This Saturday I was able to see Josh Bell’s Jesuit Prep take on Richardson High at Jesuit, which is an absolutely immaculate baseball facility with a full turf playing surface, covered hitting tunnels, and a press box.  Clearly the tuition to attend the school must be through the roof.  I’m glad to see they are allocating funds appropriately.

While Texas 5A baseball is regarded as some of the finest high school ball in the country, aside from Bell, there was not a whole lot of interesting baseball being played, but I kind of figured that was going to be the case considering Jesuit was 23-5 and Richardson was 8-12 going into the game.  Nevertheless, Bell barreled up on three pitches, flying out to center in his first AB, grounding out sharply to short in his next, and lining through the right side for a single before drawing a bases-juiced BB.  He received no action defensively, but played center and was clearly the best athlete on the field today.  Bell is a product of the Dallas Patriots club system, so he has been raised in an environment capable of training a talent of this caliber.

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Kaleb Cowart entered the draft in 2010 as a guy who was perceived differently between organizations.  As is the case with all exceptional two-way guys, the question ultimately comes down to which spot will allow the player to reach the big leagues faster.  Here’s why: if the player can reach the bigs fast enough but then fails, the other option now becomes the only option.  Rick Ankiel, Tim Wakefield, Joe Savery, Matt Bush, and Mike Dunn all share a common history, they tried and failed to stick with the role their organizations drafted them to fill.  Now they all are seeing varying levels of success at roles the organizations did not initially feel fit the player or team best.

Cowart currently is trying his luck at third with the Angels and is likely to start the year in Single A.  As an 18-year-old, Cowart was one of the youngest players in his draft class and has terrific power and arm tools.  His hands at third play at average and his feet are good enough, but he is never moving back to a MIF position.  His hit tool grading lags behind the power, but he is athletic and has a chance to pick it up quickly now that he is a baseball player every day and not a student-athlete.

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The Los Angeles Angels drafted Kaleb Cowart with the eighteenth overall pick in the first round of the 2010 MLB Draft.  In his senior year at Cook High School in Georgia, the 18-year-old put together a phenomenal season, both at the plate and on the bump, and was named the Gatorade National Player of the Year.

A switch-hitter, Cowart hit .654 (second highest in state history) with 11 home runs, 59 RBI, and 55 runs.  Futhermore, he posted a 1.206 slugging percentage and .721 on-base percentage — that’s right, a 1.927 OPS — while swiping 36/36 bags.

On the mound, the 6-foot-3 right-hander went 10-1 with a 1.05 ERA in 71 innings, amassing 116 strikeouts and recording a save.

Mark Twain is responsible for popularizing the Sir Charles Wentworth Dilke quote, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”  As someone who bases many of his opinions on statistics, I could not agree more.  I could take any player, along with any different combination of stats, and come up with two different opinions on that player.  Anyone who has ever manipulated statistics to benefit their own argument knows exactly what I am talking about.  But what about the other times, when you come to an opinion that has no logical basis other than you just feel it?  Deep down inside your gut you have an inkling, an instinct that something will happen.  There is no real rhyme or reason behind this belief.  Most of the time when you mention these beliefs to friends they call you crazy, or some synonym of loco.  The beauty of these types of beliefs is that when they become a reality, when you have used only your gut instinct to defy the laws of statistical analysis, it is a thing of beauty.  I can honestly say that there is no better feeling in the world.

When I was 11-years-old, living in Houston, I told anyone who would listen how the Rockets were going to win it all.  They defied all odds, coming back from a 2-0 deficit in the first round to defeat the Jazz, then coming back from a 3-1 deficit to eliminate the Suns, and finally sweeping Shaq and the Magic in the Finals to win it all; all while becoming the first team in NBA history to defeat four 50-win teams en route to winning an NBA title.  What does this have to do with the 2011 baseball season though?  At 11-years-old, I had no idea what statistics could be used for.  I knew nothing about backing up an opinion with logical information.  I was freaking 11-years-old!  But, somewhere deep down inside I knew, I just knew, that my Rockets were not going to lose a playoff series that year.  Maybe it was because they had the heart of a champion.  Maybe not.  Either way, I made a gut call about sports and it miraculously came to fruition.

Long story short, that premise is the central idea for this article.  In the upcoming weeks you will find a myriad of articles around the web talking about people’s bold predictions.  Most of these predictions have some sort of stat to back them up.  Not me.  I am here to give you some truly outlandish predictions that have no evidence to support them other than I “feel” like it will happen.  This is not about me trying to predict the future correctly.  This is about finding that 11-year-old inside of me who just believed.  This is about having some fun and enjoying letting my imagination run wild with the endless possibilities of what could happen in a baseball season that has yet to start.  So, without further ado, here are my outlandish, completely unwarranted, and instinct-based predictions for the 2011 Major League Baseball season.

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On August 16^th, Pittsburgh Pirates GM Neil Huntington announced that they had agreed to terms with their 2^nd round draft pick(52^nd overall) of 2010, RHP Stetson Allie.  However, due to the hype surrounding their 1^st round pick Jameson Taillon, Allie has not received the appropriate exposure for a prep whose fastball can reach triple digits.  Ranked by Baseball America as the 8^th best prospect headed into the 2010 First Year Player Draft, Allie possesses the size and strength that makes scouts drool.  At 6’4,” 225 lbs, he already has the build of a power pitcher- now it’s just a matter of whether he will best serve the Pirates organization as a starter or reliever.

As a senior at St. Edward High School in Lakewood, OH, Allie posted video game like numbers, going 9-1 with 1.29 ERA and 134 strikeouts in just 60 innings.  Even more impressive was the fact that he lead his team to a Division I State Championship on June 6^th, and was the game’s winning pitcher with a line of 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 5 BB and 13 strikeouts.  On that day Allie put on a show for those in attendance, lighting up the stadium’s radar gun with a fastball that averaged 93-96 mph and touched as high as 101.  For the skeptics out there who might not believe that a prep pitcher hit triple digits, here is a video of Allie’s outing from the championship game:

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