Mark Twain is responsible for popularizing the Sir Charles Wentworth Dilke quote, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”  As someone who bases many of his opinions on statistics, I could not agree more.  I could take any player, along with any different combination of stats, and come up with two different opinions on that player.  Anyone who has ever manipulated statistics to benefit their own argument knows exactly what I am talking about.  But what about the other times, when you come to an opinion that has no logical basis other than you just feel it?  Deep down inside your gut you have an inkling, an instinct that something will happen.  There is no real rhyme or reason behind this belief.  Most of the time when you mention these beliefs to friends they call you crazy, or some synonym of loco.  The beauty of these types of beliefs is that when they become a reality, when you have used only your gut instinct to defy the laws of statistical analysis, it is a thing of beauty.  I can honestly say that there is no better feeling in the world.

When I was 11-years-old, living in Houston, I told anyone who would listen how the Rockets were going to win it all.  They defied all odds, coming back from a 2-0 deficit in the first round to defeat the Jazz, then coming back from a 3-1 deficit to eliminate the Suns, and finally sweeping Shaq and the Magic in the Finals to win it all; all while becoming the first team in NBA history to defeat four 50-win teams en route to winning an NBA title.  What does this have to do with the 2011 baseball season though?  At 11-years-old, I had no idea what statistics could be used for.  I knew nothing about backing up an opinion with logical information.  I was freaking 11-years-old!  But, somewhere deep down inside I knew, I just knew, that my Rockets were not going to lose a playoff series that year.  Maybe it was because they had the heart of a champion.  Maybe not.  Either way, I made a gut call about sports and it miraculously came to fruition.

Long story short, that premise is the central idea for this article.  In the upcoming weeks you will find a myriad of articles around the web talking about people’s bold predictions.  Most of these predictions have some sort of stat to back them up.  Not me.  I am here to give you some truly outlandish predictions that have no evidence to support them other than I “feel” like it will happen.  This is not about me trying to predict the future correctly.  This is about finding that 11-year-old inside of me who just believed.  This is about having some fun and enjoying letting my imagination run wild with the endless possibilities of what could happen in a baseball season that has yet to start.  So, without further ado, here are my outlandish, completely unwarranted, and instinct-based predictions for the 2011 Major League Baseball season.

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Everyone has a vice.  If you’re like me, you have multiple vices.  My favorite vice, fantasy baseball, is right around the corner, so I just couldn’t help but look for some interesting angle to write on in January.  Analysis of off-season moves are done by, well everyone.  Rankings and season previews are more of a spring-training time piece.  Writing about the shittiness of any one of my Houston Astros’ players value (except Mr. Bourn and WayRod, duh) is pointless for so many reasons.  So what does that really leave a guy with in January?  How about a little head-to-head action…by position.  I’m not talking about looking at the top guys at each position, but rather the guys in those second – possibly third if you’re in a deep league – tier guys that can really make or break your draft and season.  Over the next week and a half, I will take a look at a couple of guys from each position and see how they match up versus their higher drafted counterparts.  As per usual, any ideas, thoughts, or beliefs (both supporting and opposing) are welcomed.

First base is a rather deep position this year with Joey Votto emerging as the hitter many have seen coming, Adrian Gonzalez getting to trade Petco for Fenway, Prince Fielder heading into free agency after the season (I’m a sucker for a guy playing for a new, mega-sized contract), as well as your standards like Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera, and Mark Teixeira.  If you are not fortunate enough to secure one of those guys, then whom do you take a flier on?

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Everyone has a vice.  If you’re like me, you have multiple vices.  My favorite vice, fantasy baseball, is right around the corner, so I just couldn’t help but look for some interesting angle to write on in January.  Analysis of off-season moves are done by, well everyone.  Rankings and season previews are more of a spring-training time piece.  Writing about the shittiness of any one of my Houston Astros’ players value (except Mr. Bourn and WayRod, duh) is pointless for so many reasons.  So what does that really leave a guy with in January?  How about a little head-to-head action…by position.  I’m not talking about looking at the top guys at each position, but rather the guys in those second – possibly third if you’re in a deep league – tier guys that can really make or break your draft and season.  Over the next week and a half, I will be releasing a new position each day.  I will take a look at a couple of guys from each position and see how they match up versus their higher drafted counterparts.  As per usual, any ideas, thoughts, or beliefs (both supporting and opposing) are welcomed.

First base is a rather deep position this year with Joey Votto emerging as the hitter many have seen coming, Adrian Gonzalez getting to trade Petco for Fenway, Prince Fielder heading into free agency after the season (I’m a sucker for a guy playing for a new, mega-sized contract), as well as your standards like Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera, and Mark Teixeira.  If you are not fortunate enough to secure one of those guys, then whom do you take a flier on?

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It’s been a while since I have posted anything here on The Sombrero.  The last couple of weeks have been really busy and perpetually stressful.  I just finished up an exam period that consisted of 12 total tests.  It’s break now, though, and I am back home where it is dumping on the mountain.  I just got word that 15 fresh fell today, which gets the hill over 2 feet of new in the last 48, and it is supposed to pick up when the sun goes down.  Griff, our homeboys the Meyers, and I are headed up in the morning, and it has the potential to be the best Day 1 of my life.  A lot has happened since the last time I posted, but the holidays are getting underway nicely already.  My dad is home from Australia and Grandma is coming down either Thursday or Friday.

As everyone rolled out of bed today, we checked our phones like we do every morning to make sure that nothing earth-shattering happened in the world of baseball overnight.  This morning was one of those rare ones when something like that actually did (Arlo gave me a little heads up on it last night to tell you the truth).  At least it was earth-shattering for the rest of the N.L. Central, because they discovered that the Milwaukee Brewers will have the best rotation in the division next season.  If you’re from Milwaukee, Christmas came a little early this year in the form of former Cy Young winner, Donald Zackary Greinke.

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• ESPN’s Buster Olney finally confirmed last night’s rumor that Zack Greinke had been traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, a story that was first reported by Jim Breen of Bernie’s Crew.  The Kansas City Royals will send Greinke and another major league player – suspected to be Yuniesky Betancourt – to the Brewers, and the Royals will receive shortstop Alcides Escobar, outfielder Lorenzo Cain, flame-throwing right hander Jeremy Jeffress, and 2008 first-round draft pick, Jake Odorizzi.

• With the acquisition of Greinke, the Brewers have made it clear that the 2011 season will be do or die, especially with Prince Fielder’s looming free agency prior to 2012.  If they aren’t having the season that they expected by the All-Star break, it wouldn’t surprise me to see both Fielder and Greinke be dealt, respectively.  The 2009 A.L. Cy Young winner is set to join a Brewers’ rotation that includes Yovani Gallardo, Chris Narveson, and the recently acquired Shaun Marcum.

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