Articles from December 2011

#30 Arodys Vizcaino

Atlanta Braves

DOB: 11/13/1990

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2012

Due to the Braves’ outstanding mismanagement of the bullpen in Atlanta, they were forced to temporarily convert Vizcaino into a reliever for the last few months of the season.  He made 17 appearances for Atlanta and walked too many guys, but was otherwise effective and posted a 4.67 ERA and struck out nearly a guy an inning.

For a 20-year-old in a playoff race, those numbers are pretty impressive.  The problem now is that the Braves will have to make a difficult decision in terms of how to use Vizcaino in 2012, and the organization has never shown a propensity for patience.  We at the Sombrero are under the impression that the Braves will force Vizcaino into a bullpen role to open 2012, offering themselves almost zero flexibility in how they use him for the season.

The righty tossed 114.1 innings in 2011 and could probably jump to around 130-150 in 2012 if used as a starter with a chance of reaching 200 innings by 2014 health permitting.  The Braves could also use him in 2012 in what will mostly be low-leverage seventh inning outings and stall his development by at least a year.

Vizcaino has a fastball that reaches the upper-90s, but sits in the 93-95 mph range.  He is a tad under-sized, so there is less plane to his stuff than we prefer.  However, he gets some ride to his fastball on the arm side, and his breaker is a true 60 pitch.  His third pitch is a changeup that currently is average, but he hasn’t used it often enough because he spent so much time in the pen.

With 15-20 starts in the high Minors, it is very possible that Vizcaino could reemerge in Atlanta with three plus or better pitches and improved command making him an immediate impact arm in the NL East.

#31 Robbie Erlin

San Diego Padres

DOB: 10/8/1990

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2012

Erlin was the prize of the Mike Adams deal, and he is perhaps the most unique pitcher of the Top-50.  While many of the elite arms on this list have blazing hot fastballs and need to come up some in terms of commanding pitches and developing useable third pitches, Erlin already has plus secondary offerings and command.  His breaking ball has terrific shape as does his changeup, and he locates both nearly as well as his fastball.

His fastball works in the 88-91 mph range, but can reach 93 mph when he lets one go.  Erlin gets great plane on his pitches despite only being 6-foot, and has fluid, repeatable, and athletic mechanics that should keep him healthy.  His 2.99 ERA across two leagues (including 16 starts in the Texas League) and 154 strikeouts in 147.1 innings reflect just how dominant Erlin can be despite not having prototypical ace stuff.  He only walked 16 guys all season, and despite a bit of a propensity for flyballs, Erlin projects as a very solid No. 2 option in the Show.

In a yard like Petco, it is quite reasonable to expect Erlin to perform like a No. 1.  We expect him to make at least 10-15 starts in Triple-A before being called up, and he will have to continue to prove that his command is good enough to overcome a lack in pace, but we expect him to stick in the Padre rotation for years.

#32 Starling Marte

Pittsburgh Pirates

DOB: 10/9/1988

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2012

Marte has four plus tools and an average one, but he lacks the discipline in the box to be ranked as high as other elite hitters with similar skill sets.  We at The Sombrero treat strike-zone judgment about as seriously as we treat the hit tool itself, and Marte appears to have very little of it.  That said, he posted a tremendously impressive .332/.370/.500 slash line with 24 stolen bases and nearly 60 hits for extra bases in the Eastern League.  He only worked 22 walks in over 560 plate appearances, and, while his ability to lay off secondary stuff improved as the year progressed, he still has a long way to go before he is able to differentiate balls and strikes or square strikes up with secondary offerings.

He is a terrific runner who will eventually move Andrew McCutchen to a corner spot.  His arm will be plus in center and is quite accurate with good carry.  He squares fastballs up as well as anyone in the Minors today and has the legs to beat out several grounders per year.  His power is behind his other tools, but it is at least in the “gap” category now with likely more to come as he matures.

Considering that Marte had a terrific season in Double-A as a 22-year-old, the future is looking very bright in the Pirate outfield.  Marte plays the game very hard and gets great marks for his makeup too.  We expect to see Marte at PNC in 2012, but it hopefully comes after several hundred at-bats in Triple-A first.