{"id":3106,"date":"2011-03-02T13:58:45","date_gmt":"2011-03-02T19:58:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/?p=3106"},"modified":"2011-03-02T19:57:42","modified_gmt":"2011-03-03T01:57:42","slug":"some-outlandish-predictions-for-2011","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/archives\/3106","title":{"rendered":"Some Outlandish Predictions for 2011"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Mark Twain is responsible for popularizing the Sir Charles Wentworth Dilke quote, \u201cThere are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”\u00a0 As someone who bases many of his opinions on statistics, I could not agree more.\u00a0 I could take any player, along with any different combination of stats, and come up with two different opinions on that player.\u00a0 Anyone who has ever manipulated statistics to benefit their own argument knows exactly what I am talking about.\u00a0 But what about the other times, when you come to an opinion that has no logical basis other than you just feel it?\u00a0 Deep down inside your gut you have an inkling, an instinct that something will happen.\u00a0 There is no real rhyme or reason behind this belief.\u00a0 Most of the time when you mention these beliefs to friends they call you crazy, or some synonym of loco.\u00a0 The beauty of these types of beliefs is that when they become a reality, when you have used only your gut instinct to defy the laws of statistical analysis, it is a thing of beauty.\u00a0 I can honestly say that there is no better feeling in the world.<\/p>\n

When I was 11-years-old, living in Houston, I told anyone who would listen how the Rockets were going to win it all.\u00a0 They defied all odds, coming back from a 2-0 deficit in the first round to defeat the Jazz, then coming back from a 3-1 deficit to eliminate the Suns, and finally sweeping Shaq and the Magic in the Finals to win it all; all while becoming the first team in NBA history to defeat four 50-win teams en route to winning an NBA title.\u00a0 What does this have to do with the 2011 baseball season though?\u00a0 At 11-years-old, I had no idea what statistics could be used for.\u00a0 I knew nothing about backing up an opinion with logical information.\u00a0 I was freaking 11-years-old!\u00a0 But, somewhere deep down inside I knew, I just knew, that my Rockets were not going to lose a playoff series that year.\u00a0 Maybe it was because they had the heart of a champion.\u00a0 Maybe not.\u00a0 Either way, I made a gut call about sports and it miraculously came to fruition.<\/p>\n

Long story short, that premise is the central idea for this article.\u00a0 In the upcoming weeks you will find a myriad of articles around the web talking about people\u2019s bold predictions.\u00a0 Most of these predictions have some sort of stat to back them up.\u00a0 Not me.\u00a0 I am here to give you some truly outlandish predictions that have no evidence to support them other than I \u201cfeel\u201d like it will happen.\u00a0 This is not about me trying to predict the future correctly.\u00a0 This is about finding that 11-year-old inside of me who just believed.\u00a0 This is about having some fun and enjoying letting my imagination run wild with the endless possibilities of what could happen in a baseball season that has yet to start.\u00a0 So, without further ado, here are my outlandish, completely unwarranted, and instinct-based predictions for the 2011 Major League Baseball season.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

1.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Manny Ramirez<\/a><\/strong> will finish the year with 30 HR\u2019s, 100 RBI, and an average on the right side of .300<\/strong>.\u00a0 To some the glass is half empty.\u00a0 Manny is going on 39, and had problems with the Dodgers and White Sox.\u00a0 For me, the glass is half full.\u00a0 Manny has something to prove.\u00a0 He probably only has one more productive season in his tank.\u00a0 He is now playing for maybe the coolest manager in all of baseball.\u00a0 He has one of the greatest, natural swings anyone in baseball has seen.\u00a0 I might be hoping to catch lightning, but I think Joe Maddon can be the Ben Franklin at the end of the kite string.<\/p>\n

2.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Mark Melancon<\/a><\/strong> will end the season with 20 saves<\/strong>.\u00a0 Most people don\u2019t even know who he is.\u00a0\u00a0 He was traded to the Astros from the Yankees in the Lance Berkman<\/a><\/strong> deal.\u00a0 In 2004, as a freshman at the University of Arizona, I was fortunate enough to play with Mark, who was also a freshman that year.\u00a0 He has filthy stuff, coming from almost straight over the top. \u00a0He throws a heavy ball that is routinely in the mid 90s.\u00a0 He handled the closer role, as a freshman in the Pac-10, with ease, earning a save in the College World Series that year even after I woke him up at 4 a.m. drunk and unable to get myself into the hotel room.\u00a0 He was touted as a possible closer with the Yanks, the Astros are banking on Brandon Lyon<\/a><\/strong> (LMFAO at that one), and I played and partied with the guy.\u00a0 I think he takes over right after the break and never looks back.<\/p>\n

3.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The<\/strong> New York Mets are unable to pay their players\u2019 salaries after the All-Star break<\/strong>.\u00a0 The impending lawsuit makes it to court, where the Wilpons lose and are offered a choice: they can pay out the $1 billion or hand over complete ownership of the Mets to the plaintiffs.\u00a0 After handing over ownership the new owners embezzle any and all of the second $25 million loan from MLB and leave the country\u2026all without paying any salaries.<\/p>\n

4.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The Baltimore Orioles finish ahead of the Yankees in the AL East<\/strong>.\u00a0 The new lineup should benefit nicely from the hitter-friendly confines of Camden Yards.\u00a0 Brian Matusz<\/a><\/strong> is set for his first of many dominating seasons.\u00a0 I would really love to see the Yankees not make the playoffs after the way that the young Mr. Steinbrenner has handled himself in the media recently.\u00a0 I don\u2019t think the baseball gods will look fondly upon him.<\/p>\n

5.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The Tampa Bay Rays will win the AL East by at least 10 games<\/strong>.\u00a0 Everybody seems to think that the Red Sox have it in the bag already.\u00a0 As mentioned above, the Yankees won\u2019t be competing.\u00a0 Even with the enormous turnover the Rays went through this off-season, they still have Evan Longoria<\/a><\/strong>, Manny, David Price<\/a><\/strong>, and many others.\u00a0 Also, they have Joe Maddon.\u00a0 The guy knows how to turn a baseball team into winners.\u00a0 He has them wearing the coolest jackets ever<\/a>, and they just have a knack for proving people wrong.\u00a0 Also, they will want to prove to the people of St. Petersburg that they are deserving of a new stadium.<\/p>\n

6.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Tim Lincecum<\/a><\/strong> becomes the first pitcher since Jake Peavy<\/a><\/strong> to win pitching\u2019s Triple Crown<\/strong>.\u00a0 The dude is stupid good.\u00a0 He creates more energy than any pitcher in the game, so he will be in the top 3 for innings pitched, which will allow him to lead MLB in strikeouts and ERA. (It doesn\u2019t hurt that he has devastatingly nasty stuff that creates swings and misses.)\u00a0 I say he wins 24 games this year because he is pissed about having one horrendous month last year.\u00a0 To celebrate, he will bring a box of finely rolled Swishers and share them with his fans.<\/p>\n

7.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Major League Baseball decides to do away with revenue sharing in the next CBA<\/strong>.\u00a0 Because of people\u2019s disgust with the Pirates turning a profit despite the 18th<\/sup> losing season in a row, other owners will vote that no team shall be allowed to ride the coat tails of others.\u00a0 It only takes one bad apple to spoil the bunch, and the Pirates are that apple.\u00a0 Seriously, how can they think that there is something good to come from constantly trotting out an obviously inferior product, yet still be allowed to line their pockets with other team\u2019s hard earned cash?<\/p>\n

8.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The Houston Astros will win 80 games<\/strong>.\u00a0 We all know that I am a devout Astros fan.\u00a0 We all know that when you are counting on Carlos Lee<\/a><\/strong> and Hunter Pence<\/a><\/strong> to bring home the bacon, things are not going to be good.\u00a0 However, every year the Astros defy the run differential statistic and outperform their projections.\u00a0 Many people have them projected for less than 70 wins.\u00a0 Not me.\u00a0 I think Wandy Rodriguez<\/a><\/strong> wins 21 games, Melancon saves 20 games, Pence hits 30 bombs, Brett Myers<\/a><\/strong> has a quality start every game he starts, for the entire season, and Bourn figures out how to get on base at a .375 clip-stealing 65 bases and scoring 110 runs in the process.\u00a0 We pull off the miracle of all miracles and make a run at a wild card berth after Drayton sells the team at the break.\u00a0 If the previous predictions are outlandish, this one is straight off the charts crazy.<\/p>\n

9.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Prince Fielder<\/a><\/strong> will hit 45 jacks this year<\/strong>.\u00a0 I must have some sort of soft spot for big \u2018ol fat kids.\u00a0 I have the Kung Fu Panda as a great sleeper pick<\/a>, and now this?\u00a0 Prince rakes, is playing for a new contract, and is playing for a team that can compete for a pennant.\u00a0 To be honest, I am handcuffing myself at 45.\u00a0 I think he has a legitimate shot at 50.<\/p>\n

10.\u00a0 The<\/strong> MLB Amateur Draft in June will see a high school player from my home state of New Mexico taken in the top 20 picks, and he will be the first catcher taken off the board\u2026overall<\/strong>.\u00a0 Blake Swihart, Cleveland High School\u2019s senior catcher, rakes.\u00a0 He lead Team USA 18-U in every significant offensive category last summer.\u00a0 He hits from both sides of the plate with true power from each side.\u00a0 The state of New Mexico has not seen a prospect touted like this since Shane Andrews.
\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mark Twain is responsible for popularizing the Sir Charles Wentworth Dilke quote, \u201cThere are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”\u00a0 As someone who bases many of his opinions on statistics, I could not agree more.\u00a0 I could take any player, along with any different combination of stats, and come up with two […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7,1300,17,8,6,9,11,13,10,14],"tags":[624,1913,209,1912,1796,1907,111,1909,616,173,1910,201,1911,1230,827,202,736,1906,206,193,719,242,580,71,548,773,1908,549,196,188,205],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3106"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3106"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3106\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3112,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3106\/revisions\/3112"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}