Posts belonging to Category Prospects/Rookies

As usual, the Flagrant Fan continues to churn out impressive work.  One of my daily must-read sites, the Fan also does a great job maintaining order as the President of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance’s General Chapter.  Yesterday he wrote about the Yankees’ catching situation and how Jesus Montero’s bat needs to be in the everyday lineup in 2012.  And you know what? I couldn’t agree with the Fan more.

Mike Newman of Scouting the Sally and FanGraphs explores Bill James’s 2012 projections for Paul Goldschmidt—a player Newman’s personally scouted—and more specifically, his .382 wOBA, which would place him in elite company.  Keep your eyes peeled for an upcoming Q&A with Mike, who has scouted many of baseball’s most exciting prospects in the Sally.

Also at FanGraphs, you can read a Q&A with Eric Hosmer in which he thoroughly discusses his swing and overall approach to hitting. (Sometimes I have to resist the urge to post links to every FanGraphs article; what an absolutely phenomenal site.

As we gradually unveil our Post-2011 Top 50 Prospects, I’d like to draw attention to Seedlings to Stars, who are also in the midst of their own prospect countdown.  However, their Top 100 is a bit more ambitious and really well done.  Just today we named Zack Wheeler as our No. 41 prospect, while at S2S, he was just ranked No. 51. I’m excited to see how our Top 50 rankings compare.

One of my colleagues and good buddies MJ Lloyd—a fellow staff writer at Tomahawk Take and a newly appointed staff writer at Halo Hangout—shares his thoughts on Mike Trout’s loss of rookie status for 2012.  As he contends, it really doesn’t matter. Trout will be an impact player whether he’s considered a rookie or not.

#41 Zack Wheeler

New York Mets

DOB: 5/30/1990

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2014

Wheeler was traded straight up for Carlos Beltran in July and was sent immediately to High Class A St. Lucie where he posted a 2.00 ERA with a 31:5 K:BB ratio in 27 innings.  Those numbers were considerably better than those from the 88 innings he threw in the California League before the trade.  Nevertheless, Wheeler immediately became the top prospect in the Mets organization, and at just 21 years of age, he should be in the rotation at Citi by 2014.

Wheeler features a fastball that sits consistently around 94-95 mph with the ability to reach back for 97 mph.  His best secondary pitch is a true 60 curveball with good 12-6 shape and about 15 mph off of the heater.  His third pitch is a changeup that is far behind the other two pitches at this point due primarily to an inability to maintain arm speed or slot.  The pitch has arm side life with sink, though, and has a chance to be a useable pitch with just minor improvement.

His 6-foot-4 frame is lanky and projectable and might still allow him to pick up a tick on the fastball.  Wheeler should begin the year in Double-A and might push that ETA up a bit, but the Mets are the worst team in the East and have no business rushing either Wheeler or Harvey in our opinion.  The good news for fans in Queens is that the Mets appear to finally have real pitching prospects with real top-of-the-rotation upside.

#42 Yasmani Grandal

Cincinnati Reds

DOB: 11/8/1988

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2013

Grandal, a product of the Miami Hurricanes program, had a monstrous year behind the dish across three stops, culminating with four games in the International League to close the season out.  He even has collected 12 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League.  Grandal, a switch hitter, was selected 12^th overall in 2010, and in his first full professional season in 2011 slashed .305/.401/.500 as a 22-year old.  He should start the year in the high Minors with a chance to break in at some point during 2012.  The more realistic scenario likely has him cracking the lineup in Cincinnati in 2013 or somewhere else via a trade since Grandal is behind Devin Mesoraco on the depth chart, a consensus top-20 prospect.

Still, Grandal’s glove typically receives better grades as does his arm than Mesoraco’s.  Scouts prefer Grandal’s ability from the left side of the dish a little better than from the right, but he’s plus from both sides.  With a full season behind the dish in the Show, Grandal could amass 20 bombs and approach a .300 average with good on-base skills and above average defense.  That sounds a lot like Victor Martinez to me, especially when considering that he hits from both sides.  Grandal is the kind of big-upside backstop that every club would like to see in the high Minors.

#43 Zack Cox

St. Louis Cardinals

DOB: 5/9/1989

Previous Rank: N/R

ETA: 2013

Zack Cox had the best hit tool grading in the 2010 class, was arguably the best hitter in Arkansas history despite only staying there for two seasons, and was a massive steal for the Cardinals as the 25^th pick overall.  In just his first full professional season, Cox reached Double-A and posted very respectable numbers with a slash line of .306/.363/.434 across two stops.

He really has little to prove in the Texas League and should open the year in Triple-A.  Realistically, though, he might be forced to repeat the level if for no other reason than to slow his development down somewhat considering that David Freese seems firmly entrenched at third in St. Louis for a few years.  Cox is a true 70-grade hitter who hits to all parts of the yard, has tremendous balance, bat track, and timing as well as exceptional judgment of both the strike zone and the hitting zone..  His lower half is virtually always fully loaded and on time.  Cox practically never breaks down in his front half but somehow is never really behind anything either.

His pitch selection and recognition is arguably the best in the Minors today, and most balls he squares up have outstanding carry to them.  The one knock, and it’s a small one, is that Cox has a tendency to stay so inside of pitches, particularly on the inner half, that he fails to fully clear and drive long to the pull side.  Personally, if he never corrects this, I still see an all-star bat if he can stay at third.  His glove and speed are far behind his hit tool as well as his power and arm tools, which both grade as 55-60.  He booted 20 grounders in under 90 games in the Texas League and has a long way to go as far as footwork goes, but there is enough to like about his fielding to let him stick at the hot corner in the short term.  St. Louis fans probably don’t want to hear this, but Zach Cox could make Albert Pujols dispensable in some ways.

#44 Sonny Gray

Oakland Athletics

DOB: 11/7/1989

Previous Rank: N/A

ETA: 2013

Sonny Gray receives constant knocks for being undersized, having a high-effort delivery, and lacking an average or above third pitch. We at The Sombrero have never shied away from guys with sound yet high-energy deliveries. In fact, in some cases we prefer them. Gray is one of those cases.

He is extremely athletic and has never given anyone reason to fear injury beyond the fact that he is small-bodied and very explosive. His breaking ball was the best one in the 2011 draft class, even at only 5-foot-11. His fastball can reach 97 mph, and he sits at 93-95 mph most starts. His fastball, like most short righties, has phenomenal carry and explodes through the strike zone.

Gray reached Double-A by his second professional start and only allowed a single run in 20 innings. His peripherals were solid despite being low in quantity (18 strikeouts vs. 6 walks). Gray was one of the best pitchers in the history of Vanderbilt, and, while many scouts see a reliever or mid-rotation starter, we see two 60 pitches with a chance at a 50 third pitch, a fast mover, and ace potential. The only obstacles to overcome are public opinion and minor command issues. The Bay Area has been pretty accepting of small-bodied righties with explosive fastballs and hammer benders recently, so we think Gray will be able to solve at least one of these issues fairly easily.