Articles from November 2011
Prospect Buzz: Montero, Goldschmidt, Hosmer, Wheeler, and Trout
As usual, the Flagrant Fan continues to churn out impressive work. One of my daily must-read sites, the Fan also does a great job maintaining order as the President of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance’s General Chapter. Yesterday he wrote about the Yankees’ catching situation and how Jesus Montero’s bat needs to be in the everyday lineup in 2012. And you know what? I couldn’t agree with the Fan more.
Mike Newman of Scouting the Sally and FanGraphs explores Bill James’s 2012 projections for Paul Goldschmidt—a player Newman’s personally scouted—and more specifically, his .382 wOBA, which would place him in elite company. Keep your eyes peeled for an upcoming Q&A with Mike, who has scouted many of baseball’s most exciting prospects in the Sally.
Also at FanGraphs, you can read a Q&A with Eric Hosmer in which he thoroughly discusses his swing and overall approach to hitting. (Sometimes I have to resist the urge to post links to every FanGraphs article; what an absolutely phenomenal site.
As we gradually unveil our Post-2011 Top 50 Prospects, I’d like to draw attention to Seedlings to Stars, who are also in the midst of their own prospect countdown. However, their Top 100 is a bit more ambitious and really well done. Just today we named Zack Wheeler as our No. 41 prospect, while at S2S, he was just ranked No. 51. I’m excited to see how our Top 50 rankings compare.
One of my colleagues and good buddies MJ Lloyd—a fellow staff writer at Tomahawk Take and a newly appointed staff writer at Halo Hangout—shares his thoughts on Mike Trout’s loss of rookie status for 2012. As he contends, it really doesn’t matter. Trout will be an impact player whether he’s considered a rookie or not.
Top 50 Prospects: #41 – Zack Wheeler
#41 Zack Wheeler
New York Mets
DOB: 5/30/1990
Previous Rank: N/R
ETA: 2014
Wheeler was traded straight up for Carlos Beltran in July and was sent immediately to High Class A St. Lucie where he posted a 2.00 ERA with a 31:5 K:BB ratio in 27 innings. Those numbers were considerably better than those from the 88 innings he threw in the California League before the trade. Nevertheless, Wheeler immediately became the top prospect in the Mets organization, and at just 21 years of age, he should be in the rotation at Citi by 2014.
Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | Aff | W | L | G | GS | IP | BB | SO | HBP | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 | 20 | Augusta | SALL | A | SFG | 3 | 3 | 3.99 | 21 | 13 | 58.2 | 38 | 70 | 7 |
2011 | 21 | 2 Teams | 2 Lgs | A+ | SFG,NYM | 9 | 7 | 3.52 | 22 | 22 | 115.0 | 52 | 129 | 6 |
2011 | 21 | San Jose | CALL | A+ | SFG | 7 | 5 | 3.99 | 16 | 16 | 88.0 | 47 | 98 | 4 |
2011 | 21 | St. Lucie | FLOR | A+ | NYM | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | 6 | 6 | 27.0 | 5 | 31 | 2 |
2 Seasons | 12 | 10 | 3.68 | 43 | 35 | 173.2 | 90 | 199 | 13 | |||||
A+ (1 season) | A+ | 9 | 7 | 3.52 | 22 | 22 | 115.0 | 52 | 129 | 6 | ||||
A (1 season) | A | 3 | 3 | 3.99 | 21 | 13 | 58.2 | 38 | 70 | 7 |
Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | Aff | W | L | IP | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 | 20 | Augusta | SALL | A | SFG | 3 | 3 | 3.99 | 58.2 | 1.449 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 1.84 |
2011 | 21 | 2 Teams | 2 Lgs | A+ | SFG,NYM | 9 | 7 | 3.52 | 115.0 | 1.322 | 7.8 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 10.1 | 2.48 |
2011 | 21 | San Jose | CALL | A+ | SFG | 7 | 5 | 3.99 | 88.0 | 1.375 | 7.6 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 10.0 | 2.09 |
2011 | 21 | St. Lucie | FLOR | A+ | NYM | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | 27.0 | 1.148 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 10.3 | 6.20 |
2 Seasons | 12 | 10 | 3.68 | 173.2 | 1.365 | 7.6 | 0.4 | 4.7 | 10.3 | 2.21 | |||||
A+ (1 season) | A+ | 9 | 7 | 3.52 | 115.0 | 1.322 | 7.8 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 10.1 | 2.48 | ||||
A (1 season) | A | 3 | 3 | 3.99 | 58.2 | 1.449 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 1.84 |
Wheeler features a fastball that sits consistently around 94-95 mph with the ability to reach back for 97 mph. His best secondary pitch is a true 60 curveball with good 12-6 shape and about 15 mph off of the heater. His third pitch is a changeup that is far behind the other two pitches at this point due primarily to an inability to maintain arm speed or slot. The pitch has arm side life with sink, though, and has a chance to be a useable pitch with just minor improvement.
His 6-foot-4 frame is lanky and projectable and might still allow him to pick up a tick on the fastball. Wheeler should begin the year in Double-A and might push that ETA up a bit, but the Mets are the worst team in the East and have no business rushing either Wheeler or Harvey in our opinion. The good news for fans in Queens is that the Mets appear to finally have real pitching prospects with real top-of-the-rotation upside.
Top 50 Prospects: #42 – Yasmani Grandal
#42 Yasmani Grandal
Cincinnati Reds
DOB: 11/8/1988
Previous Rank: N/R
ETA: 2013
Grandal, a product of the Miami Hurricanes program, had a monstrous year behind the dish across three stops, culminating with four games in the International League to close the season out. He even has collected 12 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League. Grandal, a switch hitter, was selected 12th overall in 2010, and in his first full professional season in 2011 slashed .305/.401/.500 as a 22-year old. He should start the year in the high Minors with a chance to break in at some point during 2012. The more realistic scenario likely has him cracking the lineup in Cincinnati in 2013 or somewhere else via a trade since Grandal is behind Devin Mesoraco on the depth chart, a consensus top-20 prospect.
Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | Aff | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 | 21 | Reds | ARIZ | Rk | CIN | 8 | 33 | 28 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | .286 |
2011 | 22 | 3 Teams | 3 Lgs | A+-AA-AAA | CIN | 105 | 441 | 374 | 69 | 114 | 31 | 0 | 14 | 68 | 59 | 97 | .305 |
2011 | 22 | Bakersfield | CALL | A+ | CIN | 56 | 251 | 206 | 47 | 61 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 41 | 57 | .296 |
2011 | 22 | Carolina | SOUL | AA | CIN | 45 | 172 | 156 | 20 | 47 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 13 | 39 | .301 |
2011 | 22 | Louisville | IL | AAA | CIN | 4 | 18 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | .500 |
2 Seasons | 113 | 474 | 402 | 73 | 122 | 32 | 0 | 14 | 69 | 63 | 101 | .303 |
Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | Aff | G | PA | AB | HR | RBI | TB | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 | 21 | Reds | ARIZ | Rk | CIN | 8 | 33 | 28 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .394 | .321 | .715 | 9 |
2011 | 22 | 3 Teams | 3 Lgs | A+-AA-AAA | CIN | 105 | 441 | 374 | 14 | 68 | .305 | .401 | .500 | .901 | 187 |
2011 | 22 | Bakersfield | CALL | A+ | CIN | 56 | 251 | 206 | 10 | 40 | .296 | .410 | .510 | .920 | 105 |
2011 | 22 | Carolina | SOUL | AA | CIN | 45 | 172 | 156 | 4 | 26 | .301 | .360 | .474 | .835 | 74 |
2011 | 22 | Louisville | IL | AAA | CIN | 4 | 18 | 12 | 0 | 2 | .500 | .667 | .667 | 1.333 | 8 |
2 Seasons | 113 | 474 | 402 | 14 | 69 | .303 | .401 | .488 | .888 | 196 |
Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | Aff | G | Ch | PO | A | E | DP | Fld% | RF/G | PB | SB | CS | CS% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 | 21 | Reds | ARIZ | Rk | CIN | C | 4 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 9.25 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 25% |
2011 | 22 | 3 Teams | 3 Lgs | A+-AA-AAA | CIN | C | 90 | 789 | 704 | 72 | 13 | 7 | .984 | 8.62 | 19 | 75 | 39 | 34% |
2011 | 22 | Bakersfield | CALL | A+ | CIN | C | 44 | 430 | 389 | 35 | 6 | 4 | .986 | 9.64 | 14 | 37 | 19 | 34% |
2011 | 22 | Bakersfield | CALL | A+ | CIN | DH | 12 | 0.00 | ||||||||||
2011 | 22 | Carolina | SOUL | AA | CIN | C | 42 | 316 | 273 | 36 | 7 | 3 | .978 | 7.36 | 5 | 36 | 20 | 36% |
2011 | 22 | Louisville | IL | AAA | CIN | C | 4 | 43 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 10.75 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0% |
2 Seasons | 106 | 826 | 738 | 75 | 13 | 7 | .984 | 7.67 | 19 | 78 | 40 | 34% | ||||||
C (2 seasons) | C | 94 | 826 | 738 | 75 | 13 | 7 | .984 | 8.65 | 19 | 78 | 40 | 34% | |||||
DH (1 season) | DH | 12 | 0.00 |
Still, Grandal’s glove typically receives better grades as does his arm than Mesoraco’s. Scouts prefer Grandal’s ability from the left side of the dish a little better than from the right, but he’s plus from both sides. With a full season behind the dish in the Show, Grandal could amass 20 bombs and approach a .300 average with good on-base skills and above average defense. That sounds a lot like Victor Martinez to me, especially when considering that he hits from both sides. Grandal is the kind of big-upside backstop that every club would like to see in the high Minors.
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