#44 Sonny Gray

Oakland Athletics

DOB: 11/7/1989

Previous Rank: N/A

ETA: 2013

Sonny Gray receives constant knocks for being undersized, having a high-effort delivery, and lacking an average or above third pitch. We at The Sombrero have never shied away from guys with sound yet high-energy deliveries. In fact, in some cases we prefer them. Gray is one of those cases.

He is extremely athletic and has never given anyone reason to fear injury beyond the fact that he is small-bodied and very explosive. His breaking ball was the best one in the 2011 draft class, even at only 5-foot-11. His fastball can reach 97 mph, and he sits at 93-95 mph most starts. His fastball, like most short righties, has phenomenal carry and explodes through the strike zone.

Gray reached Double-A by his second professional start and only allowed a single run in 20 innings. His peripherals were solid despite being low in quantity (18 strikeouts vs. 6 walks). Gray was one of the best pitchers in the history of Vanderbilt, and, while many scouts see a reliever or mid-rotation starter, we see two 60 pitches with a chance at a 50 third pitch, a fast mover, and ace potential. The only obstacles to overcome are public opinion and minor command issues. The Bay Area has been pretty accepting of small-bodied righties with explosive fastballs and hammer benders recently, so we think Gray will be able to solve at least one of these issues fairly easily.

#45 Matt Harvey

New York Mets

DOB: 3/27/1989

Previous Rank: N/A

ETA: 2013

Harvey was the top collegiate arm in the 2010 class, but his career at North Carolina was not a smooth ride like most figured it would be considering that his fastball can reach 98 mph and he carries mid-90s velocity deep into nearly every start.  His mechanics and deception, as well as fastball life, have greatly improved in the last two years.  He throws two breaking ball variations, one of which is more of a slider while the other is more of a hard downer curve.

Scouts are fairly split on which one has the better prognosis, but at the Sombrero we think that each has its place when considering what side of the plate his opponent is hitting from.  His changeup is behind and he doesn’t throw it often or consistently enough yet, but it has some arm side action to it as well.  It profiles as a 50 while both breaking ball variations can be 60s or 70s given the day.

Harvey has a terrific frame at 6-foot-4 and 210-pounds, and his numbers suggest that he could reach the Big Leagues as early as 2013.  Across two levels, including 12 Double-A starts, Harvey struck out 156 guys next to 47 walks in 135.2 innings.  He kept the ball in the yard quite well too and finished the year with a 3.32 ERA.  The future looks bright for Harvey, and maybe, just maybe, the Mets might not blow it with him.

#46 Michael Choice

Oakland Athletics

DOB: 11/10/1989

Previous Rank: N/A

ETA: 2013

Choice had a terrific first full season of professional baseball as a 21-year-old. He had an outstanding career at UT-Arlington and was deservedly selected with the tenth overall pick in 2010. With Stockton this year in the California League, Choice slashed .285/.376/.542 and went deep 30 times. He struck out 134 times but walked enough to justify it.

There is some swing-and-miss with Choice, but no part of any park can hold him, and his defense is far better than one would expect from this kind of power bat. There is a realistic chance that Choice can stay in CF, and if he can, then he will be an all-star year in and year out. While his speed is a 60, he doesn’t necessarily use it very well stealing bases. It is better reflected in the field and moving from base to base on contact.

The down tool with Choice is his arm, so his value drops considerably if he is forced to move away of center, but by no means is that move imminent or even likely. Michael Choice can take a huge step forward perhaps even into the top 10 with a big 2012 in the high Minors.

#47 Jarred Cosart

Houston Astros

DOB: 5/25/1990

Previous Rank: N/A

ETA: 2013

This report is written under the assumption that Cosart will start in the Majors instead of relieve, as some suggest he is better equipped to do.  Cosart, alongside stud hitter Jonathan Singleton, was dealt at the deadline for Hunter Pence by Philadelphia.  Cosart immediately became the top-pitching prospect in the Astros’ organization and features a 95-97 mph heater that can jump up to 99.

His secondary offerings are at least 50s in terms of stuff, but he does not command them well enough to use in high volume.  At this point, his changeup is a 55 and the curve is a 50 with good shape when he works in front of his body with it.  Cosart has a 6-foot-3 frame with room to add some bulk.  His mechanics range from clean to jerky, but he is athletic and has time to gain consistency with them.

As far as stats go, 2011 was up and down.  He absolutely dominated through the middle of June, got shelled for a month and a half or so, was traded, and finally was promoted to Double-A where he was bad.  On the year his numbers are pretty meaningless, but he was able to keep his ERA near 4.00, take the ball in 26 starts, and strikeout over 100 guys in nearly 145 innings.

I personally don’t see a lot of reason to give these stats too much consideration, though, since his season was so full of off-the-field distractions that he could not control nor impact.  Regardless, Cosart’s position in our top 50 is based on his arm, age, level, and likelihood of assuming a top-of-the-rotation spot within five years.

#48 Joseph Wieland

San Diego Padres

DOB: 1/21/90

Previously Ranked: N/A

ETA: 2012

Joe Wieland was part of the deal that sent Mike Adams to Texas, and considering how valuable Adams was to the bullpen in both San Diego and Texas, Wieland is obviously viewed as a future Big League contributor.  We at The Sombrero will go a step further.  Wieland will be a top of the rotation arm for years.  We are talking a solid two in the Show.

His stuff isn’t as imposing as other arms that will crack our top 50, but his command is outrageously good.  He walked 21 guys over 150 innings in 2011 for Christ’s sake.  The strikeout totals were nearly one per inning, and he did a solid job keeping the ball in the yard as well.

Wieland should start the year in San Antonio, but he should move quickly to Triple-A.  There is a very real chance he cracks the rotation in San Diego by the end of 2012.  His fastball reaches 93, and his breaking ball is of the 12-6 variety with quality shape.  Both pitches are solid average to above on their own, but Wieland’s command plays each pitch into the 55-60 range.  His changeup is not used as often, but it has decent fade and should be a solid 50 pitch.  Wieland has an athletic 6-foot-3 frame and very clean and easy mechanics that should allow him to stay reasonably healthy.  This is not an ace arm, but it is the kind of No. 2 that every team wants.