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#9 Manny Machado

Baltimore Orioles

DOB: 7/6/1992

Previous Rank: 23

ETA: 2014

Machado is the top middle infield prospect in the Minors today, unless we are counting Anthony Rendon.  The Florida-native failed at the plate upon a promotion to the Carolina League, but he torched the Sally League, posting an .859 OPS and walking nearly as many times as he struck out.  His posted a slash line of .245/.308/.384 on the year, went deep 11 times, and stole 11 bases, but needs to make more consistent contact as well as develop some discipline in the box.

Machado has elite tools and no real weaknesses, and should develop into one of the truly special shortstops in the game.  Scouts see him as a plus-hit/plus-power offensive player with enough range and more than enough arm for short.  His hands are not consistent in the field and his footwork can get sloppy, but a teenager at short in the Carolina League is given the benefit of the doubt every time.  If he is forced to shift positions, which we are skeptical of (at least for the rest of this decade), he will have plenty of bat to stick at third.  Machado is as toolsy as they come, and when he grows into his 6-foot-3 frame a bit, he will light up whatever league he finds himself in.

On the latest installment of The Baseball Show, Clint, MJ, and I discussed the week’s most interesting story lines as well as our usual assortment of nonsense.

We started things off by discussing Yu Darvish and how his signing was inevitable after the Rangers posted a $51.7MM bid, so it’s no surprise that they ultimately paid $111MM.  According to MJ, Darvish would have to produce a 22 WAR over the next six years to justify his price.  But what separates Darvish from previous imports like Hideo Nomo and Dice-K?

We also debate whether or not Darvish will perform like the No. 1 starter that Rangers expect him to be.

We discuss MJ’s Baseball Prospectus debut, “The Advantage of Low Expectations,” which has been well received throughout the baseball blogosphere.

A day after our last show, the Yankees and Mariners conducted a big-time prospect swap, as the Bronx Bombers sent Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to the Mariners for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos.  We evaluate the trade and can’t help but feel that the Yankees were on the winning end of this swap.

Who has received the best return for their starting pitcher this offseason? Although we agree the Padres received a great haul for Mat Latos, we unanimously agree the A’s received the best return this offseason.

And of course, what would The Baseball Show be without “Ask MJ…”

Clint:

Would you take a job in the Angels front office if it were offered to you today?

Yes

Cure for hangover? No booze – note: you can’t say “more booze.”

You’re going to have to find a Waffle House and order the greasiest Cheese Stake plate with hash browns and jalapeños to get through it.

Weirdest thing you’ve ever owned or collected?

I was a huge baseball card fan, but mainly when I was growing up I spent a lot of money on hockey cards for some reason.  I doubt I could get anything for my Pavel Buree rookie card.  I do have an autographed John Smoltz Starting Lineup figurine still in its package.

If you could sit at a bar and have a drink with any three sports figures, who would it be and why?

1)    Mickey Mantle – We’re going to have a good time and hopefully get into some trouble

2)    Wayne Gretzky – He was my hero growing up

3)    Dana White – I like I guy who curses every other word

4)    More so 3a) Mike Trout received an honorable mention provided that MJ can find him a semi-decent fake I.D.

Clint:

1)    Mickey Mantle

2)    Willie Mays, but he’s just an old saltry prick

3)    Joe Nameth – he likes to drink Johnny Walker

4)    Babe Ruth – The more drunk Yankees the better

Mike:

1)    Mickey Mantle

2)    Michael Jordan

3)    Mark Grace

We agree that Vin Scully would have to be there to narrate the entire night.

Mike:

If you could sponsor one BR page, regardless of price, who would it be?

Too easy. I literally sat around waiting for Mike Trout to buy his page. If not, then it would probably be Barry Bonds.

Your favorite Disney movie?

Cinderalla, and you’re not going to believe his response…

Rookie of the Year or the Sandlot?

The Sandlot. No question.

Celery or Celery Salt?

Celery. They should just re-name it “ranch shovel”

Jered Weaver: Long hair or short hair?

Long hair! Come on, he’s a dirt bag.

If you could assume a fake identity, what would it be?

MJ: Viagra Nopantsman, a middle-aged pitcher; Hunter Dye and he’d carry around a shotgun like Omar from The Wire.

CE: Chet Rockwell, 29 yrs old, DH, can’t run

MR: Speechless

My good friend MJ Lloyd of OffBasePercentage.com and HaloHangout.com made his highly anticipated Baseball Prospectus debut this morning.  Featured as a columnist in the prestigious Baseball ProGUESTus series, MJ’s article, “The Advantage of Low Expectations,” blends commentary on some of the more famous prospect flops of the past two decades with his usual array of utter nonsense.  If that doesn’t sound like a great read, then you are forever banished from this site.

Here is a excerpt:

Prospects are like new car smell. They’re exciting and intoxicating. They make it seem like your favorite team is about to turn the corner.

With prospect analysis and news having penetrated every corner of the Internet, it’s hard not to get carried away with prospect love. I can’t imagine how many tweets Kevin Goldstein and Keith Law have to see every day asking if Team X’s third- and fifth-best prospects would be enough to score Felix Hernandez.

It’s prospect-mania out there. I’m guilty of it. I sponsor Brandon Wood’s Baseball-Reference page, and I’m no longer hopeful that it will fund my retirement plan.

But I have managed to identify a few of the pitfalls of prospect worship.

Read the rest of “The Advantage of Low Expectations”

#10 Jesus Montero

Seattle Mariners

DOB: 11/28/1989

Previous Rank: 7

ETA: 2011

As the centerpiece of the deal that sent Michael Pineda, a power arm in his early 20s that has already been named to an All-Star team, Montero obviously has earned himself quite a reputation already.  This trade is further evidence of the reevaluation that is taking place with regards to the relative worth of premier bats and premier arms.  Additionally this represents the second consecutive season in which the Mariners have managed to land a hitter in our top 10.

Montero blew up at Yankee Stadium, slashing .328/.406/.590 in 61 at-bats during the Yanks’ playoff push.  While no one expects him to immediately hit that way to open 2012, and he notoriously starts slow regardless, that slash line is not impossible or even unlikely for the 22-year-old catcher/1B/DH/?.

We at The Sombrero expect Montero to be used a lot like Victor Martinez was used in 2011 with Detroit.  Everyone is fully aware of Montero’s struggles behind the dish and the unlikely prognosis of him ever even reaching replacement level status as a backstop.  Montero is slow, uninterested, and inaccurate behind the dish.  He calls a poor game and is likely to be bad defensively no matter where he plays.  The logical play is to put him wherever he can do the least damage on the defensive end. He is plus to double-plus in both the hit and power tools as well as the eye tool.

It remains to be seen exactly what Seattle intends to do with Montero given the presence of Justin Smoak at first, suggesting that some time behind the dish might be expected in 2012.  Wherever he plays, Montero is an All-Star-caliber player and needs absolutely no more seasoning on the farm.  He should open 2012 hitting somewhere near or within the middle of Seattle’s order.

After a monster 2011 season, Arenado jumps from No. 44 to No. 21

Just as we did prior to the start of the 2011 season, The Golden Sombrero is currently unveiling our Top 50 Prospects.  Due to the promotion of many of baseball’s finest prospects over the course of last season, our new list features a slew of new names thanks to strong performances across various minor league levels.  Only time will tell whether this new crop of prospects will match the hype and success of last season’s, but one thing is certain – they are the future of baseball.  Before we crack the Top 10, however, here is a quick recap of the players we’ve highlighted thus far, and where they were ranked headed into the 2011 season:

50. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

49. Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

48.  Joseph Wieland, RHP, San Diego Padres – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

47. Jarred Cosart, RHP, Houston Astros – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

46. Michael Choice, OF, Oakland Athletics – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

45. Matt Harvey, RHP, New York Mets – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

44. Sonny Gray, RHP, Oakland Athletics – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

43. Zack Cox, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals, — Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

42. Yasmani Grandal, C, Cincinnati Reds – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

41. Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York Mets – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

40. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Tampa Bay Rays – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

39. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

38. Wil Myers, OF, Kansas City Royals – Pre-2011 Rank: 15

37. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Boston Red Sox – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

36. Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago Cubs – Pre-2011 Ranks: 43

35. Carlos Martinez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

34. Gary Brown, OF, San Francisco Giants – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

33. Randall Delgado, RHP, Atlanta Braves – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

32. Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

31. Robbie Erlin, LHP, San Diego Padres – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

30. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Atlanta Braves – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

29. Jonathan Singleton, 1B/OF, Houston Astros – Pre-2011 Rank: 37

28. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Kansas City Royals – Pre-2011 Rank: 35

27. Travis d’Arnaud, C, Toronto Blue Jays – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

26. Manny Banuelos, LHP, New York Yankees – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

25. Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

24. Josh Bell, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates – Pre-2011 Rank: N/A

23. Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Rangers – Pre-2011 Rank: 28

22. Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Colorado Rockies – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

21. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies – Pre-2011 Rank: 44

20. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks – Pre-2011 Rank: N/A

19. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

18. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

17. Devin Mesoraco, C, San Diego Padres – Pre-2011 Rank: 27

16. Bubba Starling, OF, Kansas City Royals – Pre-2011 Rank: N/A

15. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Oakland Athletics – Pre-2011 Rank: 8

14. Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit Tigers – Pre-2011 Rank: 19

13. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers – Pre-2011 Rank: N/R

12. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates – Pre-2011 Rank: 14

11. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Seattle Mariners – Pre-2011 Rank: N/A