Posts belonging to Category Prospects/Rookies

#28 Jake Odorizzi

Kansas City Royals

DOB: 3/27/1990

Previous Rank: 35

ETA: 2013

As the highest ceiling player moved for Zack Greinke last winter in the blockbuster deal between the Royals and Brewers, the expectations were significant for Odorizzi this year.  He excelled in the Carolina League and earned himself a promotion to Double-A.  His numbers took a hit a little bit in his 12 starts for Northwest Arkansas as we might expect for a 21-year-old in an advanced league, but he still finished the year with an sub-4.00 ERA and 157 strikeouts against 44 walks in nearly 150 innings.

He likely will begin the year back in the Texas League, but a quick promotion is possible given the shortage of quality starters in KC and the urgency of competing in the Central before Alex Gordon and Billy Butler begin their declines.  Odorizzi is undoubtedly the top pitcher in the system, and we at The Sombrero really hope, for Kansas City’s sake, that they don’t do something stupid like trade him for a mid-level starter this winter or at the 2012 deadline if they are still in the hunt.

His fastball reaches 96 mph and sits at 93-94, and his breaking ball is a sledge when in the zone.  His command of it needs to improve, but he has a couple of years still before it absolutely must be reliable.  He throws a slider and a change as well, but they are behind the fastball and curveball and will be no better than 50s.  Still, Odorizzi is a strike-throwing fireballer with a projectable, athletic frame and results that suggest he will be a consistent No. 2 at worst.

#29 Jonathan Singleton

Houston Astros

DOB: 9/18/1991

Previous Rank: 37

ETA: 2014

Singleton was the centerpiece of the deal that sent Hunter Pence to the Philadelphia.  Prior to the trade, Singleton spent time at both first and left.  This ranking is based on the premise that Singleton, despite possessing a grading of 30-40 in the speed tool and a 40-50 arm, ends up playing at least several seasons in the outfield.  Houston seems to prefer him at first, but with new ownership there is some hope that the Astros begin to make better decisions in how they handle their player development.

His bat is outstanding, and he already gets 60s in terms of discipline and hit tool.  The power grade is still just average, but there is enough loft in his cut that he will grow into more bombs as he matures.  As just a 19-year-old, Singleton slashed .298/.392/.441 with 13 dingers and 70 walks in around 520 plate appearances across two stops, finishing up the year in the California League.  He had pretty noticeable splits in favor of his appearances against right-handers as should be expected, but he hangs on well against secondary stuff and is almost always down with his front early enough to stay back with his legs.

He takes a direct approach to contact and generates terrific carry with good thump.  Singleton should begin the year in Double-A since his numbers improved in the California League.  A full season there could probably do him some good especially if used in the outfield, but he has the bat and maturity to earn a promotion if his numbers at the dish justify it.  It is highly possible that Singleton reaches Houston by 2013, and he even has an outside shot at a cup this September.  We think Opening Day in 2014 sounds best, though.

#30 Arodys Vizcaino

Atlanta Braves

DOB: 11/13/1990

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2012

Due to the Braves’ outstanding mismanagement of the bullpen in Atlanta, they were forced to temporarily convert Vizcaino into a reliever for the last few months of the season.  He made 17 appearances for Atlanta and walked too many guys, but was otherwise effective and posted a 4.67 ERA and struck out nearly a guy an inning.

For a 20-year-old in a playoff race, those numbers are pretty impressive.  The problem now is that the Braves will have to make a difficult decision in terms of how to use Vizcaino in 2012, and the organization has never shown a propensity for patience.  We at the Sombrero are under the impression that the Braves will force Vizcaino into a bullpen role to open 2012, offering themselves almost zero flexibility in how they use him for the season.

The righty tossed 114.1 innings in 2011 and could probably jump to around 130-150 in 2012 if used as a starter with a chance of reaching 200 innings by 2014 health permitting.  The Braves could also use him in 2012 in what will mostly be low-leverage seventh inning outings and stall his development by at least a year.

Vizcaino has a fastball that reaches the upper-90s, but sits in the 93-95 mph range.  He is a tad under-sized, so there is less plane to his stuff than we prefer.  However, he gets some ride to his fastball on the arm side, and his breaker is a true 60 pitch.  His third pitch is a changeup that currently is average, but he hasn’t used it often enough because he spent so much time in the pen.

With 15-20 starts in the high Minors, it is very possible that Vizcaino could reemerge in Atlanta with three plus or better pitches and improved command making him an immediate impact arm in the NL East.

#31 Robbie Erlin

San Diego Padres

DOB: 10/8/1990

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2012

Erlin was the prize of the Mike Adams deal, and he is perhaps the most unique pitcher of the Top-50.  While many of the elite arms on this list have blazing hot fastballs and need to come up some in terms of commanding pitches and developing useable third pitches, Erlin already has plus secondary offerings and command.  His breaking ball has terrific shape as does his changeup, and he locates both nearly as well as his fastball.

His fastball works in the 88-91 mph range, but can reach 93 mph when he lets one go.  Erlin gets great plane on his pitches despite only being 6-foot, and has fluid, repeatable, and athletic mechanics that should keep him healthy.  His 2.99 ERA across two leagues (including 16 starts in the Texas League) and 154 strikeouts in 147.1 innings reflect just how dominant Erlin can be despite not having prototypical ace stuff.  He only walked 16 guys all season, and despite a bit of a propensity for flyballs, Erlin projects as a very solid No. 2 option in the Show.

In a yard like Petco, it is quite reasonable to expect Erlin to perform like a No. 1.  We expect him to make at least 10-15 starts in Triple-A before being called up, and he will have to continue to prove that his command is good enough to overcome a lack in pace, but we expect him to stick in the Padre rotation for years.

#32 Starling Marte

Pittsburgh Pirates

DOB: 10/9/1988

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2012

Marte has four plus tools and an average one, but he lacks the discipline in the box to be ranked as high as other elite hitters with similar skill sets.  We at The Sombrero treat strike-zone judgment about as seriously as we treat the hit tool itself, and Marte appears to have very little of it.  That said, he posted a tremendously impressive .332/.370/.500 slash line with 24 stolen bases and nearly 60 hits for extra bases in the Eastern League.  He only worked 22 walks in over 560 plate appearances, and, while his ability to lay off secondary stuff improved as the year progressed, he still has a long way to go before he is able to differentiate balls and strikes or square strikes up with secondary offerings.

He is a terrific runner who will eventually move Andrew McCutchen to a corner spot.  His arm will be plus in center and is quite accurate with good carry.  He squares fastballs up as well as anyone in the Minors today and has the legs to beat out several grounders per year.  His power is behind his other tools, but it is at least in the “gap” category now with likely more to come as he matures.

Considering that Marte had a terrific season in Double-A as a 22-year-old, the future is looking very bright in the Pirate outfield.  Marte plays the game very hard and gets great marks for his makeup too.  We expect to see Marte at PNC in 2012, but it hopefully comes after several hundred at-bats in Triple-A first.