Posts belonging to Category fantasy baseball

May 22, 2010

Jim got engaged!  To a terrific young lady I might add.  Congratulations, buddy!  We’re really proud and excited for you.  Two more engagement shout-outs: first one for our buddy, Kevin (Kev Kong) Wilcox; second one for my dental school classmate/friend and cadaver dissecting partner, Val Sanchez.  Very fun things.

Before I get going with this post, I want to apologize for not posting anything lately.  My finals week lasted about 15 days/nights and was a truly painful experience for everyone involved.  I still am awaiting confirmation that I passed my last two exams, but I did not need to do that well on them to make it to 2^nd year.  I don’t think when I began dental school or even when I was applying that I had any idea what it would actually be like.  Grinnell is a challenging undergraduate institution that consistently ranks among the most extensive in the country in terms of workload.  It did not remotely compare to what was expected of each student at Baylor.  They say the first year of professional school is the most challenging of any student’s career.  I really hope that is the case.

Moving on.  I have tried not to write much about fantasy on this blog because I am fearful of disclosing information that has helped me succeed in previous to my competitors.  The blog comes first now, though, so hopefully none of what I disclose is seen as particularly novel.

This post will center on some recent trades I have completed in my 16-team 7 x 7 (AVG, OBP, SLUG, HR, SB, R, RBI x IP, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB) league that I play in with my friends, many of whom write for the Sombrero.  Before I begin I should mention that I tend to give the team I drafted a month or so of a chance for two primary reasons.  First, it takes approximately 100 plate appearances or so to produce a meaningful set of results capable of evaluation.  Second, this evaluation should help determine a reevaluation of the predraft rankings implicit within are new projections and expectations.  This reevaluation should generate some inefficiencies and potential bargain deals throughout any league.  Hopefully a month into the season every one of your players are playing over-their-heads and producing at unsustainably high levels.  This will inflate their values to the point that they are capable of fetching players ranked considerably higher in the predraft rankings.  A month into the season the rankings that should be taken the most seriously remain those produced prior to the draft because they are based in the most extensive and reliable numbers.  Some players are streaky, and some streak/slump oscillations express periods of a month or longer.  For these reasons, I target May as the month in which I need to work the hardest in fantasy.  This unfortunately coincides with finals and has been hindered more than usual this year.  Nevertheless I have made a few moves that I think will really help my squad, the Heights Knights (named after my 8^th grade basketball team), find their stride and hopefully begin to climb in the standings.

CLAR traded Kevin Youkilis, Bos 3B to A-holes
CLAR traded Nate McLouth, Atl OF to A-holes
CLAR traded Kevin Slowey, Min SP to A-holes
MVW traded David Wright, NYM 3B to Knights
MVW dropped David DeJesus, KC OF to Free Agency
MVW dropped Nick Hundley, SD C to Free Agency

This trade took place in early May and heavily reflects my love for David Wright and very little else.  Simply put, I lost this trade.  Youkilis plays for a better team in a better yard, makes contact more often and has better control of the strike zone, probably more power, is more consistent, and, most importantly, will be an easier guy to move later on.  This final reason is a product of the fact that as the season progresses, Wright’s strikeout totals will likely seem more astronomic by the day.  The Mets are a pathetic organization.  I blame their management and front office entirely for David’s recent and ongoing struggles with contact.  That’s a different subject for a different day, though.  Back to the trade.  Slowey’s command is second to none, and even though he lacks a put-away pitch or above average anything, his ability to locate makes him a serviceable two or exceptional three in any rotation.  In a league like ours that uses IP as a category, Slowey is a horse and will always outperform his 5×5 ranking.  McLouth has not looked like the all-star he was in 2008 because he is not making contact often enough.  He will continue to lose playing time as long as he fails to put the ball in play, but, when near his best, McLouth makes Melky Cabrera look like the minor league journeyman he should be.

Eunuch (MVW) beat me on this trade, but I have David, my favorite player, and I am much happier moving forward now as a result.

TOWL traded Nick Markakis, Bal OF to Knights
CLAR traded Yovani Gallardo, Mil SP to Corporate Towls

This trade was mostly a reflection of our cap on starts.  Essentially three starters should be able to reach the cap (100), and I had five at the time.  Gallardo was my highest ranked according to ESPN, but in our league should have been dropped extensively due to his notoriously high pitch counts and less-than-ace-caliber walk totals.  In standard formats, these are virtually meaningless, but in our league make Yo a 4-category contributor in a 14-category format.

Markakis has been one of my targets since 2006.  His ability to both differentiate balls and strikes as well as center the baseball make him lethal in formats such as ours that utilize both average and OBP categories despite having just 15 to 20-bomb power.  Because OBP is not included in the standard format, Markakis is far more valuable in the Cup than he is according to ESPN.

Budz dropped Kris Medlen, Atl RP to Free Agency
Budz dropped J.J. Putz, CWS RP to Free Agency
Budz traded Billy Butler, KC 1B to Knights
CLAR traded Todd Helton, Col 1B to ChronicL’s
CLAR traded Josh Willingham, Was OF to ChronicL’s
CLAR traded Matt Lindstrom, Hou RP to ChronicL’s

Ty9 traded Carlos Lee, Hou OF to Knights
CLAR traded Billy Butler, KC 1B to POO

These trades happened within hours of each other, so I will treat them as one mega deal in which I move Helton, Willingham, and Lindstrom for Carlos Lee.  A trade like this is only possible if you really know the other managers in the league.  My first trading partner in this deal was Griff.  Griff is after a first-place finish this year, and I know it.  He has produced increasingly higher finishes each year and made it into the top-5 last season for the first time.  In a 16-team league, saves are a big deal.  Not only are there only 30 closers at any time but also a 0 in any category means a lot more when one team is getting 16 and the average team is snagging 8 or 9 from that category.  I find it very hard to envision a first place team getting last or even close to last in the saves category.  A single stable closer (30 saves) for the entire season is probably enough to avoid a catastrophically low saves total, and closers are hoarded in our league as a result.  The effects of this hoarding are an enhanced demand and a reduced supply of saves.  Griff recognized that the longer he waited, the less the return and the higher the cost.  By a stroke of luck, Alfredo Simon, the new Orioles closer was available as well as Manny Corpas making Lindstrom somewhat expendable.

Willingham is another guy who is worth more in our league than in a standard league because of his skill at reaching base, but what some folks have been slow to accept is the quality of the heart of the Nationals order.  Hitting behind Adam Dunn should provide Hammer with a shot at 100 RBI’s.  He has a chance this season to be an all-star and is especially valuable in a platoon.

Todd Helton again is more valuable in our league due to his combination of average and on-base skills.  Jason Giambi is a ridiculous distraction and almost comical nowadays, but he should be eliminated shortly I suspect due to the imminent season-ending injury that surely accompanies 39-year old, fat, steroid abusers.  Griff actually got Helton at a time when his value may be somewhat deflated due to his slow start, and in general this trade is looking as though I came away the loser.

However, I knew if I could just snag Butler that Ty9, a lifelong and diehard Royals fan, would probably give me Carlos Lee in exchange.  Lee has been getting a lot of bad publicity recently because of his slow start, but the guy can take every square inch of the zone 450 ft.  I saw his slow start as an obvious opportunity to buy low on a guy that has a 3-year mean OPS over .880 and a 5-year average of 31 dongs/season.

Everyone other Tyrone won this one.

Bob dropped Mike Adams, SD RP to Free Agency
CLAR traded David Ortiz, Bos DH to of Shelley
CLAR traded Chris Coghlan, Fla OF to of Shelley
Bob traded Carlos Pena, TB 1B to Knights

As noted earlier, I have a tendency to fall in love with certain players.  Carlos is one of those guys for me.  I have never had him on my team.  He is clearly underperforming right now, but has shown the ability to stay inside and above the ball with good lower body action in the last week or so against good arms.  The ball Gardner took away was an excellent swing, and the next night Carlos went deep twice.  I love him and rolled out the red carpet this morning for him.

I’m a Coghlan believer.  I think his mechanics at the plate allow him to handle almost all pitches even though they probably are good for no more than fifteen jacks/season.  As everyone has always known about Coghlan, his skills play better at 2B than at a COF spot.  Not going to happen with Uggla on 40-jack pace.  Still, Coghlan should be around a .300 hitter the rest of the way while walking at a respectable clip.

Papi is so tough to evaluate right now.  Sometimes he looks as good as ever, and sometimes he looks like he could go 0-for a beer league game.  This suggests that Papi is guessing and cheating his hands at the plate to compensate for either reduced pitch deciphering abilities, reduced bat speed, injury, or a combination of the three.  I suspect that I may have moved him at the perfect time, and while I have normally been a fan of Papi, the failed PED test was a big turnoff for me.  Considering I plucked him off of waivers a week before this deal, it was easy to pull the trigger.

I am very satisfied with these trades and the way my team is looking.  This has been one of my more successful Mays, and, with the addition of luck, health, and a few more quality moves, it should put me in position to challenge for my first title.

The current Knights:

After a most unpredictable and exciting first week and a half of the Major League Baseball season, I’ve noticed a trend that has become all too clear to GMs and fantasy owners alike.  They wish that they had Joe Mauer and his sweet, sweet 1.167 OPS%.  During the off-season, Mauer and the Twins inked a 8yr/$184mil contract that essentially made him a Twin for life.  Yes, that is an obscene amount of money, but why not?  Who wouldn’t shell out the big bucks for a 6’4”, 5-tool, left-handed hitting catcher? However, Mauer’s greatness also brings to light a vast discrepancy in the quality of catchers across the league.  In both the AL and NL Central, there are too many teams receiving little or no production from their catcher(s).  Yes, I know that it’s early in the season and I sympathize with how constricting and relenting the cold can be, but I am not surprised by the specific catchers that are struggling.  Some have been over-hyped while others have fallen victim to the minors.  Some are just too old.  I guess that what I’m really trying to say, is that I’m sure Brad Ausmus is feeling pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good about being on the DL to start the season .

NL Central
Cubs:
Should we really attribute Geovanny Soto’s highly disappointing 2009 campaign to the “sophomore slump,” or do the Cubs have a greater problem on their hands?  Soto’s slow start to the current season is reminiscent of his slow start last season that ultimately resulted in a .218/.321/.381.  Entering Wednesday, Soto was just 2-for-15(.133) with no extra base-hits and three walks.  The Cubs don’t seem to have the patience that they did last year with Soto; Koyie Hill was given consecutive starts on Thursday and Friday in lieu of Soto’s lack of production.  In those two games Hill went 1-for-6 (.167), which means that Cubs’ catchers are hitting a combined .143.  But wait, it gets worse.  Neither Soto or Hill have an extra base hit and neither have tallied an RBI.  In 2008, Soto carried the Cubs on his back into the postseason and it seems as though he will need to do so again this year.  On a personal note, Soto is the skidmark on my fantasy team; he’s really making me look an asshole for expecting immediate results.

Astros:
As Griff alluded to in his previous article, this is going to be a painful year for the Houston Astros.  Rather than trying to solve any of their offensive deficiencies, the Astros deemed it best to sign RP Brandon Lyon to a 3yr/$15mil contract. After trying to produce a homegrown catcher for the better part of a decade(with minimal success), when do you give up?  Apparently, not quite yet.  Former top prospect J.R. Towles was given the opening day nod(by default) and has done nothing to prove that he deserves it.  Prior to Wednesday’s games Towles was 1-for-16(.063) and yet to draw a walk.  Towles initial struggles prompted the Astros to mix in Humberto Quintero, who has only responded by hitting .111.  Much like the Cubs, the Astros’ catchers are yet to drive in a run and seem highly unlikely to do so with any consistency.  I’m tired of seeing them play catcher roulette every season.  On the bright side, Jason Castro is lurking in the minors and seems destined to assume the catching duties at some point this season.  For the sake of Asros’ fans, let’s just hope that it is sooner rather than later.

• Over the past three seasons, former teammate and catcher for my high school team, Jon Fixler, has given himself a name within the Astros organization.  Currently playing for the Lexington Legends(A), Fix reached Chorpus Christi(AA) last season after showing continual improvements and an ability to adapt to each level.  I also recently learned that he has a blog, through the Astros, where he reflects on his Minor League experiences.

Brewers:
Is it me, or are the Brewers just reusing and recycling veteran catchers?  With Jason Kendall’s reign of terror over Milwaukee complete, I would have liked to seen the Brewers stray from the path of employing another old, irrelevant catcher.  But of course, they signed Greg Zaun.  It could have gotten really crazy had the Cardinals not resigned Jason LaRue for the season.  Headed into Wednesday, Zaun’s 0-for-18 with two walks has been a black hole in an otherwise productive, Brewer lineup.  In an effort to ignite the lower third of the lineup Ken Macha has given George Kottaras increased opportunities to step up.  Kottaras has produced a .167/.250/.167 line that just screams, “Eat your heart out J.R. Towles!”

AL Central

Indians:
Where is Jake Taylor when you need him?  Although, at his age, I suspect that his level of production would rival those of Zaun and Kendall. That would have to be better than the Indians’ atrocious Marson/Redmond tandem, right?  Marson entered Wednesday’s action rocking a dismal .077/.143/.077, which makes Redmond’s .182/.250/.273 seem acceptable.  If you didn’t know already, the Tribe is just laying low before they unveil their coveted, catching-phenom Carlos Santana.  I’m really excited for that to happen, whenever it does, but for the time being, rough.

Tigers:
I’m going to go relatively easy on Gerald Laird because I still think he is a great, overall catcher.  However, he doesn’t have to report to me with that .056 batting average.  It is clear that Tigers are scheming over their catching situation based upon their choice to include Alex Avila on the opening day roster.  In his 69 career at-bats with the TIgers, the 22 year-old Avila has posted an impressive .910% OPS.  Avila could be a nice fantasy addition within the next couple weeks for those that have any of the players I just hacked into.

Working the waiver wire; who wants to worry about that?  Not many people work the waiver wire correctly.  Too often I hear people talking about, “Oh I don’t need to worry about that.  My guys are doing just fine.”  Or, “Who could there possibly be that is better than anyone I have on my bench already?”  Sure, you might not need a guy, but why not take a flyer once in a while?  Find a guy on a hot streak to replace that cold bat.  Or how about finding that arm for a quality spot start?
Working the wire is all about timing.  More often than not, if you are willing to take a risk, an educated one, it pays off big time.  Me, I have three different times where I try to use the wire to my advantage; spot start SP’s, a bat due for a good streak, or just to horde a guy before anyone else in my league can grab him.  Let’s take a look at spot starts.
Spot starting a pitcher is an excellent way to take advantage of quality matchups to help boost your pitching stats.  Before I go grab just anybody off the wire though, I always check trends.  The first trend I check is the pitcher’s home/road splits.  Don’t check just for the current season though.  Make sure to view career trends.  Obviously, the larger the sample size, the more accurately you can make your decision.  I like to use Baseball-Refernce.com for this.  They have a vast amount of data that can be used for just about anything you want.  If a guy has a huge difference in is home/road splits, let’s say road for this example, then take a look at his next couple of starts.  Who is he facing?  Where is the game played?  If you like who the pitcher is going against, i.e. the Pirates, take a look at line-ups.  How many lefties/righties is he facing?  What are the pitcher’s splits there?  Also, I recommend taking a look at what the pitcher has done over the past two-three years.  Two years ago, I was able to grab Cliff Lee off the wire after two starts.  Most people in my league laughed, and told me he was a fluke.  What they forgot to recognize was that only two years prior, Cliff Lee was being called a future Cy Young candidate by scouts.
What about hitters?  How do you find the guy that nobody is talking about?  I like to take a bit more risk with these type of guys, because if it doesn’t work out, so what.  It’s not like you’re losing much if you drop a guy from your roster that never plays.  Once again, I like to take a look at the next three or four pitchers that said hitter is facing in the coming days.  What type of success rate has he had over his career versus these guys?  I especially like to look at a hitter’s isolated power in this scenario.  That tells you a lot about how often the guy squares up balls, and that is the most important.  Even if he has a multitude of K’s, I am always willing to take a chance if the majority of balls hit are hit hard.  I also always take a chance on a guy riding a hot streak.  He’s 9 for his last 15?  Fuck yea I can find a spot on my bench for that guy the next few days!
The last reason I like to scour the wire is a simple one.  I want to prevent the other teams from getting something that I could potentially have.  Even if he just sits on my bench and I don’t record his stats, at least I know that nobody else is going to either.  This comes in handy late in the season when a few SB’s or RBI’s means trading spots in the standings.  Once again, don’t be afraid to subscribe to the theory of, “Even if I get nothing out of this guy, I didn’t lose anything in the player I dropped to clear roster space.”
All in all, working the wire can turn out to be pretty fruitless.  I easily make more than 100 transactions a year.  I may only keep a guy for a day and turn around and drop him for the guy he replaced the previous day.  With bench players, there is never a reason to fret over dropping them.  Most importantly, don’t be afraid to take a risk.  So go out there, find that diamond in the rough, and turn it into a thing of beauty.  One.