December | 2011 | The Golden Sombrero Baseball Blog | MLB, Fantasy, College & High School Baseball News

Articles from December 2011



Top 50 Prospects: #21 – Nolan Arenado

#25 Nolan Arenado

Colorado Rockies

DOB: 4/16/1991

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2013

Arenado was recently named MVP of the Arizona Fall League after slashing .388/.423/.636 with six jacks in 121 at-bats.  In the California League as a 20-year-old, Arenado posted a .298/.349/.487 line with 20 home runs and 32 doubles as well as nearly as many walks as strikeouts.  We expect Arenado to open the year in Double-A, and debut some time in Denver in 2013.

Arenado’s defense has been under scrutiny since he was an amateur, but he cut some weight last winter and improved his mobility in the process, silencing some doubters.  I am not convinced that he can be average at the hot corner yet, but he is definitely good enough to play at least a few seasons there before sliding to first.  His bat plays anywhere and has room to improve in the power category as well.  His speed is not even close to average, but it never has to be.

Year Age Tm Lg Lev G PA AB R 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA
2009 18 Casper PION Rk 54 225 203 28 15 0 2 22 5 2 .300
2010 19 Asheville SALL A 92 400 373 45 41 1 12 65 1 3 .308
2011 20 Modesto CALL A+ 134 583 517 82 32 3 20 122 2 1 .298
3 Seasons 280 1208 1093 155 88 4 34 209 8 6 .302
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/23/2011.
Year Age Tm Lg Lev G PA AB HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2009 18 Casper PION Rk 54 225 203 2 22 16 18 .300 .351 .404 .755 82
2010 19 Asheville SALL A 92 400 373 12 65 19 52 .308 .338 .520 .858 194
2011 20 Modesto CALL A+ 134 583 517 20 122 47 53 .298 .349 .487 .836 252
3 Seasons 280 1208 1093 34 209 82 123 .302 .346 .483 .829 528
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/23/2011.
Year Age Tm Lg Lev G Ch PO A E DP Fld% RF/G
2009 18 Casper PION Rk 3B 49 139 33 92 14 9 .899 2.55
2010 19 Asheville SALL A 3B 81 235 86 134 15 17 .936 2.72
2011 20 Modesto CALL A+ 3B 131 318 85 215 18 25 .943 2.29
3 Seasons 261 692 204 441 47 51 .932 2.47
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/23/2011.

Arenado is as exciting an infield prospect as exists in the game today, and he should make several all-star teams before he is done leaving his stamp on the NL West.

Top 50 Prospects: #22 – Drew Pomeranz

#22 Drew Pomeranz

Colorado Rockies

DOB: 11/22/1988

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2012

Pomeranz was the centerpiece of the deal that brought Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland, and we at The Sombrero thought the move was a win for the Rox in large part due to Pomeranz’ stuff and projectability.  Unfortunately, Colorado rushed him up to make four starts late in the year after 20 across three Minor League stops and none above Double-A.

He wasn’t awful in his Big League starts, but he did post an ERA above 5.00 with below average command and no real ability to miss bats.  However, he will only be 23 in 2012 and should return to the Colorado rotation with something to prove and a strong Minor League career to call on for a confidence boost.  The 6-foot-5 lefty fanned 119 Minor League batters in 2011 with only 38 walks and an sub-2.00 ERA in just over 100 innings.  Despite lacking any Triple-A experience, we don’t really think he has anything to prove in the Minors, and he certainly has enough in his plus fastball and double-plus curve to learn the intricacies of his changeup on the fly at the Major League level.

Year Age Tm Lg W L ERA G GS IP BB SO
2011 22 CLE-COL-min A+,AA 4 3 1.78 20 20 101.0 38 119 KIN,AKR,TUL · CARL,EL,TL
2011 22 COL NL 2 1 5.40 4 4 18.1 5 13
1 Season 2 1 5.40 4 4 18.1 5 13
162 Game Avg. 17 9 5.40 34 34 156 43 111
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/20/2011.
Year Age Tm Lg W L ERA IP ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2011 22 CLE-COL-min A+,AA 4 3 1.78 101.0 1.050 6.1 0.3 3.4 10.6 3.13 KIN,AKR,TUL · CARL,EL,TL
2011 22 COL NL 2 1 5.40 18.1 84 1.309 9.3 0.0 2.5 6.4 2.60
1 Season 2 1 5.40 18.1 84 1.309 9.3 0.0 2.5 6.4 2.60
162 Game Avg. 17 9 5.40 156 84 1.309 9.3 0.0 2.5 6.4 2.60
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/20/2011.

It could be Pomeranz’ third plus or better offering, but it never really has to be.  Pomeranz was the top collegiate arm in his draft class (2010) coming out of Mississippi, and his frame, stuff, and handedness all suggest that he will be front line in Colorado for years.


MLB Look-alikes: Ryan Spilborghs and Jason Lee

The Golden Sombrero presents MLB Look-alikes: Ryan Spilborghs and Jason Lee

One of these two is not a Scientologist

Top 50 Prospects: #23 – Martin Perez

#23 Martin Perez

Texas Rangers

DOB: 4/4/1991

Previous Rank: 28

ETA: 2012

Perez finally threw up the stats to back up his enormous potential…and then plummeted back to earth after a promotion to Triple-A.  As one of the top pitchers in the Texas League and quite likely the top lefty, Perez posted a 3.16 ERA in 88.1 innings with 83 strikeouts compared to 36 walks.  While that is far too many walks, those numbers were still way better than any we’d seen thus far from Perez.   He then proceeded to put up a 6.83 ERA with – who really cares what the rest of his numbers were like after giving up that many runs?

Year Age Tm Lg Lev W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP BB SO
2008 17 Spokane NORW A- 1 2 3.65 15 15 0 0 61.2 28 53
2009 18 2 Teams 2 Lgs A-AA 6 8 2.90 27 19 0 0 114.2 38 119
2009 18 Hickory SALL A 5 5 2.31 22 14 0 0 93.2 33 105
2009 18 Frisco TL AA 1 3 5.57 5 5 0 0 21.0 5 14
2010 19 Frisco TL AA 5 8 5.96 24 23 0 0 99.2 50 101
2011 20 2 Teams 2 Lgs AA-AAA 8 6 4.33 27 26 1 1 137.1 56 120
2011 20 Frisco TL AA 4 2 3.16 17 16 1 1 88.1 36 83
2011 20 Round Rock PCL AAA 4 4 6.43 10 10 0 0 49.0 20 37
4 Seasons 20 24 4.22 93 83 1 1 413.1 172 393
AA (3 seasons) AA 10 13 4.74 46 44 1 1 209.0 91 198
A (1 season) A 5 5 2.31 22 14 0 0 93.2 33 105
A- (1 season) A- 1 2 3.65 15 15 0 0 61.2 28 53
AAA (1 season) AAA 4 4 6.43 10 10 0 0 49.0 20 37
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/19/2011.
Year Age Tm Lg Lev W L ERA IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2008 17 Spokane NORW A- 1 2 3.65 61.2 1.524 9.6 0.4 4.1 7.7 1.89
2009 18 2 Teams 2 Lgs A-AA 6 8 2.90 114.2 1.299 8.7 0.4 3.0 9.3 3.13
2009 18 Hickory SALL A 5 5 2.31 93.2 1.228 7.9 0.3 3.2 10.1 3.18
2009 18 Frisco TL AA 1 3 5.57 21.0 1.619 12.4 0.9 2.1 6.0 2.80
2010 19 Frisco TL AA 5 8 5.96 99.2 1.676 10.6 1.1 4.5 9.1 2.02
2011 20 2 Teams 2 Lgs AA-AAA 8 6 4.33 137.1 1.515 10.0 0.7 3.7 7.9 2.14
2011 20 Frisco TL AA 4 2 3.16 88.1 1.313 8.2 0.6 3.7 8.5 2.31
2011 20 Round Rock PCL AAA 4 4 6.43 49.0 1.878 13.2 0.7 3.7 6.8 1.85
4 Seasons 20 24 4.22 413.1 1.495 9.7 0.7 3.7 8.6 2.28
AA (3 seasons) AA 10 13 4.74 209.0 1.517 9.7 0.9 3.9 8.5 2.18
A (1 season) A 5 5 2.31 93.2 1.228 7.9 0.3 3.2 10.1 3.18
A- (1 season) A- 1 2 3.65 61.2 1.524 9.6 0.4 4.1 7.7 1.89
AAA (1 season) AAA 4 4 6.43 49.0 1.878 13.2 0.7 3.7 6.8 1.85
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/19/2011.

Perez has pretty rocky fastball command for a prospect getting this kind of ranking, but his stuff is just too good to rank him any lower.  His fastball reaches the mid-90s, and he has arguably the finest breaking pitch in the Minors in the form of a heavy downer curveball.  It can flash double and triple-plus when it is on and in the zone, and we, like many, are very reluctant to slap an 80 on anything that isn’t a 100 mph heater or a 3.8 sec. to first.  He has a solid to plus changeup as well that shows quality fade and should be plenty to handle righties effectively.

Perez has elite stuff, and with more than a full season in the high Minors under his belt at just 20-years of age, could be a top of the rotation arm.  Reaching that level will require improved fastball command and a more consistent delivery, although the latter is greatly improved relative to what it was as a teenager.  We see a lot of Gio Gonzalez in Perez, and like Gio, Perez could be both an All-Star in the Show and excellent trade bait.

Top 50 Prospects: #24 – Josh Bell

#24 Josh Bell

Pittsburgh Pirates

DOB: 8/14/1992

Previous Rank: N/A

ETA: 2014

How is it that no one in the first round went after this guy?  It’s no secret for readers of The Sombrero that we were all in on Bell for whatever the cost.  It must have killed the Red Sox and any other team without a budget to see Pittsburgh get this kid signed.

Without a doubt Bell was the premier prep bat in the 2011 draft class, and the assumption was that Bell was unsignable regardless of the size of the bonus.  Wrong.  The Pirates got it done for $5 million, and as we learned last week what dramatic effects the new CBA will bring to the draft, that number is looking pretty damn tame.  Bell likely would be one of the first guys off of the board if not the first in three years, and the slot recommendation for the top pick is around $7.5 million and likely climbing.

Bell is a 60 hitter from both sides with a 60 future power grading.  His defense in the outfield is better than people gave him credit for prior to the draft, and it should improve as he matures to the point that he is at least average in left if not a 55.  We expect the Pirates to start Bell out in Easy A and to be patient with him, but bats like his are rare.  Look for the Bucs to push Bell through as fast as they can to ensure that he reaches PNC before Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen begin to decline and as Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole are reaching their primes.

The Pirates system is not making quite as much noise as Washington’s due in large part to the fact that Bryce Harper is in the latter, but they are just about as stellar at the top and might even be deeper.  Bell is without a doubt the top bat in the Pirates organization and could challenge for a top 10 ranking in 2012.