{"id":65,"date":"2010-03-26T05:19:15","date_gmt":"2010-03-26T10:19:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/?p=65"},"modified":"2010-05-09T04:41:02","modified_gmt":"2010-05-09T09:41:02","slug":"the-next-ryan-braun-by-daniel-dee-clark","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/archives\/65","title":{"rendered":"The Next Ryan Braun?"},"content":{"rendered":"
March 26 , 2010<\/div>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

After spending a couple of weeks with Stephen Strasburg<\/strong> this spring, Nyjer Morgan<\/strong> decided to nickname him, \u201cJesus.\u201d\u00a0 It seems nowadays like every organization, especially those in dire need of a savior, tout their young prospects as though they will one day absolutely be middle-of-the-order smashers with Ozzie\u2019s skills at whatever positions they play or frontline aces in the Roy Halladay<\/strong> mold.\u00a0 Consider these names: Dominic Brown, Justin Smoak, Buster Posey, Desmond Jennings, Brian Matusz, Yonder Alonso, Dustin Ackley, Aroldis Chapman, Jason Heyward<\/strong>, etc.\u00a0 Any club in baseball would\/should want any and all of these players.\u00a0 Remember these names, however, Cameron Maybin, Alex Gordon, Brandon Wood, Delmon Young, Fernando Martinez, Homer Bailey<\/strong>, etc?\u00a0 It\u2019s easy to understand what drives such lofty expectations with young talent.\u00a0 When was the last time the Yankees put a decent amount of stock into what any rookie might accomplish?\u00a0 Joba does not count.\u00a0 Desperate and poorly funded teams tend to spend a lot more time praying than those who can so easily write massive checks.\u00a0 It\u2019s almost as though the first mention of a talented player\u2019s careful development and steady promotion leads to Ryan Braun-esque expectations.\u00a0 Ryan Braun<\/strong> is obviously not on the second list nor do I truly think any player in the minors will one day be as good as Braun is now.\u00a0 Justin Upton<\/strong> may grow into a similar type of player.\u00a0 Maybe.\u00a0 Of all the prospects mentioned, there are three who I think will be all-stars within 5 years.\u00a0 The others are destined for mediocrity for one reason or another.\u00a0 Strasburg is in a different class altogether.\u00a0 He will be Josh Beckett<\/strong>.\u00a0 We won\u2019t consider him.<\/p>\n

The three of interest are Buster Posey<\/strong>, Desmond Jennings<\/strong>, and Jason Heyward<\/strong>.\u00a0 Why these three?\u00a0 They walk and make contact.\u00a0 Both Jennings and Heyward walked as many times as they fanned last season, and Posey was not far off.\u00a0 These players all possess outstanding athleticism, but in baseball all that truly translates to when young is the ability to learn positions quickly in order to get to the big squad sooner.\u00a0 Exceptional talent means something different in baseball.\u00a0 This is not the NFL.\u00a0 Morons who can run fast and jump high do not necessarily translate into all-stars.\u00a0 Athleticism never hurts, but it only goes so far in understanding what to expect from rookies.\u00a0 In 2007 the folks at Baseball America, right before Braun exploded onto the National League scene, ranked Cameron Maybin 20 places ahead of Ryan Braun.\u00a0 How could they have missed by so much?\u00a0 Simple.\u00a0 Bad teams and bad scouts place way, way too much stock into athleticism.\u00a0 Baseball America is certainly quite reputable, but they tend to see the game as it was and not so much as what it is and what it could be.\u00a0 Would Cameron Maybin have a better NFL career than Ryan Braun? Likely.\u00a0 So what?\u00a0 Big fastballs and fast 60\u2019s mean nothing in the minor leagues and the big leagues.\u00a0 What does?\u00a0 Baserunners.\u00a0 Posey, Heyward, and Jennings already know how to do the most important thing in sports.\u00a0 Getting on base.\u00a0 Strasburg already knows how to prevent this.\u00a0 His fastball\/slider combo is dazzling, but the single aspect of his collegiate stats that stand out the most is his otherworldly K\/BB ratio.\u00a0 For baseball purposes, it may make more sense to simply consider it infinity and move on.\u00a0 Sign them all up now.\u00a0 Or wait if you have no interest in winning (Braves and Rays).\u00a0 Either way, when these players do begin their big league careers (Posey\u2019s dozen or so AB\u2019s in September excluded) they will continue to do the things they did in the minors.\u00a0 Play baseball with the realization that first base is the new plate.<\/p>\n

I told a friend in lab today that I would talk a little about the Rangers in my next post since I\u2019m living in Dallas now.\u00a0 As I don\u2019t want to give the impression that I have anything serious against Baseball America<\/strong><\/a>, I will make mention of the fact that they have given Texas the top organizational review for the second consecutive season.\u00a0 They are absolutely right on in doing so.\u00a0 Texas has talent in every position, and for the most part it tends to be young.\u00a0 Their farm system is as stocked as any in the game except possibly Tampa.\u00a0 All this being said, they are essentially a lineup of question marks.\u00a0 I project it to look something like this whenever Ron Washington gets off the cocaine and moves Nelson Cruz up in the order.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Julio Borbon<\/li>\n
  2. Michael Young<\/li>\n
  3. Josh Hamilton<\/li>\n
  4. Vladimir Guerrero<\/li>\n
  5. Ian Kinsler<\/li>\n
  6. Nelson Cruz<\/li>\n
  7. Chris Davis<\/li>\n
  8. Elvis Andrus<\/li>\n
  9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia\/Taylor Teagarden<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    It should look like this:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Michael Young<\/li>\n
    2. Josh Hamilton<\/li>\n
    3. Ian Kinsler<\/li>\n
    4. Nelson Cruz<\/li>\n
    5. Vladimir Guerrero<\/li>\n
    6. Chris Davis<\/li>\n
    7. Elvis Andrus<\/li>\n
    8. Catcher<\/li>\n
    9. Julio Borbon<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      There is injury risk top to bottom here, and not very many of these guys have truly demonstrated the ability to get on base all that frequently, but they have ungodly thump here and easily the best lineup in the AL West.\u00a0 The rotation is worse, but why would a team build around arms in Arlington?\u00a0 Even so, young guys like Neftali Feliz<\/strong> and Derek Holland<\/strong> possess considerable upside, and Martin Perez<\/strong>, likely the best pitching prospect the Rangers have had this decade, is not too far away from arrival.\u00a0 These guys catch the ball very well, and the addition of Borbon in center will only prevent more runs.\u00a0 The Mariners made a lot of improvements this winter, and the Angels are still the team to beat, but I personally think the West will be very tight, and I expect these three teams to be very active in the trading market in June and July.\u00a0 I think the Rangers have a slight edge if everyone is healthy.\u00a0 Maybe by a game or two.<\/p>\n

      I just want to give a shout to young Grinnellian rightfielder, Paden Roder<\/strong>.\u00a0 His slashes right now read .440\/.559\/.840.\u00a0 The Ivy League-bound senior has had quite a career for the Pioneers<\/strong>.\u00a0 Let\u2019s wish Paden and the other Pioneers a strong finish in Florida free of injuries and full of sun and W\u2019s.
      \n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      March 26 , 2010 After spending a couple of weeks with Stephen Strasburg this spring, Nyjer Morgan decided to nickname him, \u201cJesus.\u201d\u00a0 It seems nowadays like every organization, especially those in dire need of a savior, tout their young prospects as though they will one day absolutely be middle-of-the-order smashers with Ozzie\u2019s skills at whatever […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7,15,6,11,13,10,14],"tags":[54,56,60,63,55,59,62,53,58,65,64,51,66,67,52,57,42,61],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":202,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65\/revisions\/202"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}