Posts belonging to Category 2012 MLB Draft Preview

In a previous post I commended San Francisco’s Kyle Zimmer for his standout career both as a student and as an athlete and suggested that he also will fall in the first half of round 1 come June, so I felt as though I should follow that up with a brief scouting report.

Zimmer has a prototypical pitcher’s frame at 6-foot-4 with lengthy limbs.  He is an excellent athlete and often receives better grades for athleticism than for anything else, a terrific sign given the fact that he has had to learn pitching on the fly.  He did not go to the University of San Francisco to pitch but rather as an infielder, but his arm is so strong that eventually he was bound to wind up on a mound even as simply an experiment.

Zimmer has added a lot of extension and length to his delivery and is far more solid in back than he was early in his pitching career, exactly what one expects from a converted infielder or catcher.  Quality deliveries require enough length to provide the time necessary to reach a repeatable release point from a healthful slot.  Zimmer definitely has a delivery now that allows him to do that.  He has been up to 99 mph this spring already and could throw up a triple-digit readout at any time.  With a potentially triple-plus fastball and some polish to his delivery, he immediately shoots into the one-one conversation.

His secondary stuff is behind the fastball, but not nearly as far as it could be given how little time he has spent on the mound thus far.  His curveball (we are only considering the sharper and quicker version even though he has used a loopier one in the past as well) already is a 50 pitch, and his changeup, while fringy now, has shown enough promise to assume that it will always be useable and will always be improving.

He commands the ball well to both sides of the plate, and his numbers back up his projectability.  He has filled out a lot in his time with USF (around 220 lbs. now), but he probably still has some development left in him as well.  His changeup has already looked better in his spring starts than it did on the Cape, and he has used his tighter bender more frequently as well.  All of this shows Zimmer’s propensity to listen and react to criticism.  Zimmer’s makeup is off of the charts, and I like him a lot more than other righties in the 1-1 conversation right now.

Joey Gallo is a physically strong, 6-foot-5, 205-pound, CI/RHP from Bishop Gorman HS (NV).  One of the elite bats in the 2012 draft class, Gallo possesses power to all fields with exceptional pull-side power.  However, it’s not just the left-handed hitter’s bat that intrigues scouts – Gallo also has potential on the mound.

With a low-90s arm across the diamond, scouts will continue to debate whether Gallo is more projectable as a position player or pitcher.  Given his 6-foot-5 frame, he has impressive athleticism and exhibits natural defensive actions at third base.  However, he isn’t an elite defender and will probably never grade higher than a 55 at the hot corner.

Gallo’s best tool is without a doubt his power, which has the potential to be a 65 or 70 by the time he arrives in the Major Leagues. Last season at Bishop Gorman, he batted .471 with 25 home runs and 76 RBI while posting a 24/17 BB/K rate.  In 2010, Gallo swatted 15 bombs while posting a .474 batting average.

His raw power was on full display this past summer at the Perfect Game All-American Classic at Petco Park where he belted a 442-foot home run – the 10^th longest in the park’s history.  The only knock on Gallo’s potential as a hitter is that, like most young power hitters, he has a tendency to drift and over-commit with his front side which causes his bat to drag.  In turn, he struggles to hit quality offspeed pitches at times.  But when he learns to adjust to such pitches, Gallo’s hit tool has the potential to be about a 60.

On the bump, Gallo’s fastball has already been clocked at 94 mph, and his size suggests there could be more in the tank.  While his arm works well, Gallo is a big, powerful kid, and his mechanics can get a bit inconsistent at times and therefore affect his command.  As for offspeed, Gallo features an above average breaker and a change up that needs some development.

Ranked by Baseball America as the No. 21 prep prospect, Gallo is in a precarious position headed into the 2011 season.  He will be scrutinized until the draft as both a third baseman and pitcher, and disagreement about which position offers a higher ceiling could affect his stock.  What could ultimately happen is something similar to when Kaleb Cowart was drafted 18^th overall by the Angels in 2009 as a switch-hitting third baseman.  If Gallo’s bat never develops at the professional level, he still possesses a potential 60-70 arm that could be utilized on the mound.

If Gallo isn’t drafted favorably he will head to Louisiana State, which, in reality, might not be a terrible idea if his bat and/or secondary offerings need further development.

With the fall baseball season in full swing nationwide and the WWBA championships coming to a close in Jupiter, FL, it seems fitting to discuss a prospect who perhaps has the most to gain or lose out of anyone in the months leading up to the June draft.  Stanford SS Kenny Diekroeger is arguably the best athlete in this year’s college crop.  He is basically a 60 across the board player in the “athlete” tools as well as with the glove.  He has all of the tools necessary to be a key up-the-middle contributor with a very good chance to be average at short or plus at second.  Diekroeger will have three years at Stanford under his belt come June and that combination of tools and experience should mean a very high selection in the draft, right?  Not necessarily.

Diekroeger posted a .293/.364/.356 slash line for the Cardinal in 2011 after .356/.392/.491 line as a freshman.  Many have used the new bat regulations to explain this drop in production.  I think there is more to it.  Kenny’s bat speed is easily at least plus, but he creates very little loft with his swing mechanics and produces entirely too many GB’s because his hands drop as he loads.  For most belt-high pitches and above (easily within the NCAA strike-zone) Kenny is a below-the-ball hitter.  This is not necessarily an easy fix, and it could be a problem that he will fight the rest of his days on the diamond.  It’s not necessarily as though he will ever be a bad hitter with his current mechanics, but he cannot be elite with them either, and with a frame as large as the one he currently has, sliding to third or the outfield is a real possibility.  An average or below hit tool on a 60 runner is not a first round player in many organizations’ opinions, and Diekroeger has potentially millions to gain from improved bat track and mechanics this year.

Diekroeger fails to transfer all of his weight and tends to close his lower half off as well.  This is usually an easier fix than the bat track issues, but is much tougher to do when also attempting to correct upper body flaws.

The PAC-12 is loaded with strong pitching this season, and Diekroeger will be able to prove (or not prove) that he is deserving of the top-10 talk that he was receiving after his freshman year as opposed to the late first round or early compensation round talk that he began receiving after his numbers softened up in 2011.  Diekroeger might very well be the second infielder off of the board in 2012 behind ASU SS Deven Marrero, but he also could end up falling behind several prep kids too like Gavin Cecchini.

As a student of the Texas A&M Health Science Center, and in celebration of the Aggies making it to Omaha, today I will write up likely 2012 first-rounder Michael Wacha, the ace of the Aggie staff now that John Stilson is injured.  Also, a good buddy of mine from class is a neighbor of the Wacha family, and they sound like tremendous people.

Wacha is a big righty with great mechanics and an easy-higher ¾ arm slot.  His delivery is clean and repeatable, and he is on top of every pitch with good downward action that generates a lot of grounders, especially for a fastball/changeup guy.  His fastball, which can reach the mid-90s but typically sits a few mph’s less, is a little on the flat side for a true 60 grading, but the downward action he develops from his delivery allows it to overcome this flatness to an extent.  His changeup is a no-doubt 60 today with great fade and a chance to tick up still.  His breaking ball is less of a finished product and will require some time, but he is athletic enough and repeats a quality delivery well enough that he should develop it into a solid-average 3^rd pitch.  What’s more, his slot likely will allow him to generate enough depth with it to get botch sides of the plate out once he learns the feel of it.

Wacha had dynamite numbers for the Aggies this season with a 2.12 ERA in 18 starts with 118 K’s and only 28 BB’s, beating surefire first-rounder prior to injury Stilson in both regards.  The Big XII had some outstanding squads this season, and those numbers should be taken very seriously.  We at the Sombrero are way in on Wacha and think he will be a very big riser in the next year possibly challenging to be the first arm off the board out of the Big XII.