With Whitney graduating from U of A a couple of weeks ago, I thought I should write up the ace of that staff, sophomore Kurt Heyer.  Heyer had a truly remarkable season as the Friday-nighter for Arizona posting a 2.41 ERA in 130.2 IP with 128 K’s and only 25 BB.  His numbers were stellar, and Heyer will be one of the top arms in the PAC-10 in 2012 as well.  Heyer has terrific sink on his fastball, which allowed him to keep the ball in the yard quite well despite the thin Tucson air.  He only allowed 5 homers and 25 XBH’s in his 19 2011 starts.

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It has been announced that Drayton McLane and Jim Crane have reached an agreement on the purchase of the (my) Houston Astros.  This sale brings closure to the end of an era that has seen the Astros reach the World Series, and then become the laughing stock of all MLB organizations. (Except maybe Pittsburgh…maybe.)  McLane took over the Astros in 1993.  While Drayton is leaving this franchise amidst one of it’s lowest points, he also gave Astros fans plenty to be thankful for.  While my view on things tends to lean towards the more cynical, I am always, always, always grateful for baseball and what baseball brings to my life.  So instead of focusing on where Drayton has left us, I want to thank him for what he brought us during his tenure as owner of the Houston Astros.

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Mark Twain is responsible for popularizing the Sir Charles Wentworth Dilke quote, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”  As someone who bases many of his opinions on statistics, I could not agree more.  I could take any player, along with any different combination of stats, and come up with two different opinions on that player.  Anyone who has ever manipulated statistics to benefit their own argument knows exactly what I am talking about.  But what about the other times, when you come to an opinion that has no logical basis other than you just feel it?  Deep down inside your gut you have an inkling, an instinct that something will happen.  There is no real rhyme or reason behind this belief.  Most of the time when you mention these beliefs to friends they call you crazy, or some synonym of loco.  The beauty of these types of beliefs is that when they become a reality, when you have used only your gut instinct to defy the laws of statistical analysis, it is a thing of beauty.  I can honestly say that there is no better feeling in the world.

When I was 11-years-old, living in Houston, I told anyone who would listen how the Rockets were going to win it all.  They defied all odds, coming back from a 2-0 deficit in the first round to defeat the Jazz, then coming back from a 3-1 deficit to eliminate the Suns, and finally sweeping Shaq and the Magic in the Finals to win it all; all while becoming the first team in NBA history to defeat four 50-win teams en route to winning an NBA title.  What does this have to do with the 2011 baseball season though?  At 11-years-old, I had no idea what statistics could be used for.  I knew nothing about backing up an opinion with logical information.  I was freaking 11-years-old!  But, somewhere deep down inside I knew, I just knew, that my Rockets were not going to lose a playoff series that year.  Maybe it was because they had the heart of a champion.  Maybe not.  Either way, I made a gut call about sports and it miraculously came to fruition.

Long story short, that premise is the central idea for this article.  In the upcoming weeks you will find a myriad of articles around the web talking about people’s bold predictions.  Most of these predictions have some sort of stat to back them up.  Not me.  I am here to give you some truly outlandish predictions that have no evidence to support them other than I “feel” like it will happen.  This is not about me trying to predict the future correctly.  This is about finding that 11-year-old inside of me who just believed.  This is about having some fun and enjoying letting my imagination run wild with the endless possibilities of what could happen in a baseball season that has yet to start.  So, without further ado, here are my outlandish, completely unwarranted, and instinct-based predictions for the 2011 Major League Baseball season.

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Plan the work, work the plan.  This is a mantra that I heard over and over again while pitching for the University of Arizona.  Thanks Coach Lopez.  It might be one of the best pieces of advice I have ever heard.  It transcends the baseball field and carries over in to the real-life sector as well.  Regardless, it was the first thing that came to my mind after reading fellow authors Justin Abramson and Dee Clark’s opposing pieces on hitting philosophy.  As a coach, I rely heavily on teaching my hitters to plan their work, and work their plan.  When it comes to hitting, I want them to plan on hitting the mistake.

As a former pitcher, I am quite familiar with what quality hitters do with mistake pitches.  They shit all over ‘em.  It never mattered if it was the first pitch or the 8th pitch of the at-bat either.  It only mattered that the pitch was not where it was supposed to be.  As a hitting coach, I now work to instill this idea in all of my hitters.  I preach, “Battle to the mistake.”  If I were to subscribe to Dee’s philosophy this might mean trying to work a 9 pitch sequence.  On the other hand, if I were to subscribe to Justin’s philosophy, this would mean that I should jump at the first fastball I see in the sequence.  While I tend to be more conservative in my plate approach (I was schooled by Dee in the ideas of plate approach) I still am very fond of seeing a good pitch early and jumping all over it.  Sometimes pitchers will attack the zone early with fastballs to get ahead, and this often times leads to a pitch finding itself traveling over too much of the white, or heart of the plate.  Other times, especially in later or more meaningful at-bats, a hitter may not see a mistake pitch until the 4th, 5th, or even 6th pitch of the AB.  If the latter is the case, the hitter must be disciplined enough to withstand the pitchers attack until the pitcher makes a mistake.

No matter when the mistake pitch is thrown, the hitter must have it in his mind to attack the mistake.  When dealing with high caliber baseball there is usually just one mistake pitch thrown per AB (if that.)  This means that if the hitter neglects to take a chance (swing) at the mistake, he will more than likely end up swinging at a pitcher’s pitch and have difficulty squaring up the baseball, thus leading to a probable out.  This is why it is so important to take advantage of the mistake, no matter when it occurs.  You can bet the farm that you will not get any second chances that AB.  I guess what I am trying to say is that as a hitting philosophy, I believe in hitting the mistake.  All pitchers make them, so why not try to hit the one pitch in the sequence that the pitcher wishes he could get back?  While the more pitches you see tends to give you a higher percentage chance of seeing a mistake, what happens if the mistake is that 0-1 CB that hangs in the zone?  You bang the damn thing.  Just ask Pujols, or Longoria, or any other high caliber hitter in Major League Baseball.  Taking advantages of mistakes trumps any other hitting approach.  So plan your work and work your plan, and battle to the mistake at the dish.  This mentality, or philosophy if you will, will give you the highest percentage opportunity for success.  I’ll put a Griffin Phelps guarantee on that one.  One love, I’m out.