On Labor Day weekend, my dad and I woke up at 5AM and flew all the way to the other side of the country.  We battled hellacious Los Angeles traffic with tiny maps and bad directions.  We spent $34 on parking—for the first night.  And we drove six hours across the desert, dozens of miles from civilization but just one engine breakdown away from a grim fate at the hands of the 105-degree Arizona heat.

Some might wonder if we were out of our minds, all our months of frustration with the economy, global warming and LeBron’s Decision to take his talents to South Beach having finally driven us over the edge.  But no.  Our motivation for the four-day trip was much simpler—to watch four baseball games in four ballparks in four cities.  And while I can’t confirm or deny Pete Rose’s willingness to actually walk through hell in a gasoline suit to play baseball, I can certainly say that driving through hell in a Toyota Corolla merely to watch it was very well worth it indeed.  This is the first in a four-part series chronicling each ballpark we visited along the way.

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As the end of the 2010 Major League Baseball regular season edges a little closer every day, playoff races from around the league are gradually taking form.  The final months of the season have the potential to produce any number of dramatic, memorable outcomes, especially with some divisional races being three teams deep.  Although the teams with the greatest divisional leads- Texas Rangers and San Diego Padres- seem to be on the verge of pulling away, their respective magic numbers are still 42 and 46.

Oddly, those are not the magic numbers that I care about at this time.  The only number that matters to me is 45, because that is how many days must slowly pass before the Season 2 premiere of HBO’s Eastbound & Down on September 26^th, which just so happens to be my birthday, as well as a mere 24 hours after Dee’s birthday on the 25^th.

Whether you are an actual fan of baseball or not, the show is sheer genius and absolutely hilarious.  Out of all the conversations that I have had with others about the show, I can honestly say that I have never had someone openly assert their distaste. In fact, I have never even experienced an individual who seems to be on-the-fence, or “ehh” about it.

We are a society that loves, “The Man With The Golden Dick.”

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A few months ago, someone I barely knew asked me what I want to do before I die.  As common a question as that may be, it was one I’d never been asked before.  So naturally, as I often do in situations where I don’t know what to say, I blurted out the first answer that popped into my head.

“I want to visit all thirty major league ballparks.”

My questioner was impressed and satisfied with my answer, and as I thought more about it, I decided I was too.  After all, as any of my friends (or any of my family members, co-workers or ex-girlfriends) can tell you, I am a die-hard fan of not just the Colorado Rockies, but the game of baseball itself.  And reflecting on the question later that night, I couldn’t come up with a single good reason why I should not visit all thirty major league ballparks before my time here comes to an end.

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I just wanted to pass along the first article that I wrote for Bleacher Report called, “10 Relief Pitchers Who Will Immediately Help Your Fantasy Team.” I will continue to post any articles that I write for them and I hope that everybody enjoys them.

“10 Relief Pitchers Who Will Immediately Help Your Fantasy Team”

Saturday night, in the bottom of the 14th inning with the Padres up one run on the Rockies, manager Bud Black had a decision to make.  There were two outs and the tying run was on second.  Ian Stewart was at the plate and Chris Iannetta was on deck.  Black decided to walk Stewart, putting the winning run on base, and pitch to Iannetta (even though Iannetta had already gone deep in that game), who struck out to end the game.  He looked like a genius at the time, but things could’ve been much different had Iannetta ripped a two-RBI double down the right field line to win it.
This reminded me of Ernest Thayer’s famous 1888 poem, “Casey At the Bat”.  For those who don’t know it, it can be found here.  The story details a team down by two runs with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning.  Two weak hitters proceed to hit a single, then a double, which brings up the star hitter, “Casey,” with the tying run in scoring position and two out.
We all know how the story ends.  But what might a major league manager have done in this situation?  If he’s 2009 Manager of the Year Jim Tracy, he might have walked Casey.  And this seems to make sense.  First base was open and Casey represents the most feared hitter on the team, if not in the game.  In addition, Casey was likely a big, strong home run hitter built like Jason Giambi—it’s unlikely that he had even average speed, and so he may not even have been able to score on a double from the next hitter.  What’s not to like?

The first thing not to like is that an intentional walk increases the expected number of runs scored in any inning (Source: Baseball Prospectus at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=68778), regardless of how many are on base and how many are out.  Of course, this doesn’t mean it’s never a good idea—sometimes the hitter at the plate is significantly better than the one on deck, and sometimes the extra 1/3 of a run (or so) that the walk creates would be nearly meaningless to the outcome of the game.  In the top of the ninth, with the pitching team down a single run and with runners on second and third with two outs, an intentional walk does not hurt the pitching team in any significant way, because if that run were to eventually score, it would mean the difference between having to score three and four runs in the ninth inning—a scenario so unlikely anyway that only a small difference in ability between the on-deck hitter and the hitter at the plate would prompt an IBB.

Steven Biel did an analysis here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/320766-rating-the-managers-by-intentional-walks of intentional walks issued in 2009, and he ranked the managers by how often they issued intentional walks that had no statistical chance of improving the pitching team’s chance of winning.  For this analysis, I care less about the manager and more about the aggregate picture of the walks issued.  In 2009, there were 1179 intentional—roughly one every two games.  Biel’s very conservative analysis (done with the help of Baseball Prospectus’s run prediction indexes) showed that 246 of these provided no help to the pitching team.  This is an amount in excess of 20%.  More than one in five times where the manager decides to go to the well with the intentional walk, it is a mistake.  Further, with 246 “bad” IBBs in 2,431 games in 2009, this means that once in every ten games (well over once per day) a manager is making a mistake and putting his team at a disadvantage by allowing another runner to reach base.

So to answer my own question earlier, issuing an intentional pass to Casey might have worked out all right.  But considering that Casey was probably batting in the #3 spot, walking him would have put the winning run on base with the cleanup hitter at the plate—likely providing a much better opportunity for joy in Mudville than the opposing team did by taking their chances with Casey.  However, Biel’s analysis suggests that many of the 30 major league managers would have chosen to walk Casey, as Bud Black did most recently on Saturday, April 10.  Taking into account the number of intelligent people in the United States who would leave well-paying jobs today for a chance to make $10 an hour as a major league manager, it does seem strange that managers so often make the move to put a runner on base when it makes no statistical sense to do so.