Posts belonging to Category fantasy baseball

This afternoon the Towel and I completed a trade in the Denslow Cup that we had been discussing since last week.  It involved David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman as the centerpieces, and since I had Zimmerman, my side was going to be bigger.  We play in a league that uses both OBP and Slug% as well as the traditional rotisserie categories.  Obviously Wright’s projected numbers year in and year out are going to give him a little more spring value than a guy like Zimmerman in our league because the couple percentage points Wright walks more than Zimmerman essentially cancels out the 5 or 6 extra points of contact percentage that Zimmerman will throw up come October.  Wright will steal roughly 10-15 more bases most years than Zimmerman, though, which gives him the edge.  Both are injury prone to an extent as well.

What I’m getting at here is that a trade involving these two guys should simply not involve any other truly valuable players beyond these two guys because they are strikingly similar players in a league like The Cup.  To further solidify my point, Wright’s ADP in ESPN league’s right now is 36.0, and Zimmerman’s is 39.0.  It does not take much value to square up a trade between two players that are 3.0 draft positions apart.

What that means is that I got hosed, because I threw in Josh Beckett and John Axford to go along with Ryan Zimmerman to bring back an oft injured 29-year old whose best season was now five years ago.  What’s more, Wright is in the middle of one of the hottest periods of his career at the dish and has a fractured finger.  Finally, the Mets are awful.  There is no realistic reason to think that anyone in that lineup will bang in 100 runners or score 100 runs himself because it’s basically a lineup comprised of refuse, Wright, Ike Davis, and Daniel Murphy.  Beckett is currently being taken at the 103 spot on average and Axford is going ten spots earlier.  What that means is that according to ADP, I gave up three guys in the top 100 for the guy I just described.

How could I do that?  Well, in short, I didn’t like looking at my squad every day and not seeing Wright’s name.  I hated watching highlight shows of him performing so well and playing so courageously through injury while on another manager’s squad.  David is my favorite player.  As I write this, I occasionally drift off and take in the objects in my room.  Directly under my television is an autographed photo of David driving in Luis Castillo from second that Whitney got me for my 26^th birthday.

David Wright is my favorite baseball player ever (tied with Nomar…duh), and I don’t mind if I got hosed in April to get him on my squad, because he is the kind of player that will keep me motivated and interested for the next six months.  If I didn’t already have Jimmy Rollins, Andre Ethier, or Shane Victorino, I’d be making the same kind of boneheaded moves to get them too.

That brings me to my final thought of the day.  I love the squad that I drafted this season more than any season in the past.  I have an entire lineup of my kind of guys.  When I say that, I mean that my squad collectively knows how to hit.  They crush strikes and take balls.  They hit the ball in the air.  They are either terrific athletes or young enough that it doesn’t matter yet.  And now, I have David.  If I don’t win this season, I’m going to be pretty upset, but what I’m fairly sure of is that my team hits, and that’s a really, really big deal to me, because for the next six months, they are an extension of myself.  When I look at my lineup before I go to bed, my team’s performance over the previous 24 hours is going to have a large and meaningful impact on the next 24 hours.

That’s just life in The Denslow Cup, bro.

Fantasy analysts are always talking about players that they are “planting their flags in” (Am I supposed to feel dirty when I type that?) each year.  I used to think this was a bad idea, as it might lead to poor draft day decisions.  Now that I am more seasoned I realize that we all develop an affinity for certain players each year.  I’m not talking your studs though.  Anybody can tell you to draft Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, or Roy Halladay.  For me, planting your flag requires you to step out on a limb of sorts.  These are the players that you feel, for whatever reason, are going to be big hits for the upcoming season.  For this article, I want to take a look at three players in which my flag has been metaphorically planted.

Mike Morse:

Last week in my live-blogged mock draft I explained how excited I was about getting Morse on my squad.  I referenced this video clip, and talked about how much I liked his swing.  Well I decided to take it a step further and look to see what his numbers said.  The numbers that caught my eye were his increased line drive rate, coupled with his decreasing ground ball rate.  Match those with an 85% contact rate and I see no reason why he can’t sustain a BABIP similar to his 2011 average of .344.  I predict a .290 average, 30 jacks, 90 RBI, and 70 runs scored.

Bud Norris:

Yes, he pitches for the lowly Astros.  Yes, he probably won’t accumulate many wins.  But if you’re chasing wins as a fantasy strategy, this might not be the website for you.  Not only can you snag Bud late in drafts, you will be getting an amazing bargain when you do.  He lowered his walk total last year, while actually increasing his innings pitched by 33. His 2011 ERA of 3.77 matched perfectly with his xFIP of 3.73.  His k/9 rate sits right at 8.5, and with a swing and miss rate right around 30% I see potential for a true breakout year.  I think Bud finishes the year with 197 IP, 205 K’s, and an ERA of 3.78.

Yoenis Cespedes:

I know, I know, we haven’t even seen him face big league pitching yet.  And to be honest I have no statistical evidence to support this pick.  Sometimes though, you just have to go with your gut.  Blind faith is counter-intuitive to almost everything I believe, but I am also a fan of legalized gaming.  Thus, I have no problem taking a gamble on Cespedes.  I might even reach a few rounds early just to get him.  To win your fantasy league you have to hit at least one grand slam on an unknown player.  For me, this is the guy.  No prediction here.  Just going with my gut that he completely outperforms the value of the draft pick I get him for.

You can follow Griffin on Twitter- his handle is @sp_flips.  Feel free to support, harass, or share any thoughts you have and he will be sure to reply.

All fantasy baseball players begin jonesing for a fix after the New Year kicks off.  I cannot be excluded from this group. I always try to wait and indulge in my first mock draft once all the big names and major moves off the off-season have finished panning out.  With the announcement of Ryan Braun’s victorious appeal coming yesterday, Friday night seems like the perfect time to kick things off. I thought this year it might be fun to live blog my first draft of the 2012 mock draft season.  The Denslow Cup, my only fantasy baseball league, is a 12 team, 7×7 roto league that includes OBP and K/BB.

RD 1 (3) I took Jose Bautista here.  Pujols and Cabrera were first off the board, so you may wonder why not take Tulo here.  Well, I am 99% sure that in my league, the Denslow Cup, Tulo is going to be the 2^nd overall pick.  I have the 3^rd pick so I am pretty sure this will be my first pick in my real draft this spring.  Not like there is anything to complain about here either.

RD 2 (22) Here I took Mike Stanton.  I was hoping to have a shot at a middle of the infield guy such as HanRam, Reyes, Kinsler, or Pedroia…but that didn’t work out.  So, I went with a big ass bopper.  New stadium with a new shiny home run thingy.  Great guys in front of him.  HUGE power.  No reason to believe in a sophomore slump.  I am happy with this pick.

RD 3 (27) I decided on my main man, Tim Lincecum.  Last year I took him in round 2.  That was also the 1^st year I ever drafted a starter before round 6.  I like having an ace.  As a pitching coach I love Lincecum’s mechanics and what it does for him in terms of IP and K’s.  I see his increased walk rate as no big deal, and returning closer to what it was his first 2 years in the league.  Now I can focus on hitting for a while.

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Wow, what a week.  We had two no-hitters and a few pitchers come up just short of a no-hitter.  We also saw a couple streaks come to an end.  Unfortunately, Andre Ethier was not able to record a hit for a 31^st consecutive game, and Joey Votto’s streak of reaching base safely ended at 33 games.  Thankfully, both of these guys are on my team and helping me hold strong amongst the leaders in the Denslow Cup.  These guys are obviously finding themselves at the top of the charts in fantasy leagues across the globe.  Let’s take a look today at some names that were expected to be big producers, but are nowhere to be found.  Right now is a great time to turn one owner’s regrets into your own small fortune.

Again, I have no new trades to report in the Denslow Cup.  One owner is searching for saves and looking to deal SP to get them.  However, he did this via the Samurai Board (our message board).  He has rejected every trade thrown his way and at least in dealing with me has never even tried to negotiate anything.  This brings me to a point I want to make about trading: don’t just throw up your trade wants on the league message board.  Just looking at the standings and scoring will give owners an idea of what you need or don’t need.  Also, if you do not like a trade, reply with an email about what specifically you don’t like about the proposal.  It is never helpful to just say, “Nope.  This trade sucks.”  It really makes it easier for you and other owners to find out just where you stand on different pieces in different trades.  Now, on to guys I’m getting and getting rid of.

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When I last wrote about my first fantasy exploits, I was losing in the first week with only three days left. My staff was performing poorly, and I was freaking out in front of my computer screen while Madison Bumgarner, Matt Thornton, and Ted Lilly tried to sabotage my team. After an awkward first week, my staff looked up the definition of “pitcher” in the Oxford-English dictionary and realized what they were doing didn’t fall under those guidelines—and they did something about it (or I made a move). We’ve been through four weeks of heated battles, and I thought I’d give the reader a breakdown of each week, including my weekly moves (henceforth referred to as “Strategery”), best hitter (“Neck Snapper”) and best pitcher (“Cash Checker”). It goes a little something like this:

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