who you list as number one. The Yankees have as good a Cy Young candidate as Lester in CC (though I believe Lester may win this year). After that, Hughes is probably a bit better than Buchholz, Beckett is probably a bit better than AJ, and Lackey is probably better than Nova (on paper). Daisuke is Daisuke. Garcia and Matsuzaka are comparable pitchers with different name brands (same shit, different smell). Keep in mind that Cashman will probably trade for pitching at the deadline, and it sure’s hell will be better than Garcia or Bartolo.
As for the Rays, their rotation is pretty solid – especially 1-3 – but the offense is below average, and that bullpen isn’t scaring anyone. If the Yankees offense is as good as you say, then look at it this way: The Yankees basically lost Pettitte this offseason. That’s it. He was worth about 3 wins to the team. That puts the Yanks at 92 wins. The Rays would need some serious, Pujolsian firepower at the deadline to pull that off.
Jerome (Short for ‘Jeter’) is correct. If Robbie wins the batting title and Arod hits that many bombs then the Yanks will make the playoffs. In that scenario, you would most likely have 3 MVP candidates because obviously Tex is going to rake. Tampa is not making the playoffs, unless we are talking AAA ball or a few years from now. Tampa may not win a game in April now that Longo is Gone-go. I took a peak at the vaunted Damon-Manny 1-2 punch and found out that it’s not 2004 anymore so that combination is whack.
and as always, Sox suck. wake me up when Crawford earns half of his salary. You can put anyone in left field in Fenway and survive so his D gets wasted out there. Don’t believe me? check out this magnificent display of glovework:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=13103953
btw, CC is dealing right now!