Posts belonging to Category High School Baseball

• There’s been a growing buzz surrounding University of San Francisco RHP Kyle Zimmer, as he’s asserted his name into the No. 1 overall discussion.  In his first couple starts of the season, his command of four pitches has been great while consistently bringing it in the upper-90s.  John Kilma of Baseball Prospect Report – formerly known as Baseball Beginnings – details what he likes about Zimmer and provides some personal video of the right-hander.

• In the back-end of a double header on Sunday, Georgia Southern right fielder Victor Roache broke his wrist while diving for a ball and is expected to miss the remainder of the 2012 season.  Roache, who is ranked by Baseball America as the No. 9 prospect on their draft board, was coming off a monster offensive season in which he slashed .326/.428/.778 with 30 home runs.  Prior to the injury, he was hitting .412/.600/.765 with two home runs.

• Andrew Pentis of MLB.com wrote a great article on Trevor Bauer and his quest to be the perfect blend of a power and finesse pitcher.  Bauer apparently has nine (yes, nine) pitches, each one specifically designed for a given scenario and/or count.

• After watching endless video and reading a host of scouting reports, a player I like more and more everyday is David Dahl.  I love his setup at the plate as well as his bat path and balance to the point of contact – it’s pretty.  All the tools are there and everything he does on the baseball field looks natural.  Conor Glassey of Baseball America recently posted a first-hand video of Dahl recorded this past summer.  Baseball America also named him a 2012 First Team Preseason High School All-American.

• The great John Sickels of Minor League Ball has finally released his Top 120 prospects for the 2012 season.  In my personal opinion, his list is always one of the best and this year is no different.

• If you’ve enjoyed Dee’s articles on scouting philosophy and the evolution of the prospect landscape, then be sure to check out Nathaniel Stoltz’s “There’s No Such Thing as a First Base Prospect” at Seedlings to Stars.  Stoltz and the rest of the S2S staff have done an impressive job since launching last May, and I find myself reading it daily.

• Over at FanGraphs, Mark Anderson compares Pirates pitching prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon.  He examines their respective mechanics and arsenal as well as their overall command and mound presence.  However, I’ll let you find out who he ultimately prefers.

As opening weekend of NCAA baseball came and went, baseball fans, particularly those of the amateur and collegiate ranks, were once again swept up in the joy of spring and a return to normalcy.  We have been without the game since the end of the Arizona Fall League in many ways.  Although there is no such thing as the off-season for us here at The Sombrero, the recruiting season just isn’t the same as the spring and summer seasons.

The premier series of the weekend saw Vanderbilt travel to Stanford where Mark Appel, arguably the top talent headed into the 2012 MLB Draft, deal on Friday night.  This series also featured the loaded 2011 Draft’s only unsigned 1^st-rounder, Tyler Beede, toss his first collegiate pitch.  Both of these teams rank in the top-10 and are absolutely loaded talent-wise.  What they also are loaded with are entire rosters of players devoted to academic excellence.  This weekend also saw Duke travel to 13^th-ranked Texas in a game that also featured nothing but standout student-athletes.  Next weekend Texas travels to Stanford where the same applies.  These teams come from prime-time athletic conferences and perform well in sports other than baseball, but consider the fact that last year’s Texas squad hosted a series against Brown, a school in which no player on the field was receiving athletic-based financial aid, and actually dropped a game to the Bears.  They’re the University of Texas.  Just imagine for a minute the 40 or so kids that the Longhorns football team might send to the hospital if the Bears were to travel to Austin for a football game.  This hypothetical scenario reflects the idea behind this piece.

Baseball is unique in the world of collegiate athletics in that it provides academically inclined players and institutions many if not all of the opportunities that those players and schools where athletics must come first are provided, which quite clearly is not the case across the collegiate sports landscape.

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Joey Gallo is a physically strong, 6-foot-5, 205-pound, CI/RHP from Bishop Gorman HS (NV).  One of the elite bats in the 2012 draft class, Gallo possesses power to all fields with exceptional pull-side power.  However, it’s not just the left-handed hitter’s bat that intrigues scouts – Gallo also has potential on the mound.

With a low-90s arm across the diamond, scouts will continue to debate whether Gallo is more projectable as a position player or pitcher.  Given his 6-foot-5 frame, he has impressive athleticism and exhibits natural defensive actions at third base.  However, he isn’t an elite defender and will probably never grade higher than a 55 at the hot corner.

Gallo’s best tool is without a doubt his power, which has the potential to be a 65 or 70 by the time he arrives in the Major Leagues. Last season at Bishop Gorman, he batted .471 with 25 home runs and 76 RBI while posting a 24/17 BB/K rate.  In 2010, Gallo swatted 15 bombs while posting a .474 batting average.

His raw power was on full display this past summer at the Perfect Game All-American Classic at Petco Park where he belted a 442-foot home run – the 10^th longest in the park’s history.  The only knock on Gallo’s potential as a hitter is that, like most young power hitters, he has a tendency to drift and over-commit with his front side which causes his bat to drag.  In turn, he struggles to hit quality offspeed pitches at times.  But when he learns to adjust to such pitches, Gallo’s hit tool has the potential to be about a 60.

On the bump, Gallo’s fastball has already been clocked at 94 mph, and his size suggests there could be more in the tank.  While his arm works well, Gallo is a big, powerful kid, and his mechanics can get a bit inconsistent at times and therefore affect his command.  As for offspeed, Gallo features an above average breaker and a change up that needs some development.

Ranked by Baseball America as the No. 21 prep prospect, Gallo is in a precarious position headed into the 2011 season.  He will be scrutinized until the draft as both a third baseman and pitcher, and disagreement about which position offers a higher ceiling could affect his stock.  What could ultimately happen is something similar to when Kaleb Cowart was drafted 18^th overall by the Angels in 2009 as a switch-hitting third baseman.  If Gallo’s bat never develops at the professional level, he still possesses a potential 60-70 arm that could be utilized on the mound.

If Gallo isn’t drafted favorably he will head to Louisiana State, which, in reality, might not be a terrible idea if his bat and/or secondary offerings need further development.

This week Ryan Braun accepted the National League MVP award amidst perhaps more controversy than has ever before been associated with a postseason award.  Quite obviously Braun has let down a great deal of people if he is indeed proven guilty of knowingly abusing illicit drugs to enhance his performance on the field.  While there is wiggle room within that last sentence to suggest that Braun did nothing wrong even if he is found guilty of abuse, his reputation is forever tarnished.  There is a very realistic chance that his name will be left off of ballots in the future for single season awards as well as Hall of Fame ballots upon Braun’s retirement.

We at The Sombrero certainly side with our generation in retaliation against the tyranny of the elderly BBWAA members, but their hold is not likely to be relinquished for over a decade.  Braun’s ethical failure obviously casts the game in a dark shadow that seemingly has shrouded the game for two decades now, but is there anything positive that young players can take from these years of shame that has bettered the game for the long term?  We think so.

Every time I return home to Farmington for a break from school, I lift on a near daily basis at one of two local gyms on my side of town.  I have never been to either without seeing a teenage player or one in his early 20s working out as well.  Whether these players are professionals home for the offseason, collegiate players home on holiday break, high school kids fresh off of fall or winter practice, club guys on off nights, or middle school kids new to high school athletics and familiarizing themselves with the weight room for the first time, these players all are utilizing reasonably advanced physical training techniques specifically geared toward baseball athleticism.  Rare is it nowadays for any kid to succeed on the field without training on the track or in the weight room both in and out of season.

I am not attempting to suggest that the reason these players are training athletically is an attempt to emulate steroid abusers of today and of yesteryear, but even offseason workouts were less developed in the days before PED abuse.  Watching guys like Jose Bautista and Prince Fielder go very long without prototypical bodybuilder frames should come as encouragement to young hitters.

Prince and Bautista are quite noteworthy for their specific workout regimens within the game, and while neither looks like Jose Canseco did in the late ‘80s, they still represent an end to hard work in the gym.  Both players have had to spend their entire careers attempting to overcome genetic slighting, and they both have done so magnificently.  These players are less of the model and more like today’s young players.  We all spend our lives both fighting and attempting to enhance our own genetic makeup within the game, and the steroid era in baseball, which I prefer to think of as the fitness revolution in baseball, demonstrated the lengths that players can go legally and illegally to do so.

While today’s game is policed much more thoroughly and the rules are enforced far more harshly than in the past, the hard work training in the gym and at the track hasn’t left the game and likely never will.  While we cannot thank steroids for that, we can thank many steroid abusers as well as quite likely many more non-abusers who were forced to train alongside those cheaters simply to share the same field.  Today’s young players carry that desire with them in greater frequency than ever before, and it is very refreshing for former players like myself and the other writers here at The Sombrero.

Editor’s note: If you enjoyed this article, be sure to check out Dee’s other work: Today’s Prospect Landscape: Hitters vs. Pitchers, The Connie Mack World Series vs. Area Code Games, and How Division III Players Become Draft Prospects.

When a reader of The Sombrero commented on our write-up of Bubba Starling, it became apparent that implicit within our rankings, we were making a claim regarding the entire prospect landscape.  After a little reflection about how we could both be somewhat down on Starling and also rank him as high as we did, it was obvious that we were boosting hitters to levels that they might not quite deserve relative to the pitchers they were ranked alongside.

For instance, Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley are found adjacent to Anthony Rizzo and Devin Mesoraco in our rankings.  Skaggs and Bradley both project as #2 arms at worst.  Both are very young as well and have obvious paths to Big League action.  Skaggs might even be a member of the 2012 defending NL West Champion rotation in Phoenix.  Bradley should breeze through the Minors and wind up in a Major League rotation within three years, barring injury of course.  There is simply nothing in the way of these two aces becoming very good Major League contributors on a championship caliber club.  That’s not to say it’s by any means a done deal or even highly likely that this will be the case.

However, the idea is that there are no reasons to expect these two arms to fail in their ascent.  Mesoraco and Rizzo are older than both of the pitchers, both are large-bodied guys who likely are inflexible in terms of positioning, and both have already failed in Major League auditions, although the samples were small and both were rushed to some extent.  Nevertheless, both players are assumed to begin 2012 in Major League uniforms even if Rizzo is not shipped somewhere between now and then.  It’s no secret that we are quite high on both hitters and even higher on Starling, but there are serious flaws apparent in each case, and it is certainly conceivable that they may never succeed in the Show.  Rizzo is a below-the-ball hitter who approaches the hitting zone using a nonlinear approach that takes entirely too much time to barrel up on pitches on the inner half with decent pace.  Additionally, Rizzo plays first base with minimal chance of successfully sliding to a more valuable defensive spot.  The Padres even brought back Yonder Alonso in the Latos deal, effectively dropping Rizzo to second or third on the depth chart at 1B.  Mesoraco has less noticeable flaws, but he still has been injury prone and at-best will probably cap at under 500 plate appearances in a season, a huge reason that the Royals slid Myers away from the dish and the Nats did the same with Harper.

Basically, within the top 20 prospects as well as within the top 50, there is far more to like about the pitchers and far less flaws that might keep them from Big League success.  Even within the top 10, which again features more pitchers than hitters, we really only see Harper with no obvious flaws or roadblocks that might or should keep him from an all-star career.  We see injury, poor stats, and lack of positional flexibility or ability to even be average on D in each case except Harper’s.  Yet with our pitchers we see nothing but elite stuff, elite command, elite makeup, and obvious paths to innings.  Don’t get me wrong, the hitters are elite prospects and deservingly are considered among the top prospects in the game, but why if the pitchers are simply better?

An obvious disparity exists between hitting and pitching prospects collectively.  Pitchers are ahead of hitters by a lot.  What’s more, hitters tend to reach their peak years earlier than pitchers and, therefore, should be ready to contribute at the Major League level before pitchers of the same age.  How should we adjust the values that we apply to prospects in light of this?

In the case of pitchers, it is far easier to assign grades to pitches than it is to, say, hit tool.  Evaluating hit tool requires at least several looks and is far easier to do when a player is facing quality pitching.  Brandon Nimmo went in the first round, but slapping grades on his skills and makeup was far tougher to do than it is for someone like Bradley, who has reached triple digits with his fastball.  Additionally, as professionals, pitching prospects, specifically rotation guys, pitchers only take the rock every fifth or sixth day leaving most of the week to train physically in a relatively low-stress environment.  This has likely never before been such a massive advantage for pitchers simply because of the way PED abuse is policed today.

Entire workouts must be totally altered to accommodate the grueling season and average day of a professional or even collegiate athlete.  Pitchers have a great deal more time to train athletically at high intensity in season than hitters do.  Naturally, we should expect pitchers to be ahead of hitters more so today than ever before if for no other reason than that pitchers should be athletically better conditioned than hitters since hitters (and pitchers) face far greater difficulty abusing drugs than they ever have before.

The NCAA has done professional baseball very few favors, but the incentive for pitchers to enter professional baseball at younger ages is greater than that for hitters and always has been.  As was the case with Rendon and even Harper, the two best offensive prospects in the game who retain rookie status, a hitter must be frequently evaluated and is usually required to display his skills at top showcases and tournaments with and against top clubs and schools…or go to college where that happens nearly every game in top conferences.  Prep pitchers who feature mid-90’s heat will draw cross checkers nearly every start and truly are far less required to show it off against quality opponents.  A 60 fastball is a 60 fastball whether throwing it to Griffey or throwing it to a geriatric patient.  What is a 60 hit tool, though?  Implicit within that grade is a level of consistency that is not necessarily required in the same way with regards to fastball scores.

Additionally, when pitchers are evaluated, the system is far easier to apply.  Fastball velocity? Fastball activity?  Fastball command?  Secondary stuff?  Size? Mechanics? Makeup?  It’s very easy to understand how valuable each of these is relative to each other.  Few successful pitchers can last long in the game if they can’t pitch off of their fastballs due to a lack of pace, action, or command.  Clubs tolerate a lack in effective secondary stuff for years, but can a team tolerate a lack of hit tool in young hitters?  “Not really” should be the answer, but it is far more challenging to ensure that the top hit tools or even potential top hit tools are evaluated as accurately during amateur years.  In addition, clubs tolerate pathetic hitters in exchange for stellar up-the-middle defense.  Jose Iglesias was in many top prospect lists a year ago despite using a wet towel for a bat.  He has virtually no chance of long-term employment as a Major Leaguer at anything more than the minimum because glove-first middle guys simply come cheaply due to a far greater supply than demand.  And yet he still made onto many lists including our own.

The point is that a total reevaluation is required when ranking prospects.  The most important tool in baseball is the hit tool.  It is more important than every other offensive tool by no small margin and more valuable than any pitching tool including fastball velocity.  Consider Robbie Erlin.  While we were quite aggressive with our ranking of Erlin, it had very little to do with his fastball velocity, which is not all that impressive.  Erlin, however, commands his stuff better than any other young pitcher in the game in our opinion and is perfect for his home yard.  Good luck to any hitter who is planning to make a career out of hitting who lacks an average hit tool.  Selling out for pull power still requires the ability to barrel up on mistakes, a tough skill to master if barreling up has proven difficult in the past.  And yet so few players in the Minor League landscape today possess impact hitting ability, let alone middle-of-the-order ability, that it has shifted the balance strongly in favor of pitchers.

Arlo and I attempted to account for this in The Sombrero’s rankings, which is why you see Rizzo and Mesoraco next to Skaggs and Bradley and why you’ll see Machado and Montero next to Gerrit Cole and Julio Teheran.  Which of these do you think we are more confident will achieve Major League success?  Obviously the pitchers, but we think the quality of position players is declining at the Major League level in large part due to the inevitable response of harsher penalties on drug abuse and greater ability to detect when players are abusing PEDs.  With this comes more opportunity for high intensity training for pitchers in season and therefore better results, especially as the season drags on and off-days become more and more necessary.  Baseball is, however, a game of scoring and preventing runs with equivalent value to the team’s collective effort to accomplish both, because a run for is the same as a run against.  Resultantly, we should not find ourselves with a top 10 that includes 9 pitchers and Bryce Harper.  We should more or less have equal amounts of hitters and pitchers.  With today’s prospect landscape, in order to accomplish this a drastic reevaluation of the weights of tools is necessary.