{"id":3377,"date":"2011-03-29T08:30:17","date_gmt":"2011-03-29T13:30:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/?p=3377"},"modified":"2011-03-29T12:18:33","modified_gmt":"2011-03-29T17:18:33","slug":"my-denslow-cup-draft-explanation-of-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/archives\/3377","title":{"rendered":"My Denslow Cup Draft: Explanation of picks"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Last Tuesday evening was the annual Denslow Cup draft.\u00a0 Luckily I was back home in Farmington so that Griff and I could get together and drink some beers and eat some BBQ courtesy of my mom and buddy\/Sombrero enthusiast, Benji.\u00a0 The Cup\u2019s draft day is one of my favorite days of the year, and this was absolutely no exception.\u00a0 I was totally amped all day and could barely hold my hand still to click the mouse to select my first pick.\u00a0 As usual, we played in a 7 X 7 league with R, RBI, BA, Slug %, OBP, SB, and HR as our offensive categories and W, SV, WHIP, ERA, K\u2019s, K\/BB, and IP as our pitching categories.\u00a0 We have tried to incorporate stats we view as essential to Big League success such as K\/BB and OBP in an effort to discourage profiting from players who don\u2019t contribute proportionately to their actual teams.\u00a0 Anyway, I wanted to present my team, the Milk Steak Knives (named after both the Cup\u2019s founder, Robert Vincent Unsell, and Charlie Kelly\u2019s favorite dish), to our readers and offer some justification for my picks.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

1st<\/sup> Round (7th<\/sup> overall): David Wright<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

David is my favorite player.\u00a0 He contributes across the board, and while his contact percentage and BB\/K ratio have been in decline ever since they decided to rebuild the Polo Grounds in New York, he offers .300\/.400\/.500 upside with 20 SB and 30 bomb potential while playing a premium position.\u00a0 Evan Longoria<\/a><\/strong>, Robinson Cano<\/a><\/strong>, and Troy Tulowitzki<\/a><\/strong> were already off the board, however, and I would have taken any of the three ahead of David had they fallen to me.\u00a0 Nevertheless, I am proud to have David anchoring my offense for another season.<\/p>\n

2nd<\/sup> Round (18th<\/sup> overall): Dustin Pedroia<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pedroia is one of those players who are so much better in an OBP league, that it is almost impossible to get his ranking correct before the draft.\u00a0 Fortunately, he fell to me in the second.\u00a0 Pedroia has MVP upside and plays a premium position.\u00a0 In a league that counts OBP, he is probably the top 2B on the board.\u00a0 With a contact ratio likely to top 90% and a BB\/K above 1, he very well might have the top hit tool grading in the American League.\u00a0 With 20\/20 potential, I absolutely was sweating as my pick approached in the second round.\u00a0 Two infield spots knocked out in the first two rounds.\u00a0 Well on my way to the Cup.<\/p>\n

3rd<\/sup> Round (31st<\/sup> overall): Jose Bautista<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

This was a very tricky pick, but I think I got it right.\u00a0 Around this time most managers had at least an infielder, and many were beginning to pick up their second.\u00a0 The top starters were off the board for the most part, and a couple of catchers had even been selected.\u00a0 This is why I tried to take premium guys at premium positions early; it allows me to draft the best player available whenever the other drafters notice that they are devoid of infielders.\u00a0 In the same round, Adrian Beltre<\/a><\/strong>, Ian Kinsler<\/a><\/strong> and Aramis Ramirez<\/a><\/strong> were selected.\u00a0 Bautista probably won\u2019t approach 50 jacks again<\/a>, but he has a damn good shot at 40.\u00a0 He has a very good eye and gets on base at a great clip.\u00a0 He has a shot at 100 RBI and 100 R, and he very well might steal 10 bases.\u00a0 The reason I was so thrilled to get him, though, is because now I have the resources to dictate the trade market on a premium position, because I have 2 of the top-4 third basemen in the game and they might hit 80 jacks between them.<\/p>\n

4th<\/sup> Round (42nd<\/sup> overall): Jayson Werth<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Once again, I was able to take the best player available without giving a lot of thought to his position. \u00a0Werth moved to a tough hitters\u2019 park and is coming off of a career year.\u00a0 He\u2019s on the wrong side of 30 and only made contact in 73% of his AB\u2019s in 2010, but what the rest of the Denslow Cuppers must have missed in letting this force fall to the 4th<\/sup> round is the tremendous strides he made against right-handers last season.\u00a0 He actually hit .300 against them, up from .256 in 2009, which is close to his career average.\u00a0 Considering that he hits lefties arguably better than anyone else in the game, and is a strong enough athlete to likely hold off the decline for a year or two longer, I was thrilled to be able to take another strong outfielder with my fourth pick.\u00a0 I have a hunch this is going to be my strongest pick of the draft.\u00a0 He has tremendous on-base skills and a very good shot at a .900 OPS (.875 in \u201909 and .919 in \u201810).<\/p>\n

5th<\/sup> Round (55th<\/sup> overall): Jimmy Rollins<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Jimmy is my favorite shortstop.\u00a0 I love what he does on the defensive end.\u00a0 I love that he played in the WBC, although we clearly mismanaged that situation letting Jeter log as many innings there as he did.\u00a0 Rollins, as a former NL MVP, has as much upside as anyone in the game, and after two tough seasons, came very late for a player of his caliber.\u00a0 Specific reasons to love this pick are the small but steady gains Jimmy has made in his contact ability over the last five years as well as the career high 1.25 BB\/K he posted in 2010.\u00a0 I really think that 20 bomb\/30 SB upside is realistic, and a .300 BA is possible with those eye and contact numbers. \u00a0Hell, with a 1+ BB\/K and a 90%+ contact ratio, a .400 OBP is to be expected, although I am counting on a little regression there.<\/p>\n

6th<\/sup> Round (66th<\/sup> overall): Cole Hamels<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Starting pitching was unusually deep this year, so I was planning to hold off on it until after I had filled up my 2B, 3B, and SS spots.\u00a0 After selecting Jimmy, I was very glad to see Hamels available in the 6th<\/sup>.\u00a0 Aside from shitty run support in 2010, Hamels had a banner year with 211 K\u2019s in 209 IP\u2019s and 3.5 K\/BB.\u00a0 The Phillies will open the season as a good offensive team and will only get better as Chase Utley<\/a><\/strong> and Placido Polanco<\/a><\/strong> get healthy.\u00a0 I see no reason to expect anything worse than Cole\u2019s 2010 numbers considering he is still only 27.\u00a0 He should be a terrific anchor to my staff.<\/p>\n

7th<\/sup> Round (79th<\/sup> overall): David Price<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Price throws too many fastballs to miss enough bats to reach 200 K\u2019s at this point in his career, but he is ace-caliber on a very good team and still only 25-years-old.\u00a0 There is little reason, aside from an innings spike in 2010, to assume anything worse than 185 K\u2019s, 15 W\u2019s, and sub-4.00 ERA.<\/p>\n

8th<\/sup> Round (90th<\/sup> overall): Billy Butler<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Wow.\u00a0 I almost couldn\u2019t believe Butler made it 90 picks into the draft.\u00a0 This one is really easy.\u00a0 87% contact rate, 0.88 BB\/K, and 24-years old.\u00a0 I\u2019m expecting a small power gain getting him to 20 jacks with a .310 average, .385 OBP, and 480 Slug%, which make him a force in our league and hands-down the best pick of the 8th<\/sup> round, unless Yovani reaches 15 wins with a sub-3.00 ERA.<\/p>\n

9th<\/sup> Round (103rd<\/sup> overall): Francisco Rodriguez<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Time to grab a closer, and with his contract, I don\u2019t see him losing his job in the 9th<\/sup> inning at any point in 2011.\u00a0 In fact, after Heath Bell<\/a><\/strong> and Brian Wilson<\/a><\/strong>, I viewed K-Rod as the safest closer option headed into the draft.\u00a0 Also, before he lost his mind, 2010 was a terrific rebound season for him with over 10 K\u2019s\/9 and 3 K\u2019s\/walk.<\/p>\n

10th<\/sup> Round (114th overall): Torii Hunter<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Torii is on the decline, but he is still a terrific offensive player who is going to likely provide a .280 BA with 20-25 jacks, 10 SB\u2019s, around a .350 OBP and .450 Slug%.\u00a0 If he can get to 600 AB\u2019s, which is not very likely, he has 25 bomb, 15 SB, 100 RBI, and 100 R upside.<\/p>\n

11th<\/sup> Round (127th overall): Nick Markakis<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

At this point in the draft, I noticed that I pretty much flock to the same core of players most years.\u00a0 Pedroia, Jimmy, Wright, Hamels, and Markakis are on my team at some point just about every season.\u00a0 Markakis is not very likely to develop into the 30-jack COF everyone thought he would become when he was 22.\u00a0 However, what he is at 27 is a guy capable of a .300\/.375\/.475 slash line with 100 R and 100 RBI upside.\u00a0 This kind of pick in the middle round is the kind that wins leagues.<\/p>\n

12th<\/sup> Round (138th overall): John Axford<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Axford is another relatively safe closer, although his spring has done very little to reinforce that notion.\u00a0 His control is certainly not top-shelf, but his fastball is blazing and he struck out over 10 guys per 9 IP in 2010.\u00a0 The goal with closers in a 12-team league should be to snag a great one relatively early and a middle-tier and lower-tier one with upside.\u00a0\u00a0 Checkmark by the second of the three.<\/p>\n

13th<\/sup> Round (151st overall): Colby Lewis<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Lewis had a quietly awesome year in 2010.\u00a0 He struck out 8.6 guys per 9 IP and only walked 2.6.\u00a0 He plays in a terrible pitching environment, but is going to get an absurd amount of run support.\u00a0 He plays in an organization that encourages starters to work deep, and there is a quality guy at the back of the pen to hold on to leads.\u00a0 Lewis has a chance to move into the upper echelon of AL SP\u2019s in 2011.\u00a0 Also, I had to draft at least a Ranger or the people I sit by in school would have been bummed.<\/p>\n

14th<\/sup> Round (162nd<\/sup> overall): James Shields<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

14th<\/sup> round for Shields?\u00a0 Yes, please.\u00a0 The dude is front-line on one of the best teams in baseball.\u00a0 In a horribly unlucky 2010, Shields posted a 5.18 ERA with almost 8 K\u2019s per 9 IP\u2019s and only 2 walks.\u00a0 He\u2019s awesome and came remarkably late for someone of his caliber.\u00a0 He could very well end up being the best pitcher on my staff.\u00a0 Also, he is only 29.<\/p>\n

15th<\/sup> Round (175th<\/sup> overall): Joel Hanrahan<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Here is my third closer.\u00a0 The upside is definitely there.\u00a0 He is having an awful spring, but he struck out 12.9 guys per 9 IP\u2019s in 2010 and posted nearly a 4.0 K\/BB.\u00a0 That is top-tier stuff, but he will have to throw up some zeroes in April to prevent Evan Meek<\/a><\/strong> from wiggling into the mix for saves in Black and Yellow Land.<\/p>\n

16th<\/sup> Round (186th<\/sup> overall):\u00a0 Neil Walker<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Walker has 25-bomb upside, but he probably isn\u2019t at that level yet.\u00a0 However, he provides me a lot of flexibility on the trade market as well as some security in case Pedroia has lingering issues from his injury last season, although it is not looking like he does.\u00a0 Regardless, Walker is a 2B with pop who hits in the good part of the lineup, even if it is for the Pirates.<\/p>\n

17th<\/sup> Round (199th<\/sup> overall): Dexter Fowler<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Fowler has tremendous on-base skills and speed.\u00a0 He has yet to put it all together, but he is only 25, and he plays in Colorado.\u00a0 At this point in the draft, my team is not very fast, so I was happy to grab Fowler this late.<\/p>\n

18th<\/sup> Round (210th<\/sup> overall): Nate McLouth<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

McLouth was one of the best outfielders in baseball in 2008.\u00a0 He nearly had a 25\/25 season while hitting over .275 and posting nearly an .850 OPS.\u00a0 He was traded to Atlanta in 2009, and he really sucked.\u00a0 He is having a tremendous spring and is no longer playing for Bobby Cox, so he essentially has a fresh start.\u00a0 If McLouth begins the season looking like he did in 2008, I might be able to swing a deal for one of my starting outfielders thereby opening up a spot in my lineup for McLouth.<\/p>\n

19th<\/sup> Round (223rd<\/sup> overall): Scott Baker<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Baker always posts a terrific K\/BB ratio and plays for a good team, but he never seems to put it all together.\u00a0 Nevertheless, he had a terrific spring and locked down his job in the rotation in Minnesota.\u00a0 This is not the kind of arm that should be available in the 19th<\/sup> round, so I was stoked he fell to me.<\/p>\n

20th<\/sup> Round (234th<\/sup> overall): Carlos Ruiz<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ruiz is almost always my catcher in any league that counts OBP.\u00a0 He has 90% contact ratio and 1.00 BB\/K upside and enough lift in his swing to launch 10 to 15 jacks.\u00a0 He is very stable and won\u2019t hurt me anywhere.<\/p>\n

I am very satisfied with my team headed into Opening Day and don\u2019t see any glaring weaknesses anywhere.\u00a0 I hope everyone else has\/had as much with their draft\/drafts as we Denslow Cuppers do with ours.\u00a0 Good luck in 2011!<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last Tuesday evening was the annual Denslow Cup draft.\u00a0 Luckily I was back home in Farmington so that Griff and I could get together and drink some beers and eat some BBQ courtesy of my mom and buddy\/Sombrero enthusiast, Benji.\u00a0 The Cup\u2019s draft day is one of my favorite days of the year, and this […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[15,76,1300,6,11,13,10,14],"tags":[340,558,347,1099,1507,616,334,2029,2033,612,103,173,2032,1823,146,496,410,451,411,332,2031,580,337,297,278,353,549,2030,177],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3377"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3377"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3377\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3388,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3377\/revisions\/3388"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}