{"id":2721,"date":"2011-01-27T12:57:01","date_gmt":"2011-01-27T18:57:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/?p=2721"},"modified":"2011-01-27T12:59:04","modified_gmt":"2011-01-27T18:59:04","slug":"jose-bautista-was-2010-a-fluke","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/archives\/2721","title":{"rendered":"Jose Bautista: was 2010 a fluke?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Merriam-Webster defines a fluke as a stroke of luck.<\/em> As a self-proclaimed fantasy nerd, I am always on the lookout for guys who I think might have had a fluky season.\u00a0 It does not matter to me if the season in question was a positive or negative; I just want to know if a player is destined to continue down the same path as the previous year, or if his numbers for the next season are going to regress back toward the norm.\u00a0 With that being said, let\u2019s take a look at two guys that have left tons of fantasy players wondering, \u201cwas last year a fluke?\u201d<\/p>\n

He was Major League Baseball\u2019s home run leader in 2010 despite never previously hitting more than 16 home runs in a single season.\u00a0 He touched up baseballs with the ferocity of an early Mike Tyson.\u00a0 His name is Jose Bautista<\/a><\/strong> and is the most obvious choice for this article.<\/p>\n

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Let me first state that based on the very little video I have been able to watch on him, I think that his power is for real.\u00a0 I love that he is able to keep his hands high and above the ball when entering the hitting zone.\u00a0 His bat speed is also top notch.\u00a0 These two factors alone make me believe that Bautista has 40-homer potential, although I think that he finishes the 2011 season with around 35.\u00a0 So what do his stats suggest about all this?<\/p>\n

One of the first numbers that I noticed was Bautista\u2019s ridiculous .357 ISO last season.\u00a0 Before 2010 he never had a season with an ISO higher than .185.\u00a0 Every ball he hit last season went for extra bases.\u00a0 Seriously.\u00a0 Now consider this- Bautista had a BABIP of .233 last year, almost 70 points below the league average<\/em>.\u00a0 Another number that caught my eye was his .378 OBP.\u00a0 While drawing a total of 102 walks (only 2 of which were intentional) last year, he also struck out a career high 116 times.\u00a0 All I can think of here is that it\u2019s fucking bizarre how a hitter can set a career high in K\u2019s and still set a career best in OBP and BB\u2019s.\u00a0 Seriously, wtf?<\/p>\n

Overall, here is what I think of Jose Bautista<\/a><\/strong>.\u00a0 First, I think there is no way in hell he hits 50 bombs this year.\u00a0 I think that he has the mechanics and the bat speed to generate legit power numbers once again, but not 50.\u00a0 I also expect his ISO numbers to take a large step backward.\u00a0 I see him being somewhere in the .250 to .260 range.\u00a0 His BABIP stands to rise by about 50 points and settle in at around .280 to .285 next year.<\/p>\n

Now, logic tells us that his batting average should rise due to this, but I just can\u2019t buy into that.\u00a0 I am basing this solely on what appears to be his new feast or famine approach and realize that I am going against the very numbers that I use to support my hypotheses.\u00a0 Seeing such a dramatic rise in K\u2019s just gives me a hunch.\u00a0 One final note about Bautista. Last year he had a .995 OPS, and I think that he produces an OPS this year somewhere around .860.\u00a0 Still not too shabby, if you ask me.<\/p>\n

So, was Jose Bautista<\/a><\/strong>\u2019s 2010 season a fluke?\u00a0 Absofuckinglutely.\u00a0 Anyone who argues otherwise probably has beachfront property for sale in Nebraska, too.\u00a0 But I do think that he has the skill set and swing to be very productive, and his numbers depict a story that says something similar.\u00a0 Considering that Bautista will be 30 this season, I think that it\u2019s reasonable to expect slashes of .265\/.370\/.510, as well as 37 home runs, 98 RBI, and 90 runs scored.
\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Merriam-Webster defines a fluke as a stroke of luck. As a self-proclaimed fantasy nerd, I am always on the lookout for guys who I think might have had a fluky season.\u00a0 It does not matter to me if the season in question was a positive or negative; I just want to know if a player […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1300,17,6,11,13,14],"tags":[1736,1737,411,454],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2721"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2721"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2721\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2724,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2721\/revisions\/2724"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/thegoldensombrero.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}