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#17 Bubba Starling

Kansas City Royals

DOB: 8/3/1992

Previous Rank: N/A

ETA: 2014

Starling was the top prep position player available in the 2011 draft.  His tools were the finest in the 2011 class for any position player, though.  He’s blazing fast, throws gas from the outfield, generates outstanding bat speed, and has a frame that projects both in terms of potential and the likelihood of a healthy career.  As far as we at The Sombrero are concerned, however, that is where the compliments end.

Starling is loaded with shit makeup, a lack of familiarity with the game, and poor fundamentals in terms of both mechanics and comprehension.  He signed late too, and basically missed half a season unnecessarily, suggesting that baseball is not a terribly high priority for him.  You’d think a guy who wasted as much time fooling around with a football as Starling did would want to get started early to attempt to maybe even the playing field between himself and the guys who have lived within the game for the last 10 or 15 years.

Starling then proceeded to receive an underage drinking charge.  Don’t look for this guy to ever have much in the way of baseball IQ.  Expect insane tools and athleticism, the type that guys like Starling don’t deserve.  He should spend a season and a half or two in the low Minors and about the same amount in Double-A and Triple-A.  Look for him to debut in center some time in 2014.  KC is really going to regret passing on Archie Bradley.

#17 Devin Mesoraco

Cincinnati Reds

DOB: 6/19/1988

Previous Rank: 27

ETA: 2011

It’s hard to believe that a guy like Yasmani Grandal could somehow become dispensable (not to mention Yonder Alonso), but that is exactly what happened when the Reds sent both guys to San Diego for Mat Latos.  The primary reasons that deal makes sense for the Reds is No. 1: Joey Votto, and No: 2, Devin Mesoraco.

Mesoraco slashed .289/.371/.484 for Louisville and then was called up for 50 at-bats with Cincinnati.  He went deep 15 times in Triple-A, walks at a decent clip, and projects for way more power than he currently displays.  Perhaps even more important, though, is that Mesoraco possesses the tools to be an average catcher in the Show.  He is an average receiver as well as thrower, and should be the Opening Day starter for the Reds in 2012 , hitting in the middle of the order by 2014 alongside Jay Bruce and Votto.

Grandal is built like a brick wall, so it’s tough for him to get his 220-pound frame moving.  That is just about the only knock on him, though. Devin Mesoraco is one of the finest hitting prospects in the game, and he does an average job on the other side of the ball at a premium position.

#25 Nolan Arenado

Colorado Rockies

DOB: 4/16/1991

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2013

Arenado was recently named MVP of the Arizona Fall League after slashing .388/.423/.636 with six jacks in 121 at-bats.  In the California League as a 20-year-old, Arenado posted a .298/.349/.487 line with 20 home runs and 32 doubles as well as nearly as many walks as strikeouts.  We expect Arenado to open the year in Double-A, and debut some time in Denver in 2013.

Arenado’s defense has been under scrutiny since he was an amateur, but he cut some weight last winter and improved his mobility in the process, silencing some doubters.  I am not convinced that he can be average at the hot corner yet, but he is definitely good enough to play at least a few seasons there before sliding to first.  His bat plays anywhere and has room to improve in the power category as well.  His speed is not even close to average, but it never has to be.

Arenado is as exciting an infield prospect as exists in the game today, and he should make several all-star teams before he is done leaving his stamp on the NL West.

#23 Martin Perez

Texas Rangers

DOB: 4/4/1991

Previous Rank: 28

ETA: 2012

Perez finally threw up the stats to back up his enormous potential…and then plummeted back to earth after a promotion to Triple-A.  As one of the top pitchers in the Texas League and quite likely the top lefty, Perez posted a 3.16 ERA in 88.1 innings with 83 strikeouts compared to 36 walks.  While that is far too many walks, those numbers were still way better than any we’d seen thus far from Perez.   He then proceeded to put up a 6.83 ERA with – who really cares what the rest of his numbers were like after giving up that many runs?

Perez has pretty rocky fastball command for a prospect getting this kind of ranking, but his stuff is just too good to rank him any lower.  His fastball reaches the mid-90s, and he has arguably the finest breaking pitch in the Minors in the form of a heavy downer curveball.  It can flash double and triple-plus when it is on and in the zone, and we, like many, are very reluctant to slap an 80 on anything that isn’t a 100 mph heater or a 3.8 sec. to first.  He has a solid to plus changeup as well that shows quality fade and should be plenty to handle righties effectively.

Perez has elite stuff, and with more than a full season in the high Minors under his belt at just 20-years of age, could be a top of the rotation arm.  Reaching that level will require improved fastball command and a more consistent delivery, although the latter is greatly improved relative to what it was as a teenager.  We see a lot of Gio Gonzalez in Perez, and like Gio, Perez could be both an All-Star in the Show and excellent trade bait.

#24 Josh Bell

Pittsburgh Pirates

DOB: 8/14/1992

Previous Rank: N/A

ETA: 2014

How is it that no one in the first round went after this guy?  It’s no secret for readers of The Sombrero that we were all in on Bell for whatever the cost.  It must have killed the Red Sox and any other team without a budget to see Pittsburgh get this kid signed.

Without a doubt Bell was the premier prep bat in the 2011 draft class, and the assumption was that Bell was unsignable regardless of the size of the bonus.  Wrong.  The Pirates got it done for $5 million, and as we learned last week what dramatic effects the new CBA will bring to the draft, that number is looking pretty damn tame.  Bell likely would be one of the first guys off of the board if not the first in three years, and the slot recommendation for the top pick is around $7.5 million and likely climbing.

Bell is a 60 hitter from both sides with a 60 future power grading.  His defense in the outfield is better than people gave him credit for prior to the draft, and it should improve as he matures to the point that he is at least average in left if not a 55.  We expect the Pirates to start Bell out in Easy A and to be patient with him, but bats like his are rare.  Look for the Bucs to push Bell through as fast as they can to ensure that he reaches PNC before Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen begin to decline and as Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole are reaching their primes.

The Pirates system is not making quite as much noise as Washington’s due in large part to the fact that Bryce Harper is in the latter, but they are just about as stellar at the top and might even be deeper.  Bell is without a doubt the top bat in the Pirates organization and could challenge for a top 10 ranking in 2012.