#6 Julio Teheran

Atlanta Braves

DOB: 1/27/1991

Pre-2011 Rank: 13

ETA: 2011

Teheran is the kind of guy every team loves to see atop their prospect list.  Good build, athletic, aggressive, good makeup.  Teheran is all of these and more.  He features a four-pitch arsenal with his fastball, coming in anywhere from 94-97 mph, somehow not the best pitch he has.  He also features a double-plus changeup with tremendous fade and plane.

His mechanics are much cleaner now than they were at this time last year, and he should open the season in Atlanta.  He made five appearances for the big club in 2011 and was bad, but he was also 20, and the ceiling on a guy like Teheran barely exists.  The only thing holding him back right now is his breaking stuff.  His slider and curveball are both below-average offerings, and we personally think anyone with Teheran’s arm acceleration stands a better chance of learning to be aggressive out front with a slider than a curveball.  His Triple-A numbers are outstanding, posting a 2.55 ERA in 144.2 innings.  He struck out 122 and walked 48 and only allowed five Triple-A dingers all year.  He’s a stud and has really nothing left to prove on the farm.  We expect Teheran to challenge for the NL Rookie of the Year award and then for some Cy Young’s in a few years.

#7 Anthony Rendon

Washington Nationals

DOB: 6/6/1990

Pre-2011 Rank: N/A

ETA: 2013

Rendon was our top guy going into the 2011 draft, injured or not.  This kind of bat is not common.  It might be draftable every five years or so, and it very rarely if ever can play a premium defensive position, let alone play it well.  Yeah, Anthony Rendon is a tremendously valuable prospect for the Nationals and should challenge for MVP votes as early as 2014.

When healthy he is a double-plus hit tool player, with plus present power with a chance at a 70 in that category too.  He has a plus eye, a plus glove, and a plus arm.  His speed is behind the other tools, but it is good enough for 2B if Washington decides to go with him there.  If that happens, then the club is looking at an infield of Ryan Zimmerman, Danny Espinosa, Rendon, and Mike Morse with Wilson Ramos behind the dish – every single guy on the dirt has a chance to make the NL All-Star squad.

Rendon signed late, so he has no professional statistics to assess, but we’d be surprised if he doesn’t go straight to Double-A and join Bryce Harper in the middle of the order for Harrisburg in the Eastern League.  We don’t see any reason that Rendon can’t force his way into Washington before the 2012 season is over.  Because he has such terrific makeup, adapting to professional baseball should be quite easy for him.  We expect Rendon to play a decade of excellent professional baseball with a chance to make the All-Star team every single season.  Aside from Bryce Harper, he is the top position prospect in the game.

#8 Trevor Bauer

Arizona Diamondbacks

DOB: 1/17/1991

Previous Rank: N/A

ETA: 2012

The Sombrero considered Trevor Bauer the No. 3 prospect going into the 2011 draft, exactly where he was selected.  Granted, we had Rendon at No. 1 and Bundy at No. 2, and both were selected after Bauer, but we still anticipated Bauer being both the easiest and cheapest sign of the truly elite prospects in 2011 class.

Bauer struggled upon his call-up to Double-A, but he was severely overworked at UCLA, and Towers made the correct move to shut him down rather than including him on the NLDS roster – although he could have helped.  After earning the Golden Spikes and setting numerous records at UCLA, Bauer signed an incentive-laden deal worth as much as $7 million, but with only $4.45 guaranteed.  The contract was genius, and in a year or two will certainly look like a bargain for the D-Backs.

Bauer features some of the most unconventional pitching mechanics in the game, but he has always been tested as far as pitch counts go and has never really been injured.  We at The Sombrero are onboard in terms of challenging tradition so long as whatever challenges they may be can hold up against the empirical scrutiny of the game.

He features a fastball that can reach 98 mph, a boulder of a curveball that receives consistent 70s and the occasional 80, a plus slider and changeup, and a solid splitter.  Bauer is a tremendous athlete that has constantly overcome his lack of physicality.  He trains incredibly hard and truly knows what it means to compete.  Trevor Bauer should win a Cy Young Award or two for Arizona and represents everything that a young pitcher should desire to be.

#9 Manny Machado

Baltimore Orioles

DOB: 7/6/1992

Previous Rank: 23

ETA: 2014

Machado is the top middle infield prospect in the Minors today, unless we are counting Anthony Rendon.  The Florida-native failed at the plate upon a promotion to the Carolina League, but he torched the Sally League, posting an .859 OPS and walking nearly as many times as he struck out.  His posted a slash line of .245/.308/.384 on the year, went deep 11 times, and stole 11 bases, but needs to make more consistent contact as well as develop some discipline in the box.

Machado has elite tools and no real weaknesses, and should develop into one of the truly special shortstops in the game.  Scouts see him as a plus-hit/plus-power offensive player with enough range and more than enough arm for short.  His hands are not consistent in the field and his footwork can get sloppy, but a teenager at short in the Carolina League is given the benefit of the doubt every time.  If he is forced to shift positions, which we are skeptical of (at least for the rest of this decade), he will have plenty of bat to stick at third.  Machado is as toolsy as they come, and when he grows into his 6-foot-3 frame a bit, he will light up whatever league he finds himself in.

#11 Danny Hultzen

Seattle Mariners

DOB: 11/28/1989

Previous Rank: N/A

ETA: 2012

Hultzen is the best pitcher in the history of the Virginia Cavaliers and was drafted second overall in the 2011 draft in what will go down as the deepest draft in history as far as collegiate pitching goes.  His first taste of professional baseball came in the form of six starts in the Arizona Fall League.  He gave up three runs in around 20 innings, striking out nearly a guy an inning and walking five.  The small sample really tells us nothing new and hardly confirms anything we already supposed.

Regardless, Hultzen should break camp with the Mariners out of Spring Training, and we see no reason to expect him not to succeed immediately.  His 6-foot-3 frame is athletic, and his mechanics are repeatable, although not textbook.  He is a bit of an across-the-body thrower with some wrap in the back, but there is nothing in his delivery that screams injury to us.  He has a fastball that can reach 97 mph as well as an above-average to plus changeup with good fade and excellent command.

His breaking pitch improved greatly in the last season and, while it was not nearly as sharp during the NCAA season, looked like a solid average pitch in the AFL.  His command with all three is above-average, and in a yard like Safeco, Hultzen should make several All-Star teams and have a very solid and lengthy career.