Another week and another healthy helping of goodness, baseball is well under way with what can finally be considered a “worth-while” sample size. By now, you have had enough time to watch baseball games, dissect saber-stats, and formulate a nice feel for your team and league. It is the primetime to find an unsatisfied owner and score some fine product; the perfect opportunity to pry away some prime real estate at Target prices.
Unfortunately for this week, I have no new trades to report in the Denslow Cup. I have been in negotiations on a couple deals involving some weight…Jose Bautista, Chipper Jones, Joey Votto, Yovani Gallardo, and C.C. Sabathia. Not that these are all guys I will be talking about in this article, but I just love negotiating with other owners to find out how their opinions have changed on different guys and see if I can bring back a guy, or two, for under market value.
Speaking of negotiating, I can speak enough on how important it is to love the hunt as much as the kill. In order to pull off successful trades, it requires many discussions and proposals with different owners in your league. If your mind has changed on guys you drafted, be sure that the same has happened all across the league. Knowing how certain players on the fringe of bust or bounce-back years are being reevaluated is key to hitting pay dirt. The following is a list of great Trade Bait.
Guys I’m Getting:
This guy is walking fewer batters per 9 innings than ever before. Control=locked in on the bump. Thanks to some pinpoint accuracy he is also inducing more ground balls than normal. While this has induced a BABIP that is lower than league average, it is not far off and any regression will not be significant enough to scare me. Convince his owner that his K/9 rate is way down and he looks like a changed pitcher. He has a .365 FIP and you will be happy to have him.
It is nice to have the shield of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee to keep the limelight out of your eyes and let you get to pitching. Quietly, he has a K/BB ratio that is just slightly below his career best. Not to mention his BABIP is right at league average with a WHIP that is second lowest of his career. Can you connect the dots? I can. Go get him before someone realizes what is happening behind the shields.
His BABIP is at an astonishingly low .176. Even if you don’t like to buy into “luck,” this has nowhere to go but up. Uggla is even striking out less than ever. Remind his owner that his OBP is strikingly low, and hope he doesn’t notice that his contact rate is at peak performance. Hitting more baseballs than ever means some are bound to begin dropping. Get that soured 4th rounder for the deal of the week.
Guys I’m Getting Rid Of:
His average is 90 points higher than ZiPS projected it to be. I don’t think he is Jose Bautista. Add to it that he is swinging at pitches outside the zone higher than average by a tune of 8%. Call me a seller. I’m looking to bring in someone like Chipper Jones if I own Placido Polanco.
Werth is actually walking less than he typically does. His line drive rate is 10% that of what his career average is. Sounds like somebody is pressing to prove his Werth. I apologize for the awful pun, but sometimes a guy just can’t help himself. Call me a seller.
B. J. Upton:
Seriously. How many years will it take before you realize what he is? A one and a half category helper.