Another week and another healthy helping of goodness, baseball is well under way with what can finally be considered a “worth-while” sample size.  By now, you have had enough time to watch baseball games, dissect saber-stats, and formulate a nice feel for your team and league.  It is the primetime to find an unsatisfied owner and score some fine product; the perfect opportunity to pry away some prime real estate at Target prices.

Unfortunately for this week, I have no new trades to report in the Denslow Cup.  I have been in negotiations on a couple deals involving some weight…Jose Bautista, Chipper Jones, Joey Votto, Yovani Gallardo, and C.C. Sabathia.  Not that these are all guys I will be talking about in this article, but I just love negotiating with other owners to find out how their opinions have changed on different guys and see if I can bring back a guy, or two, for under market value.

Speaking of negotiating, I can speak enough on how important it is to love the hunt as much as the kill.  In order to pull off successful trades, it requires many discussions and proposals with different owners in your league.  If your mind has  changed on guys you drafted, be sure that the same has happened all across the league.  Knowing how certain players on the fringe of bust or bounce-back years are being reevaluated is key to hitting pay dirt.  The following is a list of great Trade Bait.

(more…)

After reading Dee’s write-up of his draft picks, I would like to add my own review of the Denslow Cup 2011 draft.  Before we get into my picks and reasoning, let me tell you this: the league is filled with nerds, and playing in an OBP league drastically changes the way our draft goes as compared to other 5×5 leagues.  The draft was highly competitive, and was fantastic.  As Dee mentioned in his article, he and I gathered with a couple friends of the league, shared some suds and BBQ, and had our spring Christmas.  Just as with Christmas, entering draft day you never know what you are going to get.  By the end of it, you got a ton of stuff (or guys) and now it is time to see how it all works out.  I am incredibly optimistic about this year’s squad, So Fresh ‘n So Sheen Sheen, and where we can finish.  Last year was a debacle, with me finishing 13^th out of 16 teams.  This year we shaved 4 teams, and the rosters are representative of that.  So, without further ado, I present to you a team flowing with tiger’s blood and bi-winning, and that is about to right all the wrongs of 2010: So Fresh ‘n So Sheen Sheen.

(more…)

• ESPN’s Buster Olney finally confirmed last night’s rumor that Zack Greinke had been traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, a story that was first reported by Jim Breen of Bernie’s Crew.  The Kansas City Royals will send Greinke and another major league player – suspected to be Yuniesky Betancourt – to the Brewers, and the Royals will receive shortstop Alcides Escobar, outfielder Lorenzo Cain, flame-throwing right hander Jeremy Jeffress, and 2008 first-round draft pick, Jake Odorizzi.

• With the acquisition of Greinke, the Brewers have made it clear that the 2011 season will be do or die, especially with Prince Fielder’s looming free agency prior to 2012.  If they aren’t having the season that they expected by the All-Star break, it wouldn’t surprise me to see both Fielder and Greinke be dealt, respectively.  The 2009 A.L. Cy Young winner is set to join a Brewers’ rotation that includes Yovani Gallardo, Chris Narveson, and the recently acquired Shaun Marcum.

(more…)

May 22, 2010

Jim got engaged!  To a terrific young lady I might add.  Congratulations, buddy!  We’re really proud and excited for you.  Two more engagement shout-outs: first one for our buddy, Kevin (Kev Kong) Wilcox; second one for my dental school classmate/friend and cadaver dissecting partner, Val Sanchez.  Very fun things.

Before I get going with this post, I want to apologize for not posting anything lately.  My finals week lasted about 15 days/nights and was a truly painful experience for everyone involved.  I still am awaiting confirmation that I passed my last two exams, but I did not need to do that well on them to make it to 2^nd year.  I don’t think when I began dental school or even when I was applying that I had any idea what it would actually be like.  Grinnell is a challenging undergraduate institution that consistently ranks among the most extensive in the country in terms of workload.  It did not remotely compare to what was expected of each student at Baylor.  They say the first year of professional school is the most challenging of any student’s career.  I really hope that is the case.

Moving on.  I have tried not to write much about fantasy on this blog because I am fearful of disclosing information that has helped me succeed in previous to my competitors.  The blog comes first now, though, so hopefully none of what I disclose is seen as particularly novel.

This post will center on some recent trades I have completed in my 16-team 7 x 7 (AVG, OBP, SLUG, HR, SB, R, RBI x IP, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB) league that I play in with my friends, many of whom write for the Sombrero.  Before I begin I should mention that I tend to give the team I drafted a month or so of a chance for two primary reasons.  First, it takes approximately 100 plate appearances or so to produce a meaningful set of results capable of evaluation.  Second, this evaluation should help determine a reevaluation of the predraft rankings implicit within are new projections and expectations.  This reevaluation should generate some inefficiencies and potential bargain deals throughout any league.  Hopefully a month into the season every one of your players are playing over-their-heads and producing at unsustainably high levels.  This will inflate their values to the point that they are capable of fetching players ranked considerably higher in the predraft rankings.  A month into the season the rankings that should be taken the most seriously remain those produced prior to the draft because they are based in the most extensive and reliable numbers.  Some players are streaky, and some streak/slump oscillations express periods of a month or longer.  For these reasons, I target May as the month in which I need to work the hardest in fantasy.  This unfortunately coincides with finals and has been hindered more than usual this year.  Nevertheless I have made a few moves that I think will really help my squad, the Heights Knights (named after my 8^th grade basketball team), find their stride and hopefully begin to climb in the standings.

CLAR traded Kevin Youkilis, Bos 3B to A-holes
CLAR traded Nate McLouth, Atl OF to A-holes
CLAR traded Kevin Slowey, Min SP to A-holes
MVW traded David Wright, NYM 3B to Knights
MVW dropped David DeJesus, KC OF to Free Agency
MVW dropped Nick Hundley, SD C to Free Agency

This trade took place in early May and heavily reflects my love for David Wright and very little else.  Simply put, I lost this trade.  Youkilis plays for a better team in a better yard, makes contact more often and has better control of the strike zone, probably more power, is more consistent, and, most importantly, will be an easier guy to move later on.  This final reason is a product of the fact that as the season progresses, Wright’s strikeout totals will likely seem more astronomic by the day.  The Mets are a pathetic organization.  I blame their management and front office entirely for David’s recent and ongoing struggles with contact.  That’s a different subject for a different day, though.  Back to the trade.  Slowey’s command is second to none, and even though he lacks a put-away pitch or above average anything, his ability to locate makes him a serviceable two or exceptional three in any rotation.  In a league like ours that uses IP as a category, Slowey is a horse and will always outperform his 5×5 ranking.  McLouth has not looked like the all-star he was in 2008 because he is not making contact often enough.  He will continue to lose playing time as long as he fails to put the ball in play, but, when near his best, McLouth makes Melky Cabrera look like the minor league journeyman he should be.

Eunuch (MVW) beat me on this trade, but I have David, my favorite player, and I am much happier moving forward now as a result.

TOWL traded Nick Markakis, Bal OF to Knights
CLAR traded Yovani Gallardo, Mil SP to Corporate Towls

This trade was mostly a reflection of our cap on starts.  Essentially three starters should be able to reach the cap (100), and I had five at the time.  Gallardo was my highest ranked according to ESPN, but in our league should have been dropped extensively due to his notoriously high pitch counts and less-than-ace-caliber walk totals.  In standard formats, these are virtually meaningless, but in our league make Yo a 4-category contributor in a 14-category format.

Markakis has been one of my targets since 2006.  His ability to both differentiate balls and strikes as well as center the baseball make him lethal in formats such as ours that utilize both average and OBP categories despite having just 15 to 20-bomb power.  Because OBP is not included in the standard format, Markakis is far more valuable in the Cup than he is according to ESPN.

Budz dropped Kris Medlen, Atl RP to Free Agency
Budz dropped J.J. Putz, CWS RP to Free Agency
Budz traded Billy Butler, KC 1B to Knights
CLAR traded Todd Helton, Col 1B to ChronicL’s
CLAR traded Josh Willingham, Was OF to ChronicL’s
CLAR traded Matt Lindstrom, Hou RP to ChronicL’s

Ty9 traded Carlos Lee, Hou OF to Knights
CLAR traded Billy Butler, KC 1B to POO

These trades happened within hours of each other, so I will treat them as one mega deal in which I move Helton, Willingham, and Lindstrom for Carlos Lee.  A trade like this is only possible if you really know the other managers in the league.  My first trading partner in this deal was Griff.  Griff is after a first-place finish this year, and I know it.  He has produced increasingly higher finishes each year and made it into the top-5 last season for the first time.  In a 16-team league, saves are a big deal.  Not only are there only 30 closers at any time but also a 0 in any category means a lot more when one team is getting 16 and the average team is snagging 8 or 9 from that category.  I find it very hard to envision a first place team getting last or even close to last in the saves category.  A single stable closer (30 saves) for the entire season is probably enough to avoid a catastrophically low saves total, and closers are hoarded in our league as a result.  The effects of this hoarding are an enhanced demand and a reduced supply of saves.  Griff recognized that the longer he waited, the less the return and the higher the cost.  By a stroke of luck, Alfredo Simon, the new Orioles closer was available as well as Manny Corpas making Lindstrom somewhat expendable.

Willingham is another guy who is worth more in our league than in a standard league because of his skill at reaching base, but what some folks have been slow to accept is the quality of the heart of the Nationals order.  Hitting behind Adam Dunn should provide Hammer with a shot at 100 RBI’s.  He has a chance this season to be an all-star and is especially valuable in a platoon.

Todd Helton again is more valuable in our league due to his combination of average and on-base skills.  Jason Giambi is a ridiculous distraction and almost comical nowadays, but he should be eliminated shortly I suspect due to the imminent season-ending injury that surely accompanies 39-year old, fat, steroid abusers.  Griff actually got Helton at a time when his value may be somewhat deflated due to his slow start, and in general this trade is looking as though I came away the loser.

However, I knew if I could just snag Butler that Ty9, a lifelong and diehard Royals fan, would probably give me Carlos Lee in exchange.  Lee has been getting a lot of bad publicity recently because of his slow start, but the guy can take every square inch of the zone 450 ft.  I saw his slow start as an obvious opportunity to buy low on a guy that has a 3-year mean OPS over .880 and a 5-year average of 31 dongs/season.

Everyone other Tyrone won this one.

Bob dropped Mike Adams, SD RP to Free Agency
CLAR traded David Ortiz, Bos DH to of Shelley
CLAR traded Chris Coghlan, Fla OF to of Shelley
Bob traded Carlos Pena, TB 1B to Knights

As noted earlier, I have a tendency to fall in love with certain players.  Carlos is one of those guys for me.  I have never had him on my team.  He is clearly underperforming right now, but has shown the ability to stay inside and above the ball with good lower body action in the last week or so against good arms.  The ball Gardner took away was an excellent swing, and the next night Carlos went deep twice.  I love him and rolled out the red carpet this morning for him.

I’m a Coghlan believer.  I think his mechanics at the plate allow him to handle almost all pitches even though they probably are good for no more than fifteen jacks/season.  As everyone has always known about Coghlan, his skills play better at 2B than at a COF spot.  Not going to happen with Uggla on 40-jack pace.  Still, Coghlan should be around a .300 hitter the rest of the way while walking at a respectable clip.

Papi is so tough to evaluate right now.  Sometimes he looks as good as ever, and sometimes he looks like he could go 0-for a beer league game.  This suggests that Papi is guessing and cheating his hands at the plate to compensate for either reduced pitch deciphering abilities, reduced bat speed, injury, or a combination of the three.  I suspect that I may have moved him at the perfect time, and while I have normally been a fan of Papi, the failed PED test was a big turnoff for me.  Considering I plucked him off of waivers a week before this deal, it was easy to pull the trigger.

I am very satisfied with these trades and the way my team is looking.  This has been one of my more successful Mays, and, with the addition of luck, health, and a few more quality moves, it should put me in position to challenge for my first title.

The current Knights:

Yesterday Milwaukee inked 24-year old Yovanni Gallardo to a five-year deal worth a minimum of $30.1 million and potentially as much as $42.5 million.  The deal could keep Gallardo a Brewer through 2015 if the club so chooses.  The deal is really quite novel in that it provides both the Brewers and Gallardo a number of incentives, such as parameters regarding which teams Gallardo could potentially be traded to as well as bonuses based on Cy Young voting.  While Cy Young voting is a rather subjective way of distributing payment, the clause at least provides the Brewers some level of merit-based control on their checkbook.  Compared to the contracts awarded to a few of Gallardo’s peers such as Justin Verlander, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, and Matt Cain, Jon Lester, and Zack Greinke this deal comes off looking rather genius for the Brewers.  The question, though, lies in whether or not Gallardo can justify being considered a peer of these elite young righties.

Last year Gallardo cracked the 200-strikeout milestone for the first time in his career while making 30 starts for the first time as well.  Considering that he was coming off a season shortened by knee surgery in 2008, 2009 was a significant step in the right direction.  He still failed to reach the 200-IP plateau, but in many ways I consider that a good thing for the Brewers considering they were fully aware that they would ultimately miss the playoffs relatively early in the season.  Why not manage their young ace conservatively if he is basically just practicing for next year?

How about his stuff?  The wrap on Gallardo since he was a flame-throwing yet erratic high schooler has been that he lacks a developed third pitch.  I’m not sure that remains the case.  He still tends to favor his fastball (95+ whenever he needs it)/curve (at least plus, sometimes plus-plus) duo, but his changeup has made considerable strides since Gallardo reached the Bigs in 2007.  Still, he does not use it enough.  Gallardo’s high ¾ release point and carry on his fastball, when coupled with Miller’s short porch, tend to drive a lot of balls to the seats, but that same carry allows Gallardo to pitch at the letters a little more often, especially to righties, in order to generate strike 3.

Delivery?  It sounds like Milwaukee extensively analyzed Gallardo’s delivery to determine if anything about it would lead to career-threatening injuries later on.  From the sounds of it, Gallardo checked out nicely.  Personally, I think he fights to create a downward plane more than someone with his build and athleticism should, – primarily by using his front side to “climb” – but that same athleticism probably allows him the necessary leeway he needs to do it.

So why am I not convinced?  Gallardo is not efficient.  His K/BB is the worst of the pitchers I mentioned earlier as potential peers, he has thrown the fewest innings, and he has had a major surgery already.  Still, with the way his contract is structured, the Brewers have provided themselves with a situation that will provide Gallardo incentive for finding ways to solve these problems.  I think he has the stuff, athleticism and organizational support to really make a run at a few Cy Young Awards, and that would help both Yovanni and the Brewers.