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The Golden Sombrero presents MLB Look-alikes: Justin Upton and Cedric Sanders

#49 Christian Yelich
Miami Marlins
Date of Birth: December 5, 1991
Drafted: 1st Round (No. 23 overall) in 2010
ETA: 2014

19-year-old Christian Yelich, in his first full professional season, slashed .312/.388/.484 with 15 bombs, 48 XBH’s, and 32 stolen bases. He struck out in nearly a quarter of his at-bats, but he also walked in over 10% of his plate appearances.

He basically had a phenomenal year in the Sally League and should start the year in High Class A and finish the year in the high Minors with a chance to crack a Big League roster by 2013. He has a below-average arm, but runs well enough to be an everyday left fielder. His power should be a 60 by the time he finishes filling out as well. He has terrific lower body hitting mechanics with an easy weight transfer and a firm front side.

He stays inside pitches well, which allows him to drive the ball to all fields with good carry. His lanky 6-foot-4 frame is loaded with projection, and Yelich is nothing close to a finished product yet. Nevertheless, he has ascended to the top of the Marlins’ rankings and should be an impact corner guy in the show with a very good chance to hit in the middle of the order.

What’s there to say about Adam Dunn’s 2011 season that hasn’t already been said?  With an fWAR of -2.9 over 496 plate appearances, Dunn had one of the worst seasons in baseball history and recorded career lows in nearly every offensive category.  He finished the season with a triple slash line of .159/.292/.277, wRC+ of 59, .118 ISO, 27 extra-base hits, and a measly 42 RBI.

Along the way, the big man amassed three golden sombreros, putting him in a seven-way tie for first place in Major League Baseball.  He picked up his first on May 21 against the Dodgers and then followed it up with his second on May 26 against the Blue Jays.  The final sombrero came exactly a month later at the hands of the Washington Nationals.

Absolutely nothing went Dunn’s way in 2011; he hit like crap and was an utter disappointment in his first season with the White Sox.  There wasn’t a single moment where it seemed as though Dunn might turn the corner.  He never hit that dramatic walk-off bomb in front of a sold out home crowd or had a multi-home run game to rally the troops in his favor.

So what can be attributed to Dunn’s abysmal season? Well, his 35.7% strikeout rate is a good but obvious starting point.  In 415 at-bats this season, Dunn set a franchise record by fanning 177 times.  And although his penchant for striking out is as much of a defining trait as his longball potential, nothing pointed towards a complete offensive collapse.

In 2010, Dunn absolutely torched fastballs, as evidenced by a 32.1 wFB.  This past season, however, he posted a wFB of -8.5 (!), which is easily the worst of his storied career.  His inability to square up fastballs in turn damaged his approach at the plate, causing him to struggle mightily against offspeed pitches: -7.2 wSL (0.7 in 2010), -3.6 wCT (-2.5 in 2010), and -5.8 wCH (-3.9 in 2010) – all career lows.

Dunn also recorded a 57.8% O-Contact% (contact percentage on pitches thrown outside the strikezone), which, when supplemented by his 9.6% HR/FB rate, explains why he was seldom feared by opposing pitchers; they could comfortably attack him within the strikezone without the fear of 450-foot repercussions.

Here is Dunn’s ‘Swing Pitch Type’ chart from this past season:

While his selectiveness was decent—he did manage to coax 75 walks (15.1%)—Dunn simply was unable to consistently drive pitches within the strikezone, something that he’d never really struggled with.  Therefore, it comes as no surprise that Dunn failed to provoke an intentional walk all season for the first time in his 11-year career.

Yet, what Dunn’s season indicates, more than anything else, is a total lack of comfort and confidence at the dish – a realm of the game that cannot be quantified. Sure we can delve through endless statistics in search of some type of rationalization, but there is no true, metric-based explanation for why a player who averaged nearly 40 home runs and 100 RBI per season would suddenly hit his way out of a starting line up.

As any hitter will tell you, there’s nothing more detrimental to one’s performance than a waning level of confidence at the plate.  Once that confidence begins to waver, a hitter suddenly becomes susceptible to a slew of problems – some old, some new.  After scuffling through the first month of the season, Dunn never quite turned the corner as everyone expected he would, including himself.  Instead, his season spiraled out of control, as he absorbed the majority of the blame for the White Sox struggles, which in turn compounded his own personal issues.

#50 Francisco Lindor

Cleveland Indians

Previous Rank: N/A

DOB: November 14, 1993

ETA: 2015

As the first guy off the board in this year’s Sombrero Top 50, Francisco Lindor, the 8^th overall selection from the 2011 draft just squeezed in.  The main knock on him and why he isn’t a little higher is the fact that he signed late and collected less than 20 at-bats as a professional in 2011.  His place among the Top 50 is based solely on who he was as an amateur; he is young (still just 17), was without a doubt the best up-the-middle player in his draft class, and grew up in a phenomenal baseball environment after immigrating to Florida from Puerto Rico.

He has across-the-board tools with a chance to be at least a 50 in each of the five traditional areas and very little downside.  He is listed at 5-foot-11 and 175-pounds, but probably has an inch or two left to grow and should approach 200-pounds by the time he gets makes his big-league debut.  His power tool blossomed a lot during his senior year at Montverde, but still is what scouts like to call in the “doubles” or “gap” range.

Whatever you want to call it, Lindor is a guy with easy athleticism who has a chance to be an impact bat at the toughest position, and has age on his side.  He should rise quickly and may realistically be on a 25-man by his 20^th birthday.

On Tuesday afternoon, Major League Baseball and the Arizona Fall League announced this year’s participants for the 2011 Rising Stars Game.  The game, which will played on Saturday, November 5 at Surprise Stadium, will house many of baseball’s top prospects, players who will be appearing on the Sombrero’s Post-2011 Top 50 Prospects list.

Several of the top pitchers from the 2011 draft class will make their professionally televised debut, including Gerrit Cole (No. 1 overall, Pittsburgh Pirates), Danny Hultzen (No. 2 overall, Seattle Mariners), and Jed Bradley (No. 15 overall, Milwaukee Brewers).

Of course, the Rising Stars game would not be complete without the likes of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, who will man the outfield for the East along with Robbie Grossman, Xavier Avery, and Tim Wheeler.

Who am I most excited to watch? Well, here’s a brief list with absolutely zero explanation as to why: East: Terry Doyle (CWS), Trey McNutt (CHC), Nolan Arenado (COL), Junior Lake (CHC), Joe Panik (SF); West: J.J. Hoover (ATL), Christian Colon (KC), Nick Franklin (SEA), Anthony Gose (TOR), and Wil Myers (KC).

The game will be played at 7 pm eastern and will be broadcast live on both MLB.com and the MLB Network.

RISING STARS ROSTERS