Baseball here in the nation’s capital has been rather difficult to watch at times.  Since I arrived in the District of Columbia on June 5, 2008, the woebegone Nationals have compiled a record of 93-169, good for an anemic .355 winning percentage.  To put that in perspective, No team has posted a poorer mark in a single season since the Royals lost 106 games in 2005.  But with a couple of established veterans anchoring the lineup, some intelligent personnel moves from GM Mike Rizzo and an increasing amount of young talent down on the farm, there may be a glimmer of hope for this franchise, which has languished in baseball’s second division since it moved to the District in 2005.
Offense
In 2009, the Nationals were the tenth-best offense in the National League, posting a respectable 4.4 runs per game.  For 2010, the Opening Day lineup will look something like this:

Nyjer Morgan replaces the since-released Elijah Dukes in the outfield to begin 2010.  Morgan, a midseason acquisition in 2009, was a very pleasant surprise in the second half of the season and looks to continue his hot hitting and base-stealing in 2010.  Rookie Ian Desmond, who beat out eight-million-dollar utility man Christian Guzman for the starting shortstop job, looks to provide youth, energy and the ability to actually take a pitch or two here and there to the second spot in the lineup.  If those two can generate some production at the top of the order, they can certainly make things exciting on the basepaths.
However, with a core of Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham hitting behind them (95 home runs among the three last year), they may not have to.  Zimmerman, who racked up a thirty-game hitting streak on his way to an all-star game nomination in 2009, is just entering his prime and could easily have his best season yet at the hot corner.  Dunn moves over to first base full-time after resembling a statue in the outfield last year, and Willingham, who did not have a starting job locked down at this time in 2009, looks to make a significant contribution to the team early given more at-bats in an everyday role.  While this tandem may not be counted among the best in the game, they can score runs and score them in a hurry.
At second base, Adam Kennedy takes over for 2009 opening day starter Anderson Hernandez. While this is certainly an upgrade, it may be asking too much of Kennedy to repeat his 20-steal, 11-home run season of a year ago.  Some regression to the mean is in order here, but Kennedy is certainly an improvement over Nationals second basemen of the past.  Ivan Rodriguez will be the everyday catcher until Jesus Flores is healthy again—Rodriguez’s best days at the plate are well behind him, but his ability to work with a very young pitching staff and provide solid defense behind the plate will be a welcome addition to the franchise.  Rounding out the order will be a rather-unimpressive tandem of Willie Harris and Willy Taveras, who looks to return to the form he showed for the Rockies in 2007, when he helped lead the franchise to its first-ever National League championship.  If young prospect Justin Maxwell can impress early in Triple-A Syracuse, look for him to get a chance to prove himself in right—the Nationals hope that he can be their future at the position.
Overall, the Nationals lineup does not look like that of the worst team in baseball.  Expect them to improve on their mediocre 2009 run production and score enough runs to keep themselves in more games than in recent memory.
Pitching
There is plenty of room for concern in the starting rotation.  While there’s no question that young Stephen Strasburg is one of the five best Nationals starters right now, the team decided to have him begin the season in Double-A to further his development.  Chien-Ming Wang and phenom Jordan Zimmermann wait in the wings as well, but up with the big club will be Opening Day starter John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Craig Stammen, Livan Hernandez and Garrett Mock.
Lannan, who takes the ball on Opening Day for the second consecutive season, is a workmanlike performer, who managed an ERA under 4 in 2009 but struck out just 89 hitters in over 200 innings.  While Lannan is capable of keeping the walks to a minimum, his heavily defense-reliant style was a bad combination with the Nationals’ porous defense, which committed a league-worst 143 errors.
Marquis, fresh off a 15-win season and an All-Star game nomination with the Rockies a year ago, has garnered high expectations coming into camp this season, but has struggled mightily in camp.  Couple this with a rough second half of 2009 (just one win after August 19) and there is plenty of room for questions here.  Last year, Marquis became the first player in MLB history to reach the playoffs in ten consecutive seasons (his entire career) while playing for at least three teams over that span.  Expect that streak to end this season, and expect Marquis’s win total to fall significantly short of the fifteen he posted in the Mile High City.
Stammen’s strong spring led to his being handed the #3 spot in the rotation, but his 5.11 ERA and a K/9 rate of less than four means an adventure every time he gets the ball.  Hernandez, an aging workhorse who came to camp as a non-roster invitee, has put up the best numbers of his career as a National, but would be the first likely candidate to be released following a promotion of either Strasburg or Wang.  Mock was regarded as a rather strange choice as fifth starter, considering that lefty Scott Olsen had the better spring overall and improved throughout, but Mock and his 3-10 record and 5.72 ERA from 2009 will be taking the ball every fifth day—for now at least.
The Nationals, however, have even bigger concerns in the bullpen.  Veteran Matt Capps anchors the crew after coming over from Pittsburgh.  He looks to improve on a disastrous 2009 after counting himself among the league’s middle-of-the-pack closers in 2007 and 2008.  The Nats will need him to shut the door considerably more often than he did last year if they want any sort of respectability.  Capps will be joined by Sean Burnett, Tyler Clippard, one-time closer Mike MacDougal and new arrival Brian Bruney, who figures to be the primary set-up man.  Questions abound regarding this ramshackle collection of hurlers, and top prospect Drew Storen figures to step in sooner or later.  Until that time, however, the Nationals could find themselves giving away far more late leads than they would like.  Expect this developing group to struggle in 2010.
Overall
While hope springs eternal for the Nationals in the form of Zimmermann, Strasburg and Storen, and the 3-4-5 tandem of Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham can be counted on for a good chunk of RBIs this season, 2010 won’t be the Nationals’ year.  There are simply too many questions—namely at the back end of the rotation, in right field and in middle relief, not to mention a full slate of games against the defending NL Champion Phillies and the wild-card favorite Braves.  Expect some improvement from 2010, but also expect Bob Marley’s “Three Little Birds” (played at the ballpark after every Nationals loss) to fill the air this summer on South Capitol Street.
This fan’s prediction: a 68-94 record and another last-place finish in the NL East.  However, things are looking up for this franchise with its developing stars and its no-longer-barren farm system.  The Nationals won’t be playing in October, but sooner rather than later, Bob Marley’s presence at Nationals Park will diminish and Nationals fans may be able to finally say that everything’s going to be all right here in DC.
Until that time, however, this fan will continue to enjoy having a major league baseball team just a five-dollar ticket and a ten-minute Metro ride away.  Because no matter who you are, no matter whom you root for and no matter where you live, last-place baseball is infinitely better than none at all.

NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Padres
NL Central: Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Astros, Pirates
NL East: Phillies, Marlins, Braves, Mets, Nationals
NL Wild Card: Marlins
NL Pennant: Phillies over Dodgers
NLCS MVP: Chase Utley

AL West: Rangers, Mariners, Angels, Athletics
AL Central: Twins, Tigers, White Sox, Indians, Royals
AL East: Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays
AL Wild Card: Rays
AL Pennant: Rays over Yankees
ALCS MVP: James Shields

World Series: Rays in 7…on the road.  Carl Crawford is the MVP.

AL ROY: Wade Davis
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez

NL ROY: Jason Heyward
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL MVP: Albert Pujols

Many coaches teach that the best way to approach hitting is to work the count against a pitcher.  After all, the more pitches a pitcher must throw, the better chance a hitter has to time his delivery, get a sense for his stronger and weaker pitches and learn what he might throw in certain situations.  This not only helps the hitter, these coaches argue, but also the team.  If a pitcher consistently has to throw four or more pitches to every hitter, he will be out of the game relatively quickly, even if he is pitching effectively.

As a hitter, I always looked at it differently.  I felt that the first pitch I saw during an at-bat was often the best one.  I also believed that as I got deep into the count, the pitcher would be able to dictate the at-bat more and force me to swing at pitchers’ pitches.  Further, true in all levels of baseball but especially in high school, pitchers are taught above all to get ahead of the hitter. This usually means that on the first pitch, pitchers will try to throw a strike, typically a fastball.  Very rarely will a pitcher start off by trying to get a hitter to chase an offspeed pitch out of the zone.  This only begins to happen when pitchers are already ahead of hitters—perhaps after the hitter has taken a quick strike or two.

Looking at the numbers, here are the batting averages by count in MLB:
0-0 = .344
1-0 = .341
2-0 = .351
3-0 = .394
0-1 = .324
1-1 = .327
2-1 = .338
3-1 = .368
0-2 = .166
1-2 = .178
2-2 = .195
3-2 = .233
Source: Baseball FactoryBlog: A Premier Scouting Partner for Baseball America http://baseballfactory.com/blog/labels/batting%20average.html

Looking at these numbers, one thing becomes clear—the only hitter’s counts better by a statistically significant amount than the first pitch are 3-0 and 3-1.  This makes sense—in these situations, pitchers are often forced to throw a fastball strike or risk a walk—a “free pass”.  Conversely, once a hitter gets two strikes on him, his batting average drops like a rock.  This also makes sense, because when a pitcher has worked an 0-2 or 1-2 count, he can afford to throw an offspeed pitch outside the strike zone in hopes that the hitter will chase.  The hitter also has to protect the plate, meaning that if the pitch is close, he has to swing.

Further, home runs occur most often in MLB on the first pitch—more often than in any other count.  0-0 counts also see the most doubles, triples and RBI.  While of course some of this can be explained by the fact that every hitter sees a 0-0 count in every at-bat, it also leads me to believe that hitters, when coming up to the plate looking to be aggressive, can jump on that first pitch well if the pitcher is just trying to get ahead in the count.

Finally, we can take a look at the OBP numbers for after the appropriate count.  This is calculated slightly differently because obviously, no one (not even Barry Bonds in 2001) can walk on anything other than a three-ball count, so the OBP for 1-0 represents the OBP for all hitters who begin their at-bat with ball one, regardless of how many more pitches they see:
1-0 .394
2-0 .516
3-0 .760
0-1 .281
1-1 .321
2-1 .404
3-1 .595
0-2 .211
1-2 .242
2-2 .306
3-2 .263
Here, we see a much sharper rise from 1-0 to 3-0.  However, more interesting is that we see a fall in OBP from 2-2 to 3-2.  We do see OBPs rise for non-two-strike counts.  Contrary to batting average, OBP is actually better on 2-1 than on 1-0.  Still, the biggest thing to notice is that the two-strike OBPs represent three of the lowest four on the chart.  Sure, great hitters like Luke Appling may have been able to foul pitches away (once even 24 in an at-bat!) until they found one they liked, but in reality, the advantage is to the pitcher in these situations.

In conclusion, I would draw the conclusion that if you have runners on in front of you and are trying to get a base hit to drive them in, taking pitches and getting deep in the count would be a horrible idea.  If you are trying to start an inning off, it’s still not a good idea to get too deep in the count because two-strike counts lead to the poorest OBPs, but taking pitches makes more sense in this situation.

I certainly don’t expect everyone to agree, not only because this is anathema to conventional wisdom on the game today, but because my baseball career was the shortest of all of this blog’s contributors.  But in one hitter’s opinion, the best way to hit with a two-strike count is to not get in one.

Sox/Yanks.  CC/Beckett.  On paper the matchup is just another game.  One of the 162 everyone signed up for.  Still, the first one means more.  I personally can’t wait, and my eyes will be glued to my TV from the first pitch until the last.  This Opening Day is a little different for me, though.

This is the first season in which I will be enjoying the game as nothing more than a fan and friend of the game and the people in it.  Prior to this season I was still somehow involved in the game, as either a player or a coach.  The thought of what the game means to me now – and what I should mean to it – are quite prominent in my self-reflection nowadays.  Truthfully, I don’t think I have ever cared as much about the game itself.  One thing about being personally removed from the competition inside the gates is that I have no personal ties to any particular team.  Sure, I still root heavily for all of my friends still playing at college as well as all the kids I coached in either high school or club ball, but my fix can no longer be satisfied by anything that I can actually do on the field.  I think that is the primary reason that Arlo and I started this blog.  He is in the same boat I am and has the same love and longing for the game that I do.

My guess is that like me, he sees the game as much more than just a game and much more than just a thing to do.  I still feel as though I have some kind of responsibility to the game, much the same way a player grabs an extra lift in August or takes a few extra cuts in the cage after an 0-for day.  Baseball is a part of my life, and I feel as though I owe it something.  Maybe that something is simply paying the ticket price to watch a high school game or playing in a fantasy league with old friends, or anything really.  The responsibility we all have is simply to care.  Deep down I feel as though the game in many ways brought me my opportunity in dental school, many of my closest friends, and greatly improved my relationship with my father, among countless other things.  It never asked for anything in return except that I care.  I’m endlessly fortunate to have the game.  We all are.

So let’s all tune in Sunday with hope for the season ahead.  Even if you can’t stand either team, realize that their roles in the game are unique.  These two organizations drive the baseball economy, and everyone benefits from them as a consequence.  Personally, I am rooting for the Sox all season because of the one-day contract they gave Nomar so that he could retire in the uniform he was meant to.  Nomar was my favorite player growing up, and as a fan, that gesture meant an awful lot to me.  Unfortunately, I have never and likely will never meet Nomar, but the game taught me to care about and believe in something bigger than any of us.  It’s nice when the people actually in it show us how much they appreciate our love and admiration for our heroes.  Thanks, baseball.

Regardless of which fantasy references you frequent, I’m sure that you have been beaten upside the head with theories as to how to draft relief pitching.  I have both read and experimented with advice that has ranged from the conservative, waiting until the 3rd round to draft the best available closer, to the experimental, “I won’t pay for relief pitching/saves.”  While I must admit that I don’t subscribe to either of these strategies in full, I have found the latter to be the most efficient, exciting and rewarding.  Daniel “Dee” Clark, a fellow blogger on the site, is about as strong of an advocate of this philosophy as any fantasy enthusiast I have read.  For three consecutive years he has excelled in our league due to his knowledge of the game, it’s players and their statistical relevance.  Each year he has compiled a lethal offense under the belief that there will always be an array of relief pitchers that, at the end of the year, will have been more valuable than the game’s top closers; in layman’s terms, relief pitching is far too unpredictable.  Every season, Major League Baseball is riddled with controversy surrounding the security of closers(see Brad Lidge circa 2008 & 2009).  The excessive scrutiny on “closers” really only yields one positive result, the emergence of fresh, young arms that have been anxiously awaiting their opportunity to shove it down hitters’ throats(see Andrew Bailey, Leo Nunez circa 2009).  With the 2010 season a mere week away, it’s important to note several talented, young guns who appear to be in line to produce huge years for their organizations and fantasy owners alike.

Mike Adams, Padres –
2009 Statistics: 37 IP, 0-0, .73 ERA, .59 WHIP, 5.63 K/B
Why haven’t you heard about Mike Adams? Well, it’s most likely because he has literally been under the knife since 2006.  However, he reappeared towards the end of last year and was nothing short of nasty.  Barring another injury, he should accumulate a respectable amount of wins as it seems he will be trusted to keep games close before giving way to Heath Bell.  Should Bell(or Pocket Broxton as I like to call him) get traded this season, I would expect Adams to get the promotion over teammate Luke Gregerson.

Neftali Feliz, Rangers –
2009 Statistics:  31 IP, 1-0, 1.74 ERA, .68 WHIP, 4.88 K/BB
I don’t want to spoil it for you, but if you haven’t seen Mr. Happy pitch yet, you must, because he is dominant.  Whether the Rangers eventually use him as a starter or reliever, he will put up similar numbers to last year.  A coveted prospect of the organization, he responded nicely to being thrust into pressure situations at only 21 years of age.  If Frank Francisco either gets hurt or charged with another felony assault, look for Feliz to step in as closer.

Matt Thornton, White Sox –
2009 Statistics: 72.1 IP, 6-3, 4 SV, 2.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 4.35 K/BB
Matt Thornton throws the most effortless 96-98MPH fastball I have ever seen.  The 6’5″ left hander has been one of the best set-up men in baseball over the past two seasons as indicated by his .198 BAVG in 2008 and .217 BAVG in 2009.  While it is important to note that he hasn’t exactly excelled in the closer role when given the opportunity(1 SV/6 SVO in 2008 and 4 SV/9 SVO in 2009), it definitely does not mean that he won’t be the front runner if Bobby Jenks gets hurt.

Daniel Bard, Red Sox –
2009 Statistics: 49.1 IP, 1-1, 1 SV, 3.65 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.86 K/BB
If anything were to happen to Jonathon Papelbon, I don’t think the Red Sox would miss a beat.  Young, flame thrower Daniel Bard is their closer of the future.  With a high 90’s heater and a devastating slide piece, Bard has as bright of a future as any young pitcher in baseball.  Any control problems that worried fantasy owners last season are sure to wane with more experience and confidence.

Sergio Romo, Giants –
2009 Statistics: 34 IP, 6-3, 5 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 3.73 K/BB
With so much focus on the Giants starting rotation, the excellent arms in their bullpen seem to be perennially overlooked.  After the All-Star break in 2009, Romo showed that he is the real deal and a fixture in the Giants bullpen.  He accumulated 6 wins and 5 saves in only 34 IP last season, which seems weak compared to his sheer dominance across the minor leagues.  Complimented by left hander Jeremy Affeldt, the Giants should have a great bridge to closer Brian Wilson this season.

Brandon League, Mariners –
2009 Statistics: 74.2 IP, 3-6, 4.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.62 K/BB
You might as well just ignore his stats from last year because League is not the same pitcher.  With a new pitch added to his already potent arsenal, this is going to be League’s breakout season.  Although I repeatedly predicted his breakout seasons to happen while on the Blue Jays, it’s never too late for a guy with such great stuff(see Mike Adams above).  26 year olds League and teammate Mark Lowe are sure to be a deadly duo within the Mariner’s bullpen and worthy of consideration in deep fantasy leagues.  If incumbent closer David Aardsma were to hit the DL or revert to his wild tendencies, League should have no problem filling in.

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees –
2009 Statistics: DOES NOT MATTER
We have all seen what this guy can do as a reliever.  He is as dynamic and dominant as any closer in baseball and should get a chance if Mo’s fountain of youth runs dry.  While, I’m sure that a Mo injury would only ignite another season long debate on Joba’s importance as a starter or reliever, the guy will do whatever is asked of him day in, day out.  Look for Joba to have a monster season out of the Yankee bullpen.

Joey Devine, Athletics –
2009 Statistics: DNP(Tommy John surgery)
Before the emergence of Andrew Bailey, Devine was the closer on paper headed into the 2009 season.  However, his ongoing elbow troubles forced him to have Tommy John surgery and surrender his whole season.  One year later, Devine is said to be healthy and ready for the season where he will be setting up games for AL Rookie of the Year Andrew Bailey.  Devine’s closer like repertoire makes him the leading candidate to close for the A’s should anything happen Andrew Bailey.  Although, from what I have seen, Bailey looks like a pretty durable young hoss