{"id":2805,"date":"2011-02-03T11:16:08","date_gmt":"2011-02-03T17:16:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/?p=2805"},"modified":"2011-02-03T11:18:29","modified_gmt":"2011-02-03T17:18:29","slug":"will-2011-be-billy-butlers-breakout-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/archives\/2805","title":{"rendered":"Will 2011 be Billy Butler’s “breakout” season?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Everyone has a vice.\u00a0 If you\u2019re like me, you have multiple vices.\u00a0 My favorite vice, fantasy baseball, is right around the corner, so I just couldn\u2019t help but look for some interesting angle to write on in January.\u00a0 Analysis of off-season moves are done by, well everyone.\u00a0 Rankings and season previews are more of a spring-training time piece.\u00a0 Writing about the shittiness of any one of my Houston Astros\u2019 players value (except Mr. Bourn and WayRod, duh) is pointless for so many reasons.\u00a0 So what does that really leave a guy with in January?\u00a0 How about a little head-to-head action\u2026by position.\u00a0 I\u2019m not talking about looking at the top guys at each position, but rather the guys in those second \u2013 possibly third if you\u2019re in a deep league \u2013 tier guys that can really make or break your draft and season.\u00a0 Over the next week and a half, I will take a look at a couple of guys from each position and see how they match up versus their higher drafted counterparts.\u00a0 As per usual, any ideas, thoughts, or beliefs (both supporting and opposing) are welcomed.<\/p>\n

First base is a rather deep position this year with Joey Votto<\/a><\/strong> emerging as the hitter many have seen coming, Adrian Gonzalez<\/a><\/strong> getting to trade Petco for Fenway, Prince Fielder<\/a><\/strong> heading into free agency after the season (I\u2019m a sucker for a guy playing for a new, mega-sized contract), as well as your standards like Ryan Howard<\/a><\/strong>, Miguel Cabrera<\/a><\/strong>, and Mark Teixeira<\/a><\/strong>.\u00a0 If you are not fortunate enough to secure one of those guys, then whom do you take a flier on?<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Billy Butler<\/a><\/strong>: 24 years old (Turns 25 before the season starts) <\/strong><\/p>\n

2010 slash: .318\/.388\/.469 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Bill James 2011 Predicted Slash: .307\/.377\/.476<\/strong><\/p>\n

I feel that I have to put Butler here because he continues to be an intriguing case.\u00a0 For one, I was a Butler owner last year who was disappointed by his power outage.\u00a0 Secondly, he is just 24-years-old and (gulp) hopefully entering a breakout year before he reaches his prime.\u00a0 For starters let\u2019s just remind ourselves that Butler has the likes of Kila Ka\u2019aihue, Jeff Francoeur<\/a><\/strong> (Yes, this Jeff Francoeur<\/a>) to provide protection in the Royals Lineup this season, and because of this, there is an automatic notch off of Butler\u2019s production.\u00a0 But enough with the obvious.\u00a0 Let\u2019s take a look at some stats and see what we can gleam about \u2018ol Billy\u2019s future.<\/p>\n

The big knock on Butler has been the lack of power he has shown in the bigs.\u00a0 In the minors Billy raked, and not just with doubles.\u00a0 He was able to get the ball to leave the yard at a staggering rate<\/a>. Now after watching some film, I think that to regain and maintain his 30+ HR potential for an extended length of time, he needs to make a slight adjustment to his swing.\u00a0 But 25 bombs a year is still nice to go along with a .315 average.\u00a0 But can Billy keep this average?\u00a0 He has an uncanny ability for being able to hit gap-to-gap (thus all the doubles) so that is a nice start.<\/p>\n

Looking at his BABIP for 2009 and 2010 gives me reason for concern.\u00a0 In \u201809 he had a BABIP of .332 (apprx. 32 points above the league average) and a .341 (apprx. 41 points above the league average) BABIP in 2010.\u00a0 However, this high rate can be explained by his average Z-Contact% of 90.7%. When a pitch is in the strike zone, Butler rarely swings and misses.\u00a0 Top that off with an average O-Swing% of 25.4 and you have a recipe for success; don\u2019t swing at bad pitches and don\u2019t miss good pitches.\u00a0 This definitely suggests that Butler can sustain a batting average of over .300 for an extended period of time.<\/p>\n

While a .300+ avg. is nice, it is not enough to be a solid fantasy first baseman.\u00a0 What about his RBI production?\u00a0 (I know, RBI is a worthless stat that in no way shape or form helps recognize the skill of said player, but it is a stat measured in almost every single fantasy baseball league.\u00a0 Ever.<\/em>)\u00a0 I think with the addition of Alcides Escobar<\/a><\/strong> (projected .300 OBP) to go along with Chris Getz<\/a><\/strong> (projected .333 OBP) at the top of the Royals lineup, Butler might have a shot to reach the 100 RBI plateau for the first time in his young career.\u00a0 It will probably be closer to the 90-92 RBI, but he still has a legitimate shot.\u00a0 Looking only at batting average and RBI, these stats are quite comparable to Miguel Cabrera<\/a><\/strong>.\u00a0 Let\u2019s look at another power stat, one that I put a lot of value on\u2026ISO power.<\/p>\n

In 2010 Butler\u2019s ISO power was a paltry .151.\u00a0 This is especially rough considering that just a year before it was .191.\u00a0 This would explain the drop in HR production from 2009 to 2010, although I am definitely looking for this to rebound to around that .190 range.\u00a0 Again, this is not what it needs to be for 30+ HR potential, but it should be enough for him to produce around 20-25 jacks.<\/p>\n

And what about his ability to draw walks?\u00a0 Among all eligible 1B with at least 475 PA last season, Butler ranked 6th<\/sup> in walks and posted a career high 10.2% BB rate.\u00a0 This shows that his eye is maturing.\u00a0 Match that with a BB\/K ratio of 0.88 and you are talking about a guy who is going to get on base.\u00a0 His OBP from last year was .388 and has been climbing each year since becoming an everyday player in 2008.\u00a0 Again, this screams volumes about the maturation of his eye and overall approach at the plate.<\/p>\n

So let\u2019s look at what we have on our hands with Billy Butler<\/a><\/strong>.\u00a0 We have a guy entering his 4th<\/sup> season as an everyday player, at the age of 24-turning 25.\u00a0 We have a gap-to-gap hitter that showed excellent HR production in the minor leagues. He is a 1B with the skill set and ability to post: .320 BA, 25 HR, 100 RBI, .380 OBP.\u00a0 If we look at other first basemen throughout the league, Butler\u2019s potential puts him alongside guys like Justin Morneau<\/a><\/strong>, Kendry Morales<\/a><\/strong>, and Adrian Gonzalez<\/a><\/strong> (if you are willing to trade 35 BA points for 13 HR\u2019s).\u00a0 If you ask me, Billy Butler<\/a><\/strong> is not a bad option at first base in deeper fantasy leagues.<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Everyone has a vice.\u00a0 If you\u2019re like me, you have multiple vices.\u00a0 My favorite vice, fantasy baseball, is right around the corner, so I just couldn\u2019t help but look for some interesting angle to write on in January.\u00a0 Analysis of off-season moves are done by, well everyone.\u00a0 Rankings and season previews are more of a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[76,1300,17,6,9,11,13,14],"tags":[436,1531,340,1766,813,201,590,388,490,302,1756,1765,499,464,773,681],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2805"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2805"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2805\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2820,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2805\/revisions\/2820"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2805"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2805"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2805"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}