Um, what?

#48 Joseph Wieland

San Diego Padres

DOB: 1/21/90

Previously Ranked: N/A

ETA: 2012

Joe Wieland was part of the deal that sent Mike Adams to Texas, and considering how valuable Adams was to the bullpen in both San Diego and Texas, Wieland is obviously viewed as a future Big League contributor.  We at The Sombrero will go a step further.  Wieland will be a top of the rotation arm for years.  We are talking a solid two in the Show.

His stuff isn’t as imposing as other arms that will crack our top 50, but his command is outrageously good.  He walked 21 guys over 150 innings in 2011 for Christ’s sake.  The strikeout totals were nearly one per inning, and he did a solid job keeping the ball in the yard as well.

Wieland should start the year in San Antonio, but he should move quickly to Triple-A.  There is a very real chance he cracks the rotation in San Diego by the end of 2012.  His fastball reaches 93, and his breaking ball is of the 12-6 variety with quality shape.  Both pitches are solid average to above on their own, but Wieland’s command plays each pitch into the 55-60 range.  His changeup is not used as often, but it has decent fade and should be a solid 50 pitch.  Wieland has an athletic 6-foot-3 frame and very clean and easy mechanics that should allow him to stay reasonably healthy.  This is not an ace arm, but it is the kind of No. 2 that every team wants.

The Golden Sombrero presents MLB Look-alikes: Justin Upton and Cedric Sanders

#49 Christian Yelich
Miami Marlins
Date of Birth: December 5, 1991
Drafted: 1st Round (No. 23 overall) in 2010
ETA: 2014

19-year-old Christian Yelich, in his first full professional season, slashed .312/.388/.484 with 15 bombs, 48 XBH’s, and 32 stolen bases. He struck out in nearly a quarter of his at-bats, but he also walked in over 10% of his plate appearances.

He basically had a phenomenal year in the Sally League and should start the year in High Class A and finish the year in the high Minors with a chance to crack a Big League roster by 2013. He has a below-average arm, but runs well enough to be an everyday left fielder. His power should be a 60 by the time he finishes filling out as well. He has terrific lower body hitting mechanics with an easy weight transfer and a firm front side.

He stays inside pitches well, which allows him to drive the ball to all fields with good carry. His lanky 6-foot-4 frame is loaded with projection, and Yelich is nothing close to a finished product yet. Nevertheless, he has ascended to the top of the Marlins’ rankings and should be an impact corner guy in the show with a very good chance to hit in the middle of the order.

What’s there to say about Adam Dunn’s 2011 season that hasn’t already been said?  With an fWAR of -2.9 over 496 plate appearances, Dunn had one of the worst seasons in baseball history and recorded career lows in nearly every offensive category.  He finished the season with a triple slash line of .159/.292/.277, wRC+ of 59, .118 ISO, 27 extra-base hits, and a measly 42 RBI.

Along the way, the big man amassed three golden sombreros, putting him in a seven-way tie for first place in Major League Baseball.  He picked up his first on May 21 against the Dodgers and then followed it up with his second on May 26 against the Blue Jays.  The final sombrero came exactly a month later at the hands of the Washington Nationals.

Absolutely nothing went Dunn’s way in 2011; he hit like crap and was an utter disappointment in his first season with the White Sox.  There wasn’t a single moment where it seemed as though Dunn might turn the corner.  He never hit that dramatic walk-off bomb in front of a sold out home crowd or had a multi-home run game to rally the troops in his favor.

So what can be attributed to Dunn’s abysmal season? Well, his 35.7% strikeout rate is a good but obvious starting point.  In 415 at-bats this season, Dunn set a franchise record by fanning 177 times.  And although his penchant for striking out is as much of a defining trait as his longball potential, nothing pointed towards a complete offensive collapse.

In 2010, Dunn absolutely torched fastballs, as evidenced by a 32.1 wFB.  This past season, however, he posted a wFB of -8.5 (!), which is easily the worst of his storied career.  His inability to square up fastballs in turn damaged his approach at the plate, causing him to struggle mightily against offspeed pitches: -7.2 wSL (0.7 in 2010), -3.6 wCT (-2.5 in 2010), and -5.8 wCH (-3.9 in 2010) – all career lows.

Dunn also recorded a 57.8% O-Contact% (contact percentage on pitches thrown outside the strikezone), which, when supplemented by his 9.6% HR/FB rate, explains why he was seldom feared by opposing pitchers; they could comfortably attack him within the strikezone without the fear of 450-foot repercussions.

Here is Dunn’s ‘Swing Pitch Type’ chart from this past season:

While his selectiveness was decent—he did manage to coax 75 walks (15.1%)—Dunn simply was unable to consistently drive pitches within the strikezone, something that he’d never really struggled with.  Therefore, it comes as no surprise that Dunn failed to provoke an intentional walk all season for the first time in his 11-year career.

Yet, what Dunn’s season indicates, more than anything else, is a total lack of comfort and confidence at the dish – a realm of the game that cannot be quantified. Sure we can delve through endless statistics in search of some type of rationalization, but there is no true, metric-based explanation for why a player who averaged nearly 40 home runs and 100 RBI per season would suddenly hit his way out of a starting line up.

As any hitter will tell you, there’s nothing more detrimental to one’s performance than a waning level of confidence at the plate.  Once that confidence begins to waver, a hitter suddenly becomes susceptible to a slew of problems – some old, some new.  After scuffling through the first month of the season, Dunn never quite turned the corner as everyone expected he would, including himself.  Instead, his season spiraled out of control, as he absorbed the majority of the blame for the White Sox struggles, which in turn compounded his own personal issues.