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Much to the delight (and to some, the disbelief) of the Grinnell College baseball community, it became official late Saturday afternoon: the Pioneers are a perfect 10-0 in Midwest Conference play and South Division champions for just the second time ever.  They’ll be hosting the Midwest Conference Tournament beginning on Friday, May 14, and despite what the Chinese calendar might say, the team could not be more confident that this is finally the year of the Pioneer.

On the mound, the Pioneers have arguably the best one-two starting pitching tandem in the history of the program.  Ryan “Don’t touch the” Harris ’10 takes the ball in Game 1 with a 4-1 record, a 2.41 ERA and a K/BB ratio of almost 3:1.  The big lefty from St. Louis will look to do something on May 14 that no Pioneer has ever done before: advance the Pioneers to the winner’s bracket with a Game 1 victory.  Backing him up is Ben Pope ’12, whose numbers are even better at 6-1, 1.39.  He has also finished five of the eight games he has started, and will take the hill in Game 2.

However, no other pitcher with an ERA below 5 has logged a start for the Pioneers this year.  Candidates to take the ball in Game 3, should the Pioneers make it that far, are Chris Peconga ’12, who has logged the most starts of anyone not named Pope or Harris and compiled a 1-3 record with an 8.42 ERA, or David “Have another beer” Platt ’10, who has started just one game but holds a 5.16 ERA and a 1-0 record, both the best on the team among pitchers not named Pope or Harris who have thrown five innings or more.  In addition, closer Chad “You don’t need a bottle opener, that’s a” Christoff ’10 (2 SV) may be called upon before the ninth inning in a tight ballgame.  As someone who has attended three College World Series and seen his Miami Hurricanes bow out on elimination day all three times, this writer can testify that although two stud pitchers can get you to the dance, it takes more than that to win it all.  It will be very interesting to see who steps up for this Pioneer pitching staff on Day Two of the tournament, when all teams’ Conference starters will be used and games are likely to be much higher-scoring.

On the other side of the ball, the Pioneers are led in nearly all offensive categories by sophomore sensation Mike “Smile and” Nodzenski ’12, whose sizzling .453 batting average and mind-blowing 1.367 OPS makes him an offensive force like no Pioneer lineup has seen since the days of Jason Anderson ’02, whose walk-off grand slam catapulted the Pioneers to their only other South Division championship all the way back in 2001. However, some say Nodzenski is having the greatest season of anyone ever to don the scarlet and black, already with ten round-trippers and the season not over yet.

Hitting right in front of him in the Pioneer lineup is Greg “All Present and Accounted for” Suryn ’11.  Suryn currently owns a torrid .446 batting average and an other-worldly 1.180 OPS while leading the team with four triples.  While his power (2 HR) does not approach Nodzenski’s, one of those home runs will be counted among the most important in the history of Grinnell College baseball.  Suryn’s crucial blow came in the bottom of the eighth inning of the eventual division-clincher, tying the game up and forcing it into extra innings, where the Pioneers eventually won, 10-6, on Nate Pierce ’10’s walk-off grand slam, who two seasons ago was not even wearing a Pioneer uniform.

Finally, no account of the Pioneers’ offensive abilities would be complete without mention of senior Paden “End of the” Roder ’10, whose team-leading total of ten home runs more than justifies his other team-leading total of 23 free passes.  Roder’s uncanny ability to both get on base consistently and find the other side of the wall, along with leadoff hitter Chad Takabuki ‘10’s disruptive power-speed combination (11 XBH, 8 SB) helps this offense strike some serious fear not only into opposing pitchers, but catchers as well.

Regardless of the Pioneers’ chances (and most think they are very real), the alumni response to the team’s achievement has been nothing short of remarkable.

“Congratulations on the two big wins!” said former all-MWC pitcher Gary “Wrath of” Kahn ’09 via facebook all the way from South Africa.  “I know I had nothing to do with it, but I am so proud of this team,” remarked 2003 second-team all-MWC outfielder Peter Leo ’06, currently a Drake University law student. Jim Malewitz ’09, currently in Iowa City studying journalism and author of his blog, the Iowa City Digress, is “stoked beyond belief” to come back and watch the Pioneers vie for their first-ever conference title.

Former All-MWC second-teamer Robbie Unsell ’08 proclaims that “his spirit will be with” the Pioneers as he studies veterinary medicine in London, England.  2008 MWC South Division pitcher of the year Rick “Everybody knows about the” Berdelle ’09 (Clarendon Hills, IL) will be coming to the tournament and is “willing to accept any sleeping accommodations” to watch the Pioneers next weekend.  Golden Sombrero founder and former Pioneer captain Mike Rosenbaum ’08 will be making the trek in from St. Louis, having already taken in a Pioneer doubleheader sweep of Illinois College in Jacksonville, IL.  Former Pioneer ace Sam Eaton ’07 (Austin, TX) and all-MWC first-teamers Kevin Byrne ’06 (Chicago, IL) and Baylor dental school first-year Daniel Dee Clark ’08 (Farmington, NM) also may be in attendance to watch the Pioneers make their run at history as part of what will undoubtedly be a raucous crowd come May 14th.

The Pioneers are three games—just 27 innings—away from history, as they’ll look to capture Grinnell’s first-ever Midwest Conference title next weekend on the North Diamond.  And if you can’t make it, that’s no problem whatsoever—2008 first-team all MWC South Division catcher Jim Malewitz ‘09 along with myself, Justin Abramson ’08, the one-time voice of Pioneer athletics, will have the call for you for Midwest Conference Television, with coverage starting ten minutes before first pitch.  You can catch all the action at www.pennatlantic.com.

So come on out to the ballpark with us for the Midwest Conference tournament!  From Honolulu, Hawaii all the way to Durbanville, South Africa, Pioneer baseball fever has struck the globe, and the only cure may be a conference championship.  The Pioneers lit the fire this fall as they do every year, and while sometimes that fire is nothing but a few glowing embers after the first week of May, there is no doubt now that it will be a roaring blaze at the North Diamond come tournament time.

There are a handful of players across Major League Baseball that are proving that their misfortunes and struggles from last year(and some even longer) are behind them.  For avid, fantasy enthusiasts like myself and the rest of the staff at The Golden Sombrero, the resurgence of many of these players may not be news.  Yet, to those not in an absurdly competitive, 16-team league, these once elite, ballplayers will continue to be unrecognized or disregarded to their involvement on a potentially non-contending team. Despite this notion, and also considering that most players are nearing 100 at-bats, Vernon Wells, Kelly Johnson and Andruw Jones’ immediate success cannot be ignored.  For these few players, it is important to dissect what has made them successful thus far and whether they might be able to maintain their current level of production.

Vernon Wells, OF Blue Jays
2010 Statistics: .330//385/.690 (1.075 OPS%)  21 R, 12 2B, 8 HR, 18 RBI, 1 SB
Like so many others, I was more than ready to write off Vernon Wells as a lost cause; another player who has been rendered irrelevant due to a weak Blue Jays’ offense and perpetual injuries.  Wells finished his 2009 campaign with a line of .260/.311/.400 that included 15 HR, 66 RBI and 17 SB, which, in reality, is not all that terrible.  However, he had set the bar high for himself with his 2003 season that included 33 HR and 117 RBI.  Is Wells capable of repeating such production? More so, can he surpass his previous career highs?  I believe that he will.  Wells has never struck out more than 90 times in a full season and has a career K/BB ratio of about 2, indicative that he consistently makes contact.  When you combine his knack for contact with the fact that he is generating a fly ball 53% of the time, I think Wells will almost certainly slug 33+ HRs.  At the same time, it will be nearly impossible for him to maintain his current 1.202 OPS% with runners in scoring position.  Similarly, the Blue Jays offense is likely to continue struggling throughout the year which means Wells might become a solo bomb machine. Barring any significant injury, I would expect Wells to finish the year with 95-105 RBI, which would rank as one of his best seasons.

Kelly Johnson, 2B Diamondbacks
2010 Statistics: .310/.404/.726 (1.130 OPS%) 17 R, 8 2B, 9 HR, 18 RBI, 1 SB
I haven’t talked to Rob about it yet, but I would guess that he is glad I’m touching upon Kelly Johnson’s resurgence with the Diamondbacks.  We both have always been KJ fans since he burst on the scene with the Braves in 2005, but could never quite grasp the reasons for his decline over the past two seasons. When receiving regular playing time, I have always seen great value in Johnson as both a big league 2b and as a fantasy player.  In 2007, Johnson posted a .832 OPS% that featured career highs in both home-runs(16) and walks(79) in 521 at-bats, stats that are indicative of the essence of his success.  Patience.  That year, Johnson lead the NL in walks among second-basemen and saw an impressive 4.12 pitchers/plate appearance(#P/PA).  This season, he is off to the best start of his career with a .310 BA, 9 HR, 18 RBI, 14 BB, 1 SB in 84 at-bats.  While Johnson has always been regarded as a streaky player, his performance thus far has been nothing short of consistent and I believe that he is in the midst of his career season.  In those 84 at-bats, he has seen an impressive 4.36 #P/PA, which ranks 5th in the MLB and 1st among second basemen.  If Johnson even remotely continues at this pace, he will undoubtedly set new career highs in most offensive categories.  My prediction: 21 HR and 80 RBI

Oh yeah, did I mention that he has a 1.277 OPS% against left-handed pitching this year?

*The other day, I read a fantastic, comprehensive article by the Capitol Avenue Club that details the intricacies of Kelly Johnson’s career.

Andruw Jones, OF White Sox
2010 Statistics:  .274/.400/.694 (1.094 OPS%)   13 R, 2 2B, 8 HR, 11 RBI, 4 SB
If you didn’t already know, I am a White Sox fan.  Having said that, the first month of the season has left me utterly disappointed and concerned about what’s to come.  There have been a few bright-spots in the White Sox lineup, but I doubt that anybody could have predicted that Andruw Jones would be one of them.  Jones has affixed himself in the middle of the White Sox order thanks to his 8 HR(2 multi-HR games) and 11 RBI in just 62 at-bats.  Even more impressive has been the un-Andruw-Jones-like, plate discipline that has resulted in his 12 BB compared to only 18 K.  We can’t be talking about the same Andruw Jones, right? Wrong.  Jones is seeing a career high 4.61 #P/PA which raises an important question: is he really capable of reinventing his offensive approach at this point in his career?  Since he burst onto the scene with Atlanta, Jones has never really seemed to want to adapt to the rest of the league.  Even in his darkest hour on the Dodgers, he seemed totally complacent and unwilling to reconfigure his swing and approach.  However, there is definitely something different about Jones this season compared to his stints with both the Dodgers and Rangers.  In addition to finally shedding some pounds, Jones just looks comfortable playing baseball again.  The White Sox seem to be a nice fit for the 33 year old and his early production will only merit an increase in his playing time.  As long as Jones doesn’t remember who he has been over the past couple seasons, I see him capable of hitting .260 with 30 HR, 85 RBI and 15+ SB.

Late one evening, my assistant coach-for both my high school C-Team and my summer league Connie Mack team-his girlfriend, my girlfriend and I were entertaining ourselves with some rather deep conversation about teaching techniques.  By around 12:15 a.m. an epiphany had found its way through to my brain.  We all began discussing different success stories of education, via public high school, baseball coaching, or as a full-time educator in a youth detention center-better known as juvie.  I am a first-time, 9th grade English teacher, 3rd year baseball coach (first time high school), that coaches the Farmington High School C-team in the baseball program.  Jeff Rogers, the aforementioned assistant (the coaching variety, not upper echelon society) is a rookie in the coaching department and has a ton of new insight due to virgin eyes, so to speak.  My girlfriend, Jenna, is an educator inside the Farmington Youth Detention Center and has insight into teaching from a point of view that deals with some of the most unfortunate minds that America has to offer.  To be short, we are a group of educators that cover the gamut of educational opportunities.  During this conversation I found that every story had a common denominator; they all dealt in small group scenarios, where the learners felt that they were learning something that was uniquely new to their group and not to any other group of the population.  They felt that they were the new holders of knowledge.  Specialized learning is common place, even to the first year teacher.  How does that carry over to baseball?

By creating an environment that feels specialized (read as personal) the learning experience holds deeper within the young mind.  Thus, the educator must create small group areas in order to promote proper learning.  I have personally seen the production of teaching multiple techniques/practices, to particular groups of 3-4 players/practice and have found the turnouts to be just short of extraordinary.  For instance, with my six 8th graders ,I have two who are above the rest.  I am able to group them with a couple of the lowest freshmen, and teach one principle for a round of BP.  For another group of my most superior players, I am able to teach a much more sophisticated approach to what hitting is and means.  There are about 2 more distinct groups of players, such as speed guys and pitchers, that I end up being able to talk about my true passion in 4 different ways each and every practice; five ways if you count the average kids in the middle, right on track.  This is simply amazing.

I now have, maybe, the truest experience of baseball one could imagine.  I am able to focus the majority of my skills and prior practiced/played experiences on my one true passion in life (except for my previously mention girlfriend Jenna.  She’ll never be #2); baseball.  The pleasure brought forth, through realization of this, has made my most recent 45 minutes post-enlightenment, pure bliss.  I feel like I am living a dream, fuck the cliché.  It is this joyous, slightly extravagant, excitement that makes me thank baseball for my life.  It has lead me down a road that I am forever thankful for finding.  Baseball has taken all over the place.  New Mexico. Arizona.  California.  Colorado.  Wyoming.  New York.  Omaha, Nebraska.  Texas.  Missouri.  Simply put, it’s provided me with the chance to experience an eclectic environment and way of life (especially baseball life) that is unique.

It is unique in the same way that the teaching is unique.  From the immaculate artist, locked away, to the 8th grader who has never had proper coaching, to the kid who asks to ignore The Odyssey for a day, and find out how to eliminate the national debt.  Sure they are once in a blue moon, both the class discussion with freshmen and truly gifted baseball players, but that is the beauty of it.  It provides multiple opportunities to discuss some personal interests.  A personal investment is the most efficient fuel towards true education.  I feel lucky to have had baseball in my life.  Thank you baseball.  Thank you for leading me to where I have landed.  I am the happiest man I could be.  And all along the way, you have helped me discover a better way of educating.  Two passions for the price of one.  (Hey, I had to bring it all around full circle somehow.)  One.

After a most unpredictable and exciting first week and a half of the Major League Baseball season, I’ve noticed a trend that has become all too clear to GMs and fantasy owners alike.  They wish that they had Joe Mauer and his sweet, sweet 1.167 OPS%.  During the off-season, Mauer and the Twins inked a 8yr/$184mil contract that essentially made him a Twin for life.  Yes, that is an obscene amount of money, but why not?  Who wouldn’t shell out the big bucks for a 6’4”, 5-tool, left-handed hitting catcher? However, Mauer’s greatness also brings to light a vast discrepancy in the quality of catchers across the league.  In both the AL and NL Central, there are too many teams receiving little or no production from their catcher(s).  Yes, I know that it’s early in the season and I sympathize with how constricting and relenting the cold can be, but I am not surprised by the specific catchers that are struggling.  Some have been over-hyped while others have fallen victim to the minors.  Some are just too old.  I guess that what I’m really trying to say, is that I’m sure Brad Ausmus is feeling pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good about being on the DL to start the season .

NL Central
Cubs:
Should we really attribute Geovanny Soto’s highly disappointing 2009 campaign to the “sophomore slump,” or do the Cubs have a greater problem on their hands?  Soto’s slow start to the current season is reminiscent of his slow start last season that ultimately resulted in a .218/.321/.381.  Entering Wednesday, Soto was just 2-for-15(.133) with no extra base-hits and three walks.  The Cubs don’t seem to have the patience that they did last year with Soto; Koyie Hill was given consecutive starts on Thursday and Friday in lieu of Soto’s lack of production.  In those two games Hill went 1-for-6 (.167), which means that Cubs’ catchers are hitting a combined .143.  But wait, it gets worse.  Neither Soto or Hill have an extra base hit and neither have tallied an RBI.  In 2008, Soto carried the Cubs on his back into the postseason and it seems as though he will need to do so again this year.  On a personal note, Soto is the skidmark on my fantasy team; he’s really making me look an asshole for expecting immediate results.

Astros:
As Griff alluded to in his previous article, this is going to be a painful year for the Houston Astros.  Rather than trying to solve any of their offensive deficiencies, the Astros deemed it best to sign RP Brandon Lyon to a 3yr/$15mil contract. After trying to produce a homegrown catcher for the better part of a decade(with minimal success), when do you give up?  Apparently, not quite yet.  Former top prospect J.R. Towles was given the opening day nod(by default) and has done nothing to prove that he deserves it.  Prior to Wednesday’s games Towles was 1-for-16(.063) and yet to draw a walk.  Towles initial struggles prompted the Astros to mix in Humberto Quintero, who has only responded by hitting .111.  Much like the Cubs, the Astros’ catchers are yet to drive in a run and seem highly unlikely to do so with any consistency.  I’m tired of seeing them play catcher roulette every season.  On the bright side, Jason Castro is lurking in the minors and seems destined to assume the catching duties at some point this season.  For the sake of Asros’ fans, let’s just hope that it is sooner rather than later.

• Over the past three seasons, former teammate and catcher for my high school team, Jon Fixler, has given himself a name within the Astros organization.  Currently playing for the Lexington Legends(A), Fix reached Chorpus Christi(AA) last season after showing continual improvements and an ability to adapt to each level.  I also recently learned that he has a blog, through the Astros, where he reflects on his Minor League experiences.

Brewers:
Is it me, or are the Brewers just reusing and recycling veteran catchers?  With Jason Kendall’s reign of terror over Milwaukee complete, I would have liked to seen the Brewers stray from the path of employing another old, irrelevant catcher.  But of course, they signed Greg Zaun.  It could have gotten really crazy had the Cardinals not resigned Jason LaRue for the season.  Headed into Wednesday, Zaun’s 0-for-18 with two walks has been a black hole in an otherwise productive, Brewer lineup.  In an effort to ignite the lower third of the lineup Ken Macha has given George Kottaras increased opportunities to step up.  Kottaras has produced a .167/.250/.167 line that just screams, “Eat your heart out J.R. Towles!”

AL Central

Indians:
Where is Jake Taylor when you need him?  Although, at his age, I suspect that his level of production would rival those of Zaun and Kendall. That would have to be better than the Indians’ atrocious Marson/Redmond tandem, right?  Marson entered Wednesday’s action rocking a dismal .077/.143/.077, which makes Redmond’s .182/.250/.273 seem acceptable.  If you didn’t know already, the Tribe is just laying low before they unveil their coveted, catching-phenom Carlos Santana.  I’m really excited for that to happen, whenever it does, but for the time being, rough.

Tigers:
I’m going to go relatively easy on Gerald Laird because I still think he is a great, overall catcher.  However, he doesn’t have to report to me with that .056 batting average.  It is clear that Tigers are scheming over their catching situation based upon their choice to include Alex Avila on the opening day roster.  In his 69 career at-bats with the TIgers, the 22 year-old Avila has posted an impressive .910% OPS.  Avila could be a nice fantasy addition within the next couple weeks for those that have any of the players I just hacked into.

Saturday night, in the bottom of the 14th inning with the Padres up one run on the Rockies, manager Bud Black had a decision to make.  There were two outs and the tying run was on second.  Ian Stewart was at the plate and Chris Iannetta was on deck.  Black decided to walk Stewart, putting the winning run on base, and pitch to Iannetta (even though Iannetta had already gone deep in that game), who struck out to end the game.  He looked like a genius at the time, but things could’ve been much different had Iannetta ripped a two-RBI double down the right field line to win it.
This reminded me of Ernest Thayer’s famous 1888 poem, “Casey At the Bat”.  For those who don’t know it, it can be found here.  The story details a team down by two runs with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning.  Two weak hitters proceed to hit a single, then a double, which brings up the star hitter, “Casey,” with the tying run in scoring position and two out.
We all know how the story ends.  But what might a major league manager have done in this situation?  If he’s 2009 Manager of the Year Jim Tracy, he might have walked Casey.  And this seems to make sense.  First base was open and Casey represents the most feared hitter on the team, if not in the game.  In addition, Casey was likely a big, strong home run hitter built like Jason Giambi—it’s unlikely that he had even average speed, and so he may not even have been able to score on a double from the next hitter.  What’s not to like?

The first thing not to like is that an intentional walk increases the expected number of runs scored in any inning (Source: Baseball Prospectus at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=68778), regardless of how many are on base and how many are out.  Of course, this doesn’t mean it’s never a good idea—sometimes the hitter at the plate is significantly better than the one on deck, and sometimes the extra 1/3 of a run (or so) that the walk creates would be nearly meaningless to the outcome of the game.  In the top of the ninth, with the pitching team down a single run and with runners on second and third with two outs, an intentional walk does not hurt the pitching team in any significant way, because if that run were to eventually score, it would mean the difference between having to score three and four runs in the ninth inning—a scenario so unlikely anyway that only a small difference in ability between the on-deck hitter and the hitter at the plate would prompt an IBB.

Steven Biel did an analysis here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/320766-rating-the-managers-by-intentional-walks of intentional walks issued in 2009, and he ranked the managers by how often they issued intentional walks that had no statistical chance of improving the pitching team’s chance of winning.  For this analysis, I care less about the manager and more about the aggregate picture of the walks issued.  In 2009, there were 1179 intentional—roughly one every two games.  Biel’s very conservative analysis (done with the help of Baseball Prospectus’s run prediction indexes) showed that 246 of these provided no help to the pitching team.  This is an amount in excess of 20%.  More than one in five times where the manager decides to go to the well with the intentional walk, it is a mistake.  Further, with 246 “bad” IBBs in 2,431 games in 2009, this means that once in every ten games (well over once per day) a manager is making a mistake and putting his team at a disadvantage by allowing another runner to reach base.

So to answer my own question earlier, issuing an intentional pass to Casey might have worked out all right.  But considering that Casey was probably batting in the #3 spot, walking him would have put the winning run on base with the cleanup hitter at the plate—likely providing a much better opportunity for joy in Mudville than the opposing team did by taking their chances with Casey.  However, Biel’s analysis suggests that many of the 30 major league managers would have chosen to walk Casey, as Bud Black did most recently on Saturday, April 10.  Taking into account the number of intelligent people in the United States who would leave well-paying jobs today for a chance to make $10 an hour as a major league manager, it does seem strange that managers so often make the move to put a runner on base when it makes no statistical sense to do so.