#31 Robbie Erlin
San Diego Padres
Previous Rank: N/R
Erlin was the prize of the Mike Adams deal, and he is perhaps the most unique pitcher of the Top-50. While many of the elite arms on this list have blazing hot fastballs and need to come up some in terms of commanding pitches and developing useable third pitches, Erlin already has plus secondary offerings and command. His breaking ball has terrific shape as does his changeup, and he locates both nearly as well as his fastball.
His fastball works in the 88-91 mph range, but can reach 93 mph when he lets one go. Erlin gets great plane on his pitches despite only being 6-foot, and has fluid, repeatable, and athletic mechanics that should keep him healthy. His 2.99 ERA across two leagues (including 16 starts in the Texas League) and 154 strikeouts in 147.1 innings reflect just how dominant Erlin can be despite not having prototypical ace stuff. He only walked 16 guys all season, and despite a bit of a propensity for flyballs, Erlin projects as a very solid No. 2 option in the Show.
|2011||20||3 Teams||2 Lgs||A+-AA||TEX,SDP||9||4||2.99||26||25||0||147.1||16||154|
|AA (1 season)||AA||6||2||3.50||17||16||0||92.2||11||92|
|A (1 season)||A||6||3||2.12||28||17||1||114.2||17||125|
|Rk (1 season)||Rk||0||0||2.25||3||0||0||4.0||1||9|
|A+ (1 season)||A+||3||2||2.14||9||9||0||54.2||5||62|
|2011||20||3 Teams||2 Lgs||A+-AA||TEX,SDP||9||4||2.99||147.1||0.950||7.6||1.1||1.0||9.4||9.63|
|AA (1 season)||AA||6||2||3.50||92.2||1.187||9.6||1.1||1.1||8.9||8.36|
|A (1 season)||A||6||3||2.12||114.2||0.924||7.0||0.7||1.3||9.8||7.35|
|Rk (1 season)||Rk||0||0||2.25||4.0||1.500||11.2||0.0||2.2||20.2||9.00|
|A+ (1 season)||A+||3||2||2.14||54.2||0.549||4.1||1.2||0.8||10.2||12.40|
In a yard like Petco, it is quite reasonable to expect Erlin to perform like a No. 1. We expect him to make at least 10-15 starts in Triple-A before being called up, and he will have to continue to prove that his command is good enough to overcome a lack in pace, but we expect him to stick in the Padre rotation for years.