#4 Shelby Miller

St. Louis Cardinals

DOB: 10/10/1990

Previous Rank: 16

ETA: 2012

Aside from a team-issued suspension for being an idiot, Shelby Miller had an outstanding 2011 that only served to reinforce his spot as the top righty in the Minor Leagues.  He posted a 2.77 ERA in 25 starts across two levels including his final stop in Springfield where he collected 16 Double-A starts as a 20-year-old.  Yikes!  The kid struck out 170 guys on the season next to only 53 walks in just under 140 IP.  Again, Yikes!

Miller is special.

His fastball has tremendous sink and arm-side ride to go along with 94-97 mph of pace.  His changeup and curveball already get 50s, but they still have room to grow.  His breaker is tight with quality shape, but it is not consistent yet.  The changeup is ahead of the bender, and it features excellent fade that should allow him to neutralize lefties in the Bigs as he already has shown he can do on the farm.  Miller should open the year in Triple-A with the singular goal of developing his secondary stuff.  Should he prove to accomplish this early on in 2012, we see no reason for the Cardinals not to push for his promotion.

Miller is elite and, with a 6-foot-3 and projectable build as well as aggressive and competitive makeup, should steamroll his way to Busch and challenge for the ace role there immediately.  We expect Miller to annually receive CY votes.

#6 Julio Teheran

Atlanta Braves

DOB: 1/27/1991

Pre-2011 Rank: 13

ETA: 2011

Teheran is the kind of guy every team loves to see atop their prospect list.  Good build, athletic, aggressive, good makeup.  Teheran is all of these and more.  He features a four-pitch arsenal with his fastball, coming in anywhere from 94-97 mph, somehow not the best pitch he has.  He also features a double-plus changeup with tremendous fade and plane.

His mechanics are much cleaner now than they were at this time last year, and he should open the season in Atlanta.  He made five appearances for the big club in 2011 and was bad, but he was also 20, and the ceiling on a guy like Teheran barely exists.  The only thing holding him back right now is his breaking stuff.  His slider and curveball are both below-average offerings, and we personally think anyone with Teheran’s arm acceleration stands a better chance of learning to be aggressive out front with a slider than a curveball.  His Triple-A numbers are outstanding, posting a 2.55 ERA in 144.2 innings.  He struck out 122 and walked 48 and only allowed five Triple-A dingers all year.  He’s a stud and has really nothing left to prove on the farm.  We expect Teheran to challenge for the NL Rookie of the Year award and then for some Cy Young’s in a few years.

#12 Jameson Taillon

Pittsburgh Pirates

DOB: 11/18/1991

Previous Rank: 14

ETA: 2014

The Pirates insist on babying Taillon, who some thought actually was the top player available in the 2010 draft even ahead of Bryce Harper.  Regardless of who was better, what is certain is that Taillon was the best pitching prospect in his class, so some restraint is probably highly prudent and highly warranted.

His fastball and breaking ball are both at least 60-grades every night and can reach 70s.  His breaking ball is arguably the best pitch from any of the last five drafts, and his fastball can reach the upper-90s with good plane and arm-side activity.  His command can stand to improve, but it already has substantially since he signed.

Even though he never made it past the fifth inning of any start, he still was able to post a sub-4.00 ERA with 97 strikeouts and 22 walks in 92.0 innings.  Look for that count to jump up to the 125 IP area in 2012 and for Taillon to dominate Double-A hitters like he did Sally League hitters.  Taillon is so advanced in terms of stuff that he should never be challenged while in the Minors by anyone or anything except his own standards and the standards of his organization, which is quickly on the rise.

#14 Jacob Turner

Detroit Tigers

DOB: 5/21/1991

Previous Rank: 19

ETA: 2012

Spending most of his 2011 season in the Eastern League, Turner became the first prep pitcher from the 2009 draft to debut in the Big Leagues.  He’s 6-foot-5 and 210-pounds and has solid mechanics that produce good downward plane on his pitches.

His fastball reaches the mid-90s, but he pitches a couple ticks below that in the 91-93 mph range typically.  His curveball and changeup have the potential to be 55-60s, but need to come up some in terms of consistency.  In Double-A, Turner posted a 3.48 ERA in 113.2 innings while striking out 90 guys and walking 32.  Turner also had three stellar Triple-A starts and three disastrous Big League starts that he was rushed into.  Nevertheless, Turner should begin the season back in Triple-A with a good chance of a recall after several quality starts in the International League.

The upside with Turner is lower than each of the next guys we will release on this list and is even lower than several of the guys we’ve already ranked, but he’s already debuted, is only 20, and has size and athleticism as well as polish far beyond his years.  He’s about as sure a bet as there is in the game to stick around a rotation for a decade.

#35 Carlos Martinez

St. Louis Cardinals

DOB: 9/21/1991

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2014

The Cardinals have a very solid system, and starting pitching is probably where it shines the brightest.  As a 19-year-old across two stops including 10 starts in the FSL, Martinez finished the year with a sub-4.00 ERA and 98 strikeouts in only 84.2 innings pitched.  He also managed to hand out 44 free passes, but there is always reason to be optimistic about a 19-year-old with that kind of strikeout ability.

Martinez throws blazing hard, hitting triple digits on occasion and sitting in the mid- to high-90s.  He is only 6-foot and 165-pounds, but there actually might be an inch or two left in him if his Dominican birth certificate is accurate.  Martinez secondary stuff has a ways to go, but at times he flashes 60s with both his change and breaker.  The changeup has a little fade to it, and the breaking ball is the downer type with good pace and shape.  He slows his arm a lot at times with both offerings, and both flatten out when he does, but the Cardinals are magicians when it comes to young righties and their secondary stuff.

Considering that Martinez only will only need to fill the role of a third starter in St. Louis given the presence of Adam Wainwright already atop the rotation and Shelby Miller knocking at the Busch gates, the St. Louis pitching staff should be elite for much of the decade.  If his command can improve during the next couple of years, Martinez could find himself within the top-10 here at The Sombrero as early as 2013.