#44 Sonny Gray

Oakland Athletics

DOB: 11/7/1989

Previous Rank: N/A

ETA: 2013

Sonny Gray receives constant knocks for being undersized, having a high-effort delivery, and lacking an average or above third pitch. We at The Sombrero have never shied away from guys with sound yet high-energy deliveries. In fact, in some cases we prefer them. Gray is one of those cases.

He is extremely athletic and has never given anyone reason to fear injury beyond the fact that he is small-bodied and very explosive. His breaking ball was the best one in the 2011 draft class, even at only 5-foot-11. His fastball can reach 97 mph, and he sits at 93-95 mph most starts. His fastball, like most short righties, has phenomenal carry and explodes through the strike zone.

Gray reached Double-A by his second professional start and only allowed a single run in 20 innings. His peripherals were solid despite being low in quantity (18 strikeouts vs. 6 walks). Gray was one of the best pitchers in the history of Vanderbilt, and, while many scouts see a reliever or mid-rotation starter, we see two 60 pitches with a chance at a 50 third pitch, a fast mover, and ace potential. The only obstacles to overcome are public opinion and minor command issues. The Bay Area has been pretty accepting of small-bodied righties with explosive fastballs and hammer benders recently, so we think Gray will be able to solve at least one of these issues fairly easily.

#50 Francisco Lindor

Cleveland Indians

Previous Rank: N/A

DOB: November 14, 1993

ETA: 2015

As the first guy off the board in this year’s Sombrero Top 50, Francisco Lindor, the 8^th overall selection from the 2011 draft just squeezed in.  The main knock on him and why he isn’t a little higher is the fact that he signed late and collected less than 20 at-bats as a professional in 2011.  His place among the Top 50 is based solely on who he was as an amateur; he is young (still just 17), was without a doubt the best up-the-middle player in his draft class, and grew up in a phenomenal baseball environment after immigrating to Florida from Puerto Rico.

He has across-the-board tools with a chance to be at least a 50 in each of the five traditional areas and very little downside.  He is listed at 5-foot-11 and 175-pounds, but probably has an inch or two left to grow and should approach 200-pounds by the time he gets makes his big-league debut.  His power tool blossomed a lot during his senior year at Montverde, but still is what scouts like to call in the “doubles” or “gap” range.

Whatever you want to call it, Lindor is a guy with easy athleticism who has a chance to be an impact bat at the toughest position, and has age on his side.  He should rise quickly and may realistically be on a 25-man by his 20^th birthday.

Currently ripping through Minor League hitters, Trevor Bauer is on the fast track to the Show.  The best pitcher in college baseball in 2011, Bauer features three plus pitches (fastball, curve and changeup) and possesses the ability to work deep into games.  The third-overall selection by the Arizona Diamondbacks, Bauer fanned 17 hitters and allowed just seven hits over nine innings at High-A Visalia before he was promoted to Double-A Mobile.  There it has been more of the same: two starts, eight hits and 17 strikeouts in 10 innings.  With the mechanics, repertoire and competitiveness that draw comparisons to Tim Lincecum, Kevin Goldstein wonders if Bauer is “The Next Freak?” (*Baseball Prospectus subscription required)

Considering that Bauer was considering the most Big-League-ready pitcher in this year’s draft, and given his rapid ascent through the Minors, many baseball writers and scouts believe that the right-hander is poised for a September call-up.  Over at Fangraphs, Jack Moore argues that Bauer can make an immediate impact and that the Diamondbacks should call him up.

In a recent installment of “9 Innings,” Greg Schaum of Pine Tar Press sat down with Royals’ pitching prospect Jake Odorizzi to pick his brain.  Odorizzi discusses the adjustments he’s had to make between levels, emotions associated with being traded, and his workout routine in the off-season and between starts.

My favorite MiLB writer, John Sickels, continued to review his pre-season Top 20 organizational prospects by reflecting on the White Sox farm system.  Suffice it to say, my favorite team’s system is depleted and pretty unimpressive.

Speaking of the White Sox, with Carlos Quentin’s shoulder injury—not to mention his inability to play with even the slightest amount of pain—Larry from South Side Sox writes that “It’s Still Time for Viciedo,” who, in my opinion, should have been recalled well over a month ago.

One of the most intriguing prospects in this year’s MLB Draft is Brandon Nimmo, who was selected by the Mets in the 13^th-round to become the first-ever first-round selection out of Wyoming.  Coming from a high school that lacked a baseball team, Nimmo established himself as a top-prospect thanks to a remarkable season for his American Legion team.  With a projectable frame and great, raw athleticism, Mets 360 wonders if Nimmo is the next Josh Hamilton.

*Golden Sombrero update: On Monday night, Nimmo fanned in all four at-bats and is now 3-for-15 (all singles) in his budding, professional career.

Gerrit Cole: This is a tougher call than one might expect, as Jameson Taillon is also a power righty in Pittsburgh’s system that arguably had the finest pitch of his draft class too.  Cole’s fastball is bigger and he is more polished than Taillon and probably closer to the Show.

Danny Hultzen: Hultzen is not really competing against anyone here and was the most polished guy in the ’11 class with excellent command and secondary stuff to go with a plus fastball from the left side.

Trevor Bauer: This is another tough one to call because he probably does not have the limitless projection that Archie Bradley possesses.  Nevertheless, he will arrive very quickly and will succeed from the second he shows up.  He has the unshakable poise that will allow him to immediately adapt to the Major League environment.

Dylan Bundy: Manny Machado is awesome and quite clearly the top infield prospect today, but Bundy would have been my first overall selection if I was Pittsburgh.  I personally believe that no other high school pitcher in history has been on the same level as Dylan Bundy.

Bubba Starling: Starling might take a little while to get there, but his tools are without rival in the Royals’ system and quite possibly the Minors today.  He needs time and patience from the organization because he is not remotely close to a finished product.  KC must remember that this is a good thing.

Francisco Lindor: The Tribe dismantled their system to get Ubaldo, so this is a no-brainer.  Nevertheless, Lindor has tremendous upside and tools.  I was not as high on him as many, but I think I am a little slow to accept the fact that the SS landscape is far from what it once was.  The way prospects are evaluated must adapt with the Major League landscape, and I personally have a difficult time assessing premium positions like SS.

George Springer: He has tools to drool over but lacks zone judgment and has his share of mechanical flaws.  I think he will take longer than other guys who were available, but this was far from the typical botched Houston pick.

Taylor Jungmann: Milwaukee made the smart pick here by going with the polished big-conference collegiate superstar.  Jungmann is already close and should arrive quickly.  After blowing the system up over the winter, this was the kind of draft they needed in Milwaukee as they collected two high profile collegiate aces in Jungmann and Jed Bradley.

Matt Barnes: Oh what it must be like to be the Red Sox during a draft like this.  With unlimited funds they were able to take 3 guys I had in the top 20 in Barnes, Blake Swihart, and Jackie Bradley Jr., and Henry Owens who I had immediately outside of it.  Their top guy prior to this week was Will Middlebrooks, and I just don’t see the same kind of upside in him that I do in Barnes.  Barnes certainly needs to improve his secondary stuff as well as command of all of his pitches, but he can work at 95 mph for 70 pitches and is very comfortable throwing in the cold New England air.  Oh, and I see him as a starter.  Duh.

Other teams that totally killed the draft were Washington and Tampa who have the Minor Leagues’ best hitting and pitching prospects respectively.  It should be noted that no one drafted this year would land in front of Bryce Harper or Matt Moore in any ranking of mine.

Taylor Jungmann is currently 10-0 with a 0.90 ERA and a 5.79 K:BB in nearly 90 innings.  He features a fastball that sits in the low-90s that can reach above 95 mph when he needs/wants it.  His breaking ball is borderline-knockout currently, with a chance to pick up a little pace.  It currently is thrown in the high-70s with excellent depth and break in two planes.  His changeup grades as solid average to plus as well, although he doesn’t use it as often.  It is thrown in the 84-86 mph range with decent fade, though.  Most importantly, Jungmann commands all three pitches very well to both sides of the plate and has an athletic 6-foot-6, 220-pound frame that obviously projects.

(more…)