{"id":730,"date":"2010-08-07T18:52:52","date_gmt":"2010-08-07T23:52:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/?p=730"},"modified":"2010-08-07T18:52:52","modified_gmt":"2010-08-07T23:52:52","slug":"that-adam-laroche-so-hot-right-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/archives\/730","title":{"rendered":"That Adam LaRoche, So Hot Right Now"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>If you could use one word to describe Adam LaRoche, what would it be?\u00a0 For those that have had him on their fantasy team, I\u2019m sure that you chose the correct answer, \u201cstreaky.\u201d\u00a0 For the record, I would have also accepted \u201chack-taker,\u201d as well as \u201cpain-in-the-ass,\u201d and of course, \u201cbrother.\u201d\u00a0 To those fantasy owners who are unfamiliar with the LaRoche,<\/em> he can be summed up like this: when he\u2019s hot, he\u2019s hot, and when he\u2019s not, he\u2019s\u2026absolutely brutal.\u00a0 Year after year, LaRoche\u2019s M.O. remains the same: a slow starter who has a mediocre first half, followed by a blistering July and August, and ultimately finishes with respectable statistics.\u00a0 Similarly, year after year, those familiar with the Diamondbacks\u2019 first baseman are left asking, what if?\u00a0 What if LaRoche finally rakes for an entire season?\u00a0 What if he finally cuts down on the strikeouts?\u00a0 As somebody who has extensively watched him play this season, I have realized that there will always be recognizable potential in a player who gets his hacks in.\u00a0 That is why there always seems to be a surprising amount of fantasy owners, who target LaRoche as an ideal, late-round sleeper.\u00a0 This year, I was one of them.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

What if you didn\u2019t land one of the premier first baseman that you had deliberately sculpted your draft around?\u00a0 Rather than sacrificing the rest of your draft strategy for a player at a deep position, it may make more sense to pursue a first basemen like a LaRoche, or a Russell Branyan, or a Lyle Overbay \u2013 or a Phil Nevin if you\u2019re feeling particularly nostalgic- with a late round pick.\u00a0 Much like his fellow mashers, LaRoche has been an advocate of the \u201cswing-as -hard-as-I-can-and-see-what-happens\u201d hitting philosophy, since his days with the Braves.\u00a0 He is a hacker, and his success on any given day depends on his patience at the plate and his overall comfort level on the field.\u00a0 If we take a look at LaRoche\u2019s<\/a> monthly splits for the 2010 season, and compare them with the monthly splits for his career, there are certain trends that may help fantasy owners predict when LaRoche might get hot.<\/p>\n

Due to the fact that LaRoche is perennially slow out of the gate, I was pleasantly surprised when my UTIL hitter posted a .954 OPS with 16 R, 4 HR, 17 RBI, and a 19\/11 K\/BB ratio in April.\u00a0 I\u2019ll admit it: I temporarily got my hopes up, foolishly thinking that I might be the beneficiary of LaRoche\u2019s career season.\u00a0 This is exactly how one falls victim to the LaRoche Paradox- <\/em>once you have had a taste of a surging Adam LaRoche, you feel compelled to start him every day, hoping that he will have one of his famous multi-home run, 5 RBI games.<\/p>\n

To avoid this trap, it is essential to remember that LaRoche\u2019s monthly totals are ultimately defined by both the intensity and duration of his hot and cold streaks.\u00a0 For instance, from April 26-29, LaRoche hit .462(6\/13) with 5 R, 2 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, and 2\/3 K\/BB.\u00a0 Does his production in those 3 games outweigh all of the 0-fers and 1-hit games that he turned in that month?<\/p>\n

Similarly, it is also vital to focus on a hitters BAbip<\/em>(batting average on balls in play), especially when trying to put a player\u2019s early season success in perspective.\u00a0 In the season\u2019s opening month, LaRoche produced a mediocre .354 BAbip<\/em>. \u00a0I use the term mediocre here because with so many uncontrollable variables within the first month of a baseball season\u00a0 – pitcher\u2019s durability, weather, and injuries, to name a few- every hitter\u2019s BAbip<\/em> will be skewed to an extent.<\/p>\n

As his high, BAbip<\/em> in April foreshadowed, LaRoche\u2019s production trailed off in May, and he finished with a .788 OPS, 16 R, 3 HR, 16 RBI, and 30\/13 K\/BB.\u00a0 As always, he managed to sneak in a hot streak- just as his fantasy owners had sworn off playing him- that ultimately accounted for a healthy portion of his monthly totals.\u00a0 Over the course of May 15 \u2013 May 22, LaRoche hit .464(13\/28) with 10 R, 3 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI and 3K\/3BB.\u00a0 Considering that he struck out 30 total times in the month of May, and that we know he only struck out 3 times during his hot streak, I believe it\u2019s safe to say that LaRoche did a lot of swinging and missing during the rest of the month.\u00a0 His torrid stretch during the third week of May produced a misleading .333 BAbip <\/em>for the entire month.\u00a0 The fact that he had a .500+ BAbip<\/em> during his May hot streak, yet had just a .333 BAbip<\/em> for the entire month, speaks volumes about his ever-fluctuating discipline and patience at the plate.<\/p>\n

LaRoche\u2019s significant regression in both June and July made them make or break months for his fantasy owners.\u00a0 Although his home runs and RBI in June were on par with his typical monthly totals, LaRoche\u2019s overall production regressed to the tune of .698 OPS, 9 R, 5 HR, 20 RBI, with a 30\/9 K\/BB ratio and a .266 BAbip<\/em>.\u00a0 To ensure that his fantasy owners remained indecisive and generally frustrated, LaRoche put together two different hot streaks within June: one vs. the Cardinals and one vs. the Yankees.\u00a0 In the June 11-13 series vs. the Cardinals, LaRoche hit .456(6\/13) with 2 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, and a 4\/1 K\/BB.\u00a0 Then, in the June 21-23 series vs. Yankees, LaRoche hit .2xx(3\/11) with 2 R, HR, 8 RBI and a 2\/2 K\/BB ratio.<\/p>\n

In July, LaRoche\u2019s regression continued, as he posted his worst statistics for any month in the 2010 season: .670 OPS, 9 R, 2 HR, 11 RBI, a 25\/4 K\/BB ratio, and a .328 BAbip.<\/em> It was a hectic month for both LaRoche and the entire Diamondbacks organization, as it was littered with internal changes, blockbuster trades, and even more trade rumors.\u00a0 One could argue that due to the internal unrest and speculation within organization, LaRoche was unable to establish any rhythm at the plate, let alone put together a hot streak.<\/p>\n

Even though his numbers were far lower than anybody would have liked, LaRoche\u2019s July really shouldn\u2019t have been all that disconcerting.\u00a0 Considering that he is a player whose success is defined by streaks, and that he has a propensity to have a monstrous second half, fantasy owners should have simply stashed him on their bench.\u00a0 Despite it seeming far more logical to either trade or drop LaRoche, his late season production has the potential to propel any fantasy team up in their league\u2019s standings.<\/p>\n

As I alluded to earlier, LaRoche was put on this planet to play baseball in August.\u00a0 With a career line of .947 OPS, 80 R, 30 2B, 31 HR, 94 RBI in the month, August always provides the potential for LaRoche to redeem himself in the eyes of his fantasy owners; it\u2019s like he knows that he has some making up to do.\u00a0 In addition to his superb power numbers, LaRoche has a career .353 BAbip <\/em>in August, a mark that can be directly attributed to his 119\/59 K\/BB ratio- which seems other-worldly compared to the previously mentioned 25\/4 ratio that he posted last month.<\/p>\n

This August has been no different.\u00a0 Since flipping the calendar, LaRoche has gone 13-27(.481) with 7 R, 2 2B, 3B, 4 HR and 8 RBI and a .565 BAbip<\/em>– good for a 1.556 OPS. <\/em>In 6 games this month, he has nearly matched his power totals from the previous month, and is on pace for the most productive month of his 2010 season.\u00a0 Even though there is a chance that LaRoche may be traded to a contender before the end of the month, I would not expect it to negatively influence his production for the rest of the year, and suggest keeping him in your fantasy lineup.\u00a0 If you would rather not risk a LaRoche cold spell, now would be an ideal time to trade him while his fantasy value is arguably as high as it\u2019s been all year.\u00a0 If you prefer to hang on to him and play the match ups, here is a preview of the Diamondbacks\u2019 schedule for the remainder of August:<\/p>\n

August 6-8 vs. Padres<\/p>\n

August 9-12 @ Brewers<\/p>\n

August 13-15 @ Nationals<\/p>\n

August 17-19 vs. Reds<\/p>\n

August 20-22 vs. Rockies<\/p>\n

August 24-26 @ Padres<\/p>\n

August 27-29 @ Giants<\/p>\n

August 30-31 vs. Padres
\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If you could use one word to describe Adam LaRoche, what would it be?\u00a0 For those that have had him on their fantasy team, I\u2019m sure that you chose the correct answer, \u201cstreaky.\u201d\u00a0 For the record, I would have also accepted \u201chack-taker,\u201d as well as \u201cpain-in-the-ass,\u201d and of course, \u201cbrother.\u201d\u00a0 To those fantasy owners who […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[76,6,16,11,13,14],"tags":[393,509,485,670,669],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/730"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=730"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/730\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":734,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/730\/revisions\/734"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=730"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=730"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=730"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}