Posts belonging to Category Prospects/Rookies

The hitters in the Arizona Fall League haven’t been kind to Matt Purke.  After allowing an earned run over two innings in his AFL debut on October 15^th, the left-hander has surrendered 10 earned runs over his last inning and a third.

Making his first start against Surprise on October 21^st, Purke couldn’t escape a disastrous first inning. He allowed seven runs on five hits and walk, and managed to record only one out.  He followed it up with another brutal appearance nearly a week later in a relief appearance against Mesa.  Although Purke successfully made it through the inning, he still gave up three earned on four hits.

Just as it was towards the end of last season following several months of arm problems, Purke’s stuff has been flat this fall, and the 2010 velocity that once garnered No. 1 overall pick consideration is nowhere to be found.

According to Amanda Comak of The Washington Times:

Purke faced eight batters, he retired one. The one out he did get was a rocket high and deep to right field — but foul — that Phillies’ right fielder Tyson Gillies ran down and leapt for. He threw 22 pitches — 12 balls, 10 strikes — and fell behind to almost every single batter he faced. He walked one, Kansas City’s Wil Myers, on four pitches and hit another, Atlanta’s Todd Cunningham. His velocity reached 92 once but sat mostly in the 89-91 range and he didn’t seem to have great feel for his breaking stuff.

Sure Purke hadn’t faced hitters—let alone quality ones—since last spring before pitching in the AFL, but he has immediately emerged as the pitcher that no team wanted to touch with a 20-foot pole last June.

Here is some video of Purke during his breakout, red-shirt freshman season at TCU in 2010:

And here’s a video of Purke warming up before to his first AFL appearance:

With the fall baseball season in full swing nationwide and the WWBA championships coming to a close in Jupiter, FL, it seems fitting to discuss a prospect who perhaps has the most to gain or lose out of anyone in the months leading up to the June draft.  Stanford SS Kenny Diekroeger is arguably the best athlete in this year’s college crop.  He is basically a 60 across the board player in the “athlete” tools as well as with the glove.  He has all of the tools necessary to be a key up-the-middle contributor with a very good chance to be average at short or plus at second.  Diekroeger will have three years at Stanford under his belt come June and that combination of tools and experience should mean a very high selection in the draft, right?  Not necessarily.

Diekroeger posted a .293/.364/.356 slash line for the Cardinal in 2011 after .356/.392/.491 line as a freshman.  Many have used the new bat regulations to explain this drop in production.  I think there is more to it.  Kenny’s bat speed is easily at least plus, but he creates very little loft with his swing mechanics and produces entirely too many GB’s because his hands drop as he loads.  For most belt-high pitches and above (easily within the NCAA strike-zone) Kenny is a below-the-ball hitter.  This is not necessarily an easy fix, and it could be a problem that he will fight the rest of his days on the diamond.  It’s not necessarily as though he will ever be a bad hitter with his current mechanics, but he cannot be elite with them either, and with a frame as large as the one he currently has, sliding to third or the outfield is a real possibility.  An average or below hit tool on a 60 runner is not a first round player in many organizations’ opinions, and Diekroeger has potentially millions to gain from improved bat track and mechanics this year.

Diekroeger fails to transfer all of his weight and tends to close his lower half off as well.  This is usually an easier fix than the bat track issues, but is much tougher to do when also attempting to correct upper body flaws.

The PAC-12 is loaded with strong pitching this season, and Diekroeger will be able to prove (or not prove) that he is deserving of the top-10 talk that he was receiving after his freshman year as opposed to the late first round or early compensation round talk that he began receiving after his numbers softened up in 2011.  Diekroeger might very well be the second infielder off of the board in 2012 behind ASU SS Deven Marrero, but he also could end up falling behind several prep kids too like Gavin Cecchini.

After coming through with a go-ahead RBI single off the bench in Games 1 and 2, Allen Craig is expected to start as the Cardinals’ right-fielder as the series shifts to Arlington.  And with a pair of left-handers scheduled to start Games 3 and 4 for the Rangers, the addition of Craig’s stick into the Cardinals’ potent batting order couldn’t be better timed.

After nearly five years of raking his way through the Cardinals’ system—.885 OPS, .209 ISO in 2180 plate appearances—Craig made his big-league debut on April 8, 2010, and went on to appear in 44 games and post a .711 OPS in 114 at-bats.

Although Craig’s 2011 campaign was slightly marred by trips to the disabled list and serving as a bench player under Tony LaRussa, he was incredibly productive when in the lineup.  In 219 plate appearances, Craig slashed .315/.362/.555 and posted a .158 wRC+ while playing all three outfield positions as well as second base – he finished the season with a 9.9 UZR/150.

Craig’s increased success at the plate can largely be attributed to a noticeable improvement at hitting offspeed pitches.  Always regarded as a good fastball hitter, Craig struggled against all offspeed offerings in 2010 (-2.0 wSL, -0.9 wCB, and -1.7 wCH), but it was partially offset by a 3.0 wFB (total runs produced off of a fastball).

In 2011, however, Craig’s ability to hit offspeed pitches exponentially improved across the board: 1.3 wSL, 0.6 wCB, and 1.4 wCH.  And while one might have anticipated his success rate against fastballs to suffer as a result, he managed to improve that as well (4.3 wFB).

So should Craig have started in both the Game 1 and 2? In my opinion, yes.  But with Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia pitching against a free-swinging team in cold weather, I understand that defense is even more of a premium and Nick Punto is the Cardinals’ best defensive second baseman.

Even though it will probably kill TLR that he can’t weave a pitcher into the batting order, the use of the designated hitter will allow Berkman to serve as the team’s professional hitter for the next three games, which in turn plugs Craig into right field.

The Rangers’ Game 3 starter is Matt Harrison, who will be followed by fellow southpaw Derek Holland in Game 4 on Sunday.

This season, Craig absolutely mashed left-handed pitching — and even that might even be an understatement.  In 67 at-bats, he posted a 1.000 OPS in addition to a .343 ISO and 175 wRC+.  Therefore, the inclusion of DH has the potential to bolster the Cardinal offense.  And while he’s already been a hero once (technically twice) this postseason, Allen Craig will have the opportunity to make a monumental impact on this series.

Danny Hultzen, the second-overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft by the Seattle Mariners, has made two starts for the Peoria Javelinas of the Arizona Fall League. In his professional debut against the Surprise Saguaros, a team loaded with prospects like Tim Beckham, Wil Myers, and Matt Dominguez, the left-hander allowed one run on three hits while issuing a walk and fanning two over two innings.

Hultzen’s second start against the Mesa Solar Sox was a bit rockier, as he allowed one run on six hits and one walk over three innings.  Although he didn’t record a strikeout, Hultzen escaped serious damage thanks to seven groundball outs.

Through two, brief starts, his line reads: 5 IP, 3.50 ERA, 9 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 4.50 GO/AO

Courtesy of MLB Prospect Portal, here is a clip of Hultzen warming up before his start against the Solar Sox:

After each Ranger game this October, the sports fans of my dental school class usually have something to say to me about the previous night/day’s game.  From bullpen usage to pinch hitters, they typically want to hear what I have to say about the decisions being made on and off the field that affect the Rangers and their bid to follow the Mavs as world champs.  I don’t know what or who the Mavs are, but apparently they won something called the NBA Finals last summer just as baseball season was about to break for All-Star festivities.   If you’ve been reading my stuff on this site for long, you know that October is the worst month at the Baylor College of Dentistry each month.  It is referred to as Black October because it is full of midterm exams, progress exams, presentations, etc.  Nevertheless, for me at least, whatever is happening at school must take a backseat to whatever is happening in baseball.  Two nights ago I had to move my bedroom TV into the living room so I could watch both LCS games and simultaneously study for my pediatrics exam, which I had at 7:40 the following morning.  I surely did quite poorly on the exam, but I also was able to watch two pretty fantastic games.  Perspectives, right?

The baseball fans of my class as well as several faculty members and their baseball-related questions make my experience at dental school much more enjoyable, and, despite the fact that BCD tries so hard to make October suck, this month is still the best month of the year.  2011 is uniquely terrific because such a high percentage of the game’s truly elite hitters and pitchers were/are on playoff teams.  Evan Longoria, David Price, CC, Doc, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Chase Utley, Robinson Cano, Tex, Grandelay, Justin Upton, James Shields, and those are just some of the guys who have already been eliminated.  The remaining players and teams are so evenly matched and the games have been so competitive that the baseball world has been collectively drooling since the last week of September.

As we watch the NFL and NBA unions collectively fail their fans and their sports altogether, we baseball fans are reminded this time of year how lucky we are that we have the game that we do.  Honestly, how is the NFL players’ union going to allow for HGH testing?  That league is in very serious danger.  What NFL player isn’t on H?  The kickers?  Maybe.  And the NBA has already cancelled games because of labor disputes.  This might be baseball’s chance to take back what it is rightly due, the hearts of sports fans nationwide.

What we baseball nuts can do for the sport during this month is realize that no matter what is going on in our lives, we must continue to make time for the game.  The people we surround ourselves with on a daily basis must constantly be reminded how awesome the game is and how lucky we are to have a month long holiday where we are encouraged to celebrate it.  So as the World Series approaches and with both LCS’s very evenly matched and close, remember how lucky we are to have a game to follow that provides us thousands of games a year at the highest level to follow and love.  This is the culmination of another terrific year.  Thanks for reading The Sombrero and sticking with us as Arlo worked through whatever malware bullshit was going on here a couple of weeks ago.  Happy October baseball fans!