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Dear Astros Fans,

I know it has been a while since we have heard any promising news for the upcoming season.   I know it has probably been as hard for you, as it has been for me.  With stories like this, this, or even this, it’s always a blessing to come across something, anything that can provide a glimmer of hope for the immediate future.  And because I know this feeling, because every day this spring has been filled with someone telling me to be miserable for the next five years, or someone reminding me about how great it used to be, I became an enlightened individual who realized something; THAT’S SOME BULLSHIT!  As devoted of a fan as I am, I have a hard time accepting that stigma.  And so should you, Astros Fans.  Enough is enough.  We don’t have to put up with believing that 2012 is not going to be an exciting, passion-filled, memorable season.  Due to disgust I have decided to do something about it.  I have decided to provide the light on the immediate future, and deliver some generally goodness in the process.  I know it has been a while since we have heard any promising news for the 2012 season.  So, this one, this one here is for ya’ll.  I present to you, at least five reasons (who knows, ya’ll might figure out even more) why it’s better to be an Astros Fan, than any other MLB fan this summer.

With love,

Griffin

 At Least 5 Reasons Why It’s Better To Be An Astros Fan in 2012.

 5.       A chance at history

Let’s face it…there is no getting around the fact that 2012 might be rough.  If there were ever a silver lining, it would be this- getting in the record books.  Some might choose not to see it this way, but this really would be a great opportunity for the Houston Astros.  The record book is made to hold the names of people who were the best of the best.  No matter the craft, there is no room for second best.  Even if what you might have been best at is losing.  If you are going to be bad, then you might as well go out in record-setting fashion.  No matter what, if the 2012 Houston Astros were to set the all time single season loss record, this team could never die.  It will withstand the test of time for future generations to enjoy; albeit in a different way.  And that is all we truly want as a sports fan.   That one magical season where the stars align just right, and magic is made.  Who cares what kind of magic it is.

4. Sig Mejdal

Taking on the role of Director of Decision Sciences can’t help but to get us started.  He comes from the front office of the St. Louis Cardinals.  With Minute Maid Park as his new office, expect him to bring a fresh take on evaluating, and changing habits in, evaluating the decisions being made.  The draft this summer won’t be his first rodeo either.  He has been a key contributor on Cardinals draft day since 2005.  To help aide him in his efforst, Mejdal hired an assistant- Mike Fast of Baseball Prospectus.  Another fantastic direction it appears the Astros are heading down.

3. Jeff Luhnow

Thank you, Mr. Crane.  What a spectacular hire.  Not only did we steal him away from our (soon to be no more) division rival Cardinals, we scored big time.  With a history of strong drafts and embracing the numbers along with the talent to use as one universal scouting system, I’m really happy about the front office of the Astros.   From what I have read and heard, so are a lot of other people.  Bringing in this next man just adds to my giddiness.

2. Jim Crane

When we talk about a rebuilding process in Houston we ain’t messing around.  We start at the top.  New ownership truly does clear the slate.  No better time than the present.  Jim Crane brings with him an eye for the future- both as far as the team on the field, and the butts in the seats.  Slashing prices and allowing you to bring in your own food is a great start.  Plus, he understands that an analytic/scientific approach to the numbers of the game can help a franchise out.  That explains the Jeff Luhnow hiring.  And to top it off, he resisted the tyranny that is Bud Selig and got our guns back!  (If that ain’t some Texas shit ya’ll, I don’t know what is.)

1. First overall pick in the draft

We could not ask for much more.  Let’s be real with ourselves, Houston.  This is as good as it gets for right now.  We are allowed first dibs on a crop of great young talent.  Remember, this is a long-term plan we are dealing with here.  Everyone knows that to rebuild, you do it from with-in.  With any luck, we might even most certainly will have the same pick for the next two years.  This pick, followed by possibly a second number one pick and about five top five picks over the next  five seasons is a foundation to get you out of the cellar and heading in the right direction.  Aboard this gravy train of draft picks, along with the healthy market size of Houston, this franchise will be back at the top before you realize it.  But until then, it’s all about the draft picks.  So read up on prospects, and watch as they transform before our eyes, and remember- each pick is another potential for magic to happen.

H/T to my colleagues from Prep Baseball Report Illinois for tweeting a link to this video earlier today.  Connor Powers was the 2006 PBR Illinois Player of the Year and currently plays in the San Diego Padres organization.

Fantasy analysts are always talking about players that they are “planting their flags in” (Am I supposed to feel dirty when I type that?) each year.  I used to think this was a bad idea, as it might lead to poor draft day decisions.  Now that I am more seasoned I realize that we all develop an affinity for certain players each year.  I’m not talking your studs though.  Anybody can tell you to draft Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, or Roy Halladay.  For me, planting your flag requires you to step out on a limb of sorts.  These are the players that you feel, for whatever reason, are going to be big hits for the upcoming season.  For this article, I want to take a look at three players in which my flag has been metaphorically planted.

Mike Morse:

Last week in my live-blogged mock draft I explained how excited I was about getting Morse on my squad.  I referenced this video clip, and talked about how much I liked his swing.  Well I decided to take it a step further and look to see what his numbers said.  The numbers that caught my eye were his increased line drive rate, coupled with his decreasing ground ball rate.  Match those with an 85% contact rate and I see no reason why he can’t sustain a BABIP similar to his 2011 average of .344.  I predict a .290 average, 30 jacks, 90 RBI, and 70 runs scored.

Bud Norris:

Yes, he pitches for the lowly Astros.  Yes, he probably won’t accumulate many wins.  But if you’re chasing wins as a fantasy strategy, this might not be the website for you.  Not only can you snag Bud late in drafts, you will be getting an amazing bargain when you do.  He lowered his walk total last year, while actually increasing his innings pitched by 33. His 2011 ERA of 3.77 matched perfectly with his xFIP of 3.73.  His k/9 rate sits right at 8.5, and with a swing and miss rate right around 30% I see potential for a true breakout year.  I think Bud finishes the year with 197 IP, 205 K’s, and an ERA of 3.78.

Yoenis Cespedes:

I know, I know, we haven’t even seen him face big league pitching yet.  And to be honest I have no statistical evidence to support this pick.  Sometimes though, you just have to go with your gut.  Blind faith is counter-intuitive to almost everything I believe, but I am also a fan of legalized gaming.  Thus, I have no problem taking a gamble on Cespedes.  I might even reach a few rounds early just to get him.  To win your fantasy league you have to hit at least one grand slam on an unknown player.  For me, this is the guy.  No prediction here.  Just going with my gut that he completely outperforms the value of the draft pick I get him for.

You can follow Griffin on Twitter- his handle is @sp_flips.  Feel free to support, harass, or share any thoughts you have and he will be sure to reply.

With the college season — and high school season, for the most part — already under way, speculation is swirling regarding who will be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft in June.  Due to the quality of arms, both collegiate and prep, in this year’s draft class, it’s likely that first player off the board will be a pitcher.  And considering our ongoing fascination with the prospects in the 2012 draft class, it’s only appropriate to open a poll while the season is still young.  Therefore, the staff at The Golden Sombrero is curious as to who, you, our faithful readers, believe will be the No. 1 selection in the 2012 draft:

[poll id=”10″]

RHP Lucas Giolito, Harvard-Westlake (CA)

• John Kilma of Baseball Prospect Report had another look at Lucas Giolito this past week and captured more video of the right-hander.  He didn’t touch 100 MPH as he allegedly did last week, but Kilma had him at 96-98 MPH from the stack in the first and 94-96 MPH in the third.  Kilma also states that Giolito is one of the two best 17-year-old pitchers that he’s personally scouted, the other being Felix Hernandez.

• Over at FanGraphs, J.P. Breen examines 10 high school bats that figure to be an early selection in the 2012 draft in June.  The quality of prep outfield prospects this year is particularly impressive: Byron Buxton (GA), David Dahl (AL), Courtney Hawkins (TX), and Albert Almora (FL).

• Jeff Reese and Al Skorupa of Bullpen Banter compare college right-handers Kevin Gausman and Mark Appel, both of whom hope to keep their name in the 1-1 conversation.

• The great John Sickels of Minor League Ball completed a mock draft with Matt Garrioch and without spoiling all of the results, here is a quick glance at their top five overall: 1. Kevin Gausman (Astros); 2. Lucas Giolito (Twins); 3. Mike Zunino (Mariners); 4. Byron Buxton (Orioles); 5. Mark Appel (Royals)

• Conor Glassey of Baseball America posted scouting notes and video of Stony Brook outfielder Travis Jankowski, who is currently No. 24 on their Top 100 draft board.  The video includes Jankowski’s pre-game batting practice as well as clips from a 3-for-5 performance against Eastern Carolina.  I love how quiet this kid is at the plate not to mention his ability to use the whole field.  I think I’m going to have to go check him out once it warms up a bit.

Want to discuss prospects with Mike or simply pass along a link? Then be sure to follow him on Twitter (@GoldenSombrero).