May 24, 2010
Can owner Mike Rosenbaum and his 1st place fantasy team, The Nads, keep it up? Dirty jokes aside, what is their prognosis for the rest of the season? Reminiscent of Andrew Colver’s team 2 years ago, the Nads sport a 20+ point lead going into June. So are The Nads really this good, or is it the result of early season good fortune? Let’s take a look.
Here is how the current lineup looks:
C – G. Soto
1B – J. Votto
2B – R. Weeks
3B – R. Zimmerman
SS – I. Desmond/A. Ramirez/S. Castro
OF – R. Braun
OF – S. Choo
OF – B. Boesch
UTIL – A. Laroche
And here is the pitching staff:
P – J. Johnson
P – J. Weaver
P – J. Danks
P – J. Papelbon
P – M. Capps
P – E. Meeks
P – J. Benoit
P – J. Ely
Why they won’t:
Rickie Weeks has surprised everyone this season by producing, but most importantly by staying healthy. Weeks’ injury history is longer than an encyclopedia and he’s starting to fade. In his last 30 games he is .207/.278/.289 with only 2HRs/2SBs. Since his hot start pitchers have begun to adjust and he hasn’t. Adam Laroche is off to an incredible yet unsustainable start. In his last 30 games he’s hitting .284/.384/.632 with 7 jacks making him a sell high candidate. Also, Boesch is a good short-term option who’s murdering the ball right now, but he will probably be droppable after the break. Lastly, Jered Weaver and John Danks are pitching well right now, but they are hardly fantasy studs.
Why they will:
Six reasons: Soto, Votto, Zimmerman, Braun, Choo, and Johnson. The 5 hitters are absolute studs, especially in the Denslow Cup, which favors hitters who post high OPS’s. These 5 guys are all able to post +.850 OPS’s and are even capable of .900. All of them are hitting in the top 5 spots in their order (Soto not always), which should provide them with ample RBI/R opportunities. Moreover, all of them are having relatively sustainable starts by posting BABIP’s within their career range. Josh Johnson is pitching like an ace, and in his last 5 starts(not including Sunday’s start vs. White Sox) he is 3-0 with a 1.80/0.69/5.86 (ERA/WHIP/K-BB) line, which is absolutely disgusting.
Conclusions:
Barring any major injuries, the Nads will finish in the top 3 for sure. The offense and defense is grounded in sustainable production that is just as good as it is consistent. However, their chances of repeating a Colver-esque style championship by completely dominating are low, unless The Nads make a couple of major trades. The biggest things to address will be long-term solutions at 2B, SS, and one of the OF position while solving their lack of potential SB’s. They will also need to address the pitching at some point if they want to maintain their current 1st\- 2nd ranking in ERA/WHIP/K-BB, which will be impossible with Danks/Weaver in the back-end of the rotation. But right now, it looks as if owner Mike Rosenbaum should be able to repeat a top-3 finish in the incredibly competitive Denslow Cup.
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