The hitters in the Arizona Fall League haven’t been kind to Matt Purke.  After allowing an earned run over two innings in his AFL debut on October 15^th, the left-hander has surrendered 10 earned runs over his last inning and a third.

Making his first start against Surprise on October 21^st, Purke couldn’t escape a disastrous first inning. He allowed seven runs on five hits and walk, and managed to record only one out.  He followed it up with another brutal appearance nearly a week later in a relief appearance against Mesa.  Although Purke successfully made it through the inning, he still gave up three earned on four hits.

Just as it was towards the end of last season following several months of arm problems, Purke’s stuff has been flat this fall, and the 2010 velocity that once garnered No. 1 overall pick consideration is nowhere to be found.

According to Amanda Comak of The Washington Times:

Purke faced eight batters, he retired one. The one out he did get was a rocket high and deep to right field — but foul — that Phillies’ right fielder Tyson Gillies ran down and leapt for. He threw 22 pitches — 12 balls, 10 strikes — and fell behind to almost every single batter he faced. He walked one, Kansas City’s Wil Myers, on four pitches and hit another, Atlanta’s Todd Cunningham. His velocity reached 92 once but sat mostly in the 89-91 range and he didn’t seem to have great feel for his breaking stuff.

Sure Purke hadn’t faced hitters—let alone quality ones—since last spring before pitching in the AFL, but he has immediately emerged as the pitcher that no team wanted to touch with a 20-foot pole last June.

Here is some video of Purke during his breakout, red-shirt freshman season at TCU in 2010:

And here’s a video of Purke warming up before to his first AFL appearance:

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As the collegiate baseball season continues to pick up steam, we at the Sombrero think it’s time to examine some recent events that will inevitably shake up the 2011 draft landscape.  Prior to the start of the 2011 NCAA season, Anthony Rendon of Rice was widely regarded as the top talent in the 2011 Draft.  With a double-plus hit tool grading and power to spare, Rendon profiles as a middle-of-the order hitter on any team in Major League Baseball.  Because of his eye, which grades at least a 60, and ability to barrel up the baseball, Rendon will have a very short stint in the Minors before debuting with whatever club drafts him in June.  His glove grades at plus, and there has never been any reason for concern regarding his ability to stay at third, his position at Rice.

What does cause reason for concern, however, is Rendon’s ankle, which he severely injured last summer with Team USA.  This most recent injury is not the first injury to Rendon’s ankle, and he has spent some time at DH this season as a precautionary measure.  Rendon must demonstrate that he can play third on a daily basis this season to justify the top overall ranking headed into the draft.  Everything about his stats at Rice this season suggest that he is the same old Anthony at the dish, but this is not the year to select a player with injury concerns with the first overall selection.  The talent is simply too deep for that.

However, there really is only one collegiate position player who will even draw the slightest interest from the Pirates at the #1 spot, and he is University of Connecticut outfielder George Springer.  Springer has insane tools, but is not nearly as polished as Rendon at the plate, and will take considerably longer to reach his full potential despite possessing a potentially higher ceiling.

Many scouts now view UCLA ace Gerrit Cole as the top talent available.  Cole has outstanding numbers through the first month of the season, and many scouts think he could be successful in the Big Leagues today.  Reports of triple-digit fastballs and double-plus secondary pitches are beginning to warrant the Stephen Strasburg comparisons.  Signability issues exist with Cole, however, and his refusal to sign with the Yankees out of high school was highly publicized.

A draft-eligible sophomore who many after the 2010 season thought could challenge for the top overall selection is TCU’s Matt Purke.  Purke has had a somewhat pedestrian spring so far relative to the borderline unprecedented success he experienced in his freshman season, however.  The lefty has missed time due to a blister and experienced a dip in velocity.  Saturday night saw Purke work in the 88-92 mph range, and despite striking out 11 UNLV hitters, that velocity simply is not enough to justify the top selection at this point.  When at his best, though, Matt Purke is perhaps the finest amateur pitcher in the United States.

Another pitcher, who many still view as a longshot to move into the #1 overall discussion, is Vanderbilt ace Sonny Gray.  Gray has the best pitch in the draft in his triple-plus breaking ball and a fastball that has reached 97 mph.  His delivery is repeatable and fluid despite being a tad on the aggressive side, and he is considered an easier sign than Cole and Purke, who both have turned down multi-million dollar bonuses in the past.

While no high school player has drawn serious consideration with regards to the top pick, the premier position player and pitcher deserve mention.  Bubba Starling of Gardner High in Kansas has tools to drool over and profiles well at both CF and RF.  His bat speed is otherworldly, and his arm is double-plus.  Unfortunately, he also is an exceptional football talent – why anyone even cares is beyond me – but it will likely take a great deal of dollars to keep him from fulfilling his commitment to play both sports for Nebraska.

Archie Bradley of Broken Arrow High in Oklahoma is beginning to distance himself from a strong crop of prep arms in Dylan Bundy, Daniel Norris, and Dillon Howard.  Bradley works in the mid-90s with a plus to double-plus breaking ball, and possesses tremendous athleticism and size.  He, like Starling, is also an excellent football player and is committed to play both football and baseball in college (Oklahoma), and, like Starling, a massive bonus is the only way to keep him from wasting his arm playing something other than baseball.

If the draft was tomorrow, I predict the Pirates will select Cole first, and the subsequent selections will be Rendon, Gray, Springer, Purke, Starling, and Bradley.  The collegiate pitching crop is especially talented, however, and there is plenty of reason to believe that someone like UConn’s Matt Barnes or Virginia’s Danny Hultzen could break into the #1 discussion as well.

#8 Jarrod Parker – Arizona Diamondbacks

RHP

DOB: 11-24-88

ETA: 2011

Kevin Towers, the Sombrero’s favorite GM, has quite a decision to make this spring with how to handle Jarrod Parker in 2011.  Parker is now more than a year removed from Tommy John surgery and has repeatedly stated that he feels as good now as he ever has.  His fastball is reaching the mid-90s and the slider is as deadly as ever.  It is most likely the best right-handed slider in the Minors today, and Parker has two other secondary offerings that should grade as a 60 by the time he reaches his mid-20s.

Unfortunately, Parker missed all of 2010 due to his surgery, so this ranking may seem ludicrous to some people and is considerably more aggressive than most other ranking systems out there.  Here’s why: Parker is the only guy in the game with the combination of arm speed, athleticism, command, and diversity of pitches, as well as a clear path to Major League starts in his early 20s.  The fact that he already had TJS only reinforces his value because he basically has a new elbow.  Based on early evaluations of his recovery, he seems more like a Jordan Zimmerman than a Francisco Liriano right now.

With the insane talent in 2011’s draft class, and the Diamondbacks possessing two of the first seven picks, there is a chance we might see a rotation along the lines of Parker, Daniel Hudson, and any combination of two guys from a list of Gerrit Cole, Matt Purke, Sonny Gray, and Taylor Jungmann.  Wow.  Can’t wait.  Go Diamondbacks!

• Our friends over at Splashing Pumpkins were lucky (not in the sense that they were undeserving!) enough to attend Giants Media Day this week, and capture a candid video interview with Madison Bumgarner.  Among the topics discussed in this must-watch interview: the Verducci effect, the Giants’ new Showtime series, and his hitting prowess.

• At the beginning of the week, MiLB.com sat down for an interview with San Francisco Giants’ prospect – a fan favorite here at the Sombrero – Brandon Belt.  After just one year in the Minor Leagues, Belt was recently named the #26 prospect in baseball by MLB.com.  Considering how careful the Giants were with their development of Buster Posey, I really don’t know what to think of GM Brian Sabean’s claim that Belt could break camp with the parent club.

• Baseball America has released their 2011 Preseason All-America Team as voted upon by MLB Scouting Directors.  The First Team is comprised of many of the names that we would expect to see on the list: Anthony Rendon (Rice), Alex Dickerson (Indiana), Gerrit Cole (UCLA), and Matt Purke (TCU).  One interesting note: incoming Stanford freshman Austin Wilson managed to sneak on to their Third Team.  This makes me wonder how good this kid has to be to receive such a prestigious recognition without having had a single collegiate at-bat…

• Earlier this week, Blue Jays manager John Farrell mentioned that Kyle Drabek could crack the starting rotation out of Spring Training, and possibly log more than 200 innings in his rookie season.  After coming over from Philadelphia in the Roy Halladay trade, Blue Jays’ fans – as well as all of baseball – were offered a glimpse of Drabek’s potential thanks to a September call-up.  This winter, Drabek was named the Blue Jays’ #1 prospect, as well as the 12^th-best prospect in all of baseball.  Here at the Sombrero, we ranked Drabek as the 33^rd-best prospect in baseball.

• Today I will be at Prep Baseball Report’s Super 60 – a showcase that features the best high school players from Illinois, Missouri and Indiana, and is attended by over 40+ Major League scouts.  The players I’m most looking forward to see include New Trier (IL) OF Charlie Tilson, Oak Forest (IL) OF Tim Barry, Warsaw (MO) SS Johnny Elerman, McCluer (MO) outfielder Lance Jeffries, and Vianney (MO) 3B Matt Brown.  The event is being held at the Max-McCook Athletic & Exposition Center, which might be the largest and most impressive indoor facility on this planet.

Prospect Buzz is the new, prospect-related link drop of The Golden Sombrero that will appear every Wednesday and Sunday.  As you may already know, we love prospects here at the Sombrero.  So if you have an article or link that you would like us consider for this segment, feel free to either email us or send it our way on Twitter.

Congratulations, dude! We’re really proud of you and know you’re going to continue to excel in your new role. Maybe see if you can’t get them to send you to scout Matt Purke some Friday evening this spring. I will meet you out in Fort Worth after school. Lots of love from the Sombrero, man.

Let’s start with two guys who presumably will be off of the 2011 board: McCasland and Jackson.  These two righties took center-stage in Sunday’s noon game where the StrikeZone Cardinals of Farmington shut the Florida Legends out, 3-0.  Both guys exhibited fastballs early in the game that reached as high as 94.  Both guys eventually settled a couple of ticks slower and pitched around 90 most of the game, although McCasland flashed 92 a couple of times beyond 100 pitches.  Jackson exited early after recording just 12 outs.  He was taken by the Rangers with the 45^th pick overall and likely will either accept a bonus in the seven figure range or head to the U, where he can continue to surf on the side and between starts.  His slim build makes his arm velocity surprising, but it’s real and projectable.  The Rangers cannot afford to blow this one because doing so will mean that they failed to sign their first pitcher in consecutive drafts after they were unable to sign Matt Purke in 2009.  Jackson’s relatively late ascension into the upper echelons of amateur pitching prospects has left him lacking a third pitch capable of getting both sides of the plate out, which caused him problems against the Cardinals in the form of an Andrew Castillo moon-shot, but his slider has good pace and decent tilt and projects to at least average.  When trying to slow it down, though, he slowed his arm speed considerably and lost some command.  I expect the Rangers to get a deal done before the deadline.  Rumor is $2 million seals the deal.

McCasland showed his typical great command and good tilt on a 12-6 breaking ball as well as the best changeup I have ever seen from him.  Leaving the pen Jake was attempting to get a little more speed differential between the two straight pitches by choking a tad harder.  It worked.  McCasland struck 11 Legends out, a squad that saw 14 kids taken in 2010’s draft in 108 pitches.  He was selected in the 38^th round by the Giants, and they have been in attendance every start since then.  McCasland felt as though he deserved 4^th round money or better.  Rumor is he earned it on Sunday and will have the papers in front of him ready to sign early this week.

Daniel Norris of the East Cobb Yankees and Jake Cole of the Arizona Firebirds tossed Friday night’s opening game, and Norris came out the victor.  He has been ranked as highly as the top prep arm in the nation by a number of scouting services.  The lefty’s fastball hit 96, but his off-speed stuff has a long way to go.  His curve exhibited bad tilt and worse pace, occasionally dipping into the 60’s.  He didn’t need it, because his fastball was good enough to beat Arizona regardless.  His body projects very well, and his mechanics exhibited decent polish.  That polish paled in comparison to Cole, however.  While Cole will not be eligible until the 2013 draft due to his commitment to North Carolina, he is a guy to watch out for then.  Currently his stuff only occasionally reaches 90, but he has three average pitches, plus command, good genes, and a projectable body.  The only question is whether he will develop into a hitter or a pitcher.  He was the best prep player in Tucson this spring, and the southwest is sad to see him leaving.

Dillon Howard of Midland looked like a combination of Cole’s off-speed stuff and Norris’s fastball pace.  I would be very surprised to see him fall out of 2011’s first round due to his repeatable delivery, athleticism, arm speed, and projectable frame.  The only thing that might keep him out is his command, which is not quite a 50 yet.  He ran fastballs into the mid-90’s and will be able to get both sides of the plate out.  I have seen him as high as 5^th in the prep ranks and third among righties.

First among righties is often DBAT’s Dylan Bundy.  Bundy received 10 runs of support in the first inning and was able to cruise to a mercy rule victory against Louisiana’s Bill Hood Broncos.  Still, the Broncos are a quality program, and Bundy was never in trouble.  While I was not in attendance, I know the stadium gun flashed 96 a few times.  Bundy will undoubtedly land in the first round of 2011’s draft after earning Oklahoma’s Gatorade Player of the Year honors as a sophomore and as a junior.  He is about the only player who may deserve to be taken before one of the myriad college arms who should be taken before the rest of the high school class.  He possesses potentially four average to above-average pitches and may not even be the Mustangs top guy.  That honor might fall to Archie Bradley who has not appeared yet in Farmington but is presumed to be taking the hill Tuesday against the winner of the Cardinals matchup tonight with the Illinois Longshots.

That’s all for now, but I will continue to write as I find time between practices and games this week.  Headed to BP at the StrikeZone now.  Go Cardinals!  We are sending righty and Oklahoma signee Adrian Houser to the mound.  He will be on a plane to Chicago for the Under Armour game Tuesday.  The Longshots are presumed to be throwing either Joe Claver (Illinois State) or Matt Lynch (Maryland).  Longshot and Creighton signee Mike Gerber won Sunday afternoon’s homerun derby and will surely be a tough out tonight.

Anthony Rendon, 3B

Rice’s Rendon put up these slashes as a sophomore: .394/.530/.801.  The dude went deep 26 times, stole 14 bags, and turned in a 65:22 K:BB.  His performance is absolutely mouth-watering, and a reasonable argument could be made that if he were a junior putting up these numbers he could have understandably been selected before Harper.  He at least should have earned the Golden Spikes over Harper.  Sorry, but there has never in the history of the sport been a JUCO guy who deserved the Golden Spikes, not even Harper.

Anyway, Rendon’s defense is at least playable at the hot corner professionally, and while collegiate defensive metrics are somewhat dubious when attainable, scouts seem to regard his defense as good to great.  Perhaps the part of Rendon’s game that I am most impressed with is the fact that he is doing this at an institution like Rice.  Yeah, he’s a baseball player, but he still has to go to class at a place like Rice.  Hell, he probably is expected to perform as well in the classroom as a lot of the other kids on campus not in athletics.  That is a rarity among the better hitters in most draft classes.  I personally feel as though this sets Rendon apart.

Unfortunately, Rendon went down with a broken ankle while playing for Team USA against South Korea a week ago.  With him out we dropped two of three against Chinese Taipei too.  What he provides is irreplaceable for the Red, White, and Blue.  Hopefully Rendon heals quickly and gets back to the form that landed him at the top of the list prior to last week.

I keep thinking that Rendon might become Longoria.  The numbers sure look similar.

Gerrit Cole, RHP

Cole struck out 131 guys in 101 innings as a sophomore Bruin.  He posted a 3.11 ERA and won ten games, not that I care about either of those marks.  What I care about is Cole’s ability to dial it up to 99 mph when he needs/wants and the fact that his breaking stuff comes in around 15 mph slower than the heater.  He actually throws a power sinker as well, but scouts don’t seem so high on it simply because the 4-seamer is so big.  He also has a change that may play as plus in a couple of years, but only plays at a 50 at the moment.  Changeups are feel offerings, though, and can improve every season until a guy bows out (Hoffman).  I don’t put a lot of stock into a guy’s third pitch before he reaches the bigs.  Look at Lincecum.  The guy basically didn’t throw a changeup for outs until the middle of his second season.  Now it grades 80 some days.

Cole will be the first arm taken because Cole’s stuff is retarded.  His mechanics raise some questions from scouts because he fights to get the arm speed he has.  Who cares?  They will be cleaner by the time he arrives to the bigs.  He turned down the Yanks’ offer of $3 million out of high school in 2008 because he really wanted to play in college.  The three years he will have spent under John Savage might be worth the extra $5 million the Yanks weren’t offering come next August… this would likely be a deadline kind of sign for the lucky squad that lands this arm.

Taylor Jungmann, RHP

The Longhorns’ Jungmann posted a slightly better K:BB than Cole, but his stuff is generally regarded as being a little less than Cole’s.  Jungmann is a true mid-90’s guy with a long frame and plus command.  He too has a couple of plus other offerings with the ability to get both sides of the plate out.  The secondary stuff may be a little ahead of Cole’s at the moment.  Jungmann has more pace on his breaker than Cole, but he exhibits a number of the same flaws in his delivery that Cole exhibits.  Both guys are across the body throwers and tend to use a lot of arm in their deliveries, but that is what the minors are for.  Jungmann is a horse as he averages 7 innings per start.  There just aren’t a lot of flaws here.  From what I have personally seen of Jungmann, I expect him to generate a lot of groundballs from the right side of the plate and a lot of swings and misses on secondary stuff from both sides.  Jungmann is as premium an arm as exists, and the fact that he has had the success he has in a Longhorns uniform is worth millions.

Matt Purke, LHP

The Sombrero has already mentioned the lefty Purke, but he deserves to be included with these other guys.  Matt Purke won 16 games as a freshman while striking out 142 guys in 116.1 IP.  His stuff is electric.  He throws real mid-90’s fastballs with good arm-side action as well as a plus slurve.  His changeup is not used frequently, but he has some feel for it, and it should be good enough to get the right side out so long as it is in the zone.  Purke is also long in the arms – very long – and that may lead to some difficulty locating his changeup.  Purke is available in 2011 due to some faulty wording in the rules designed to keep guys in college three years, but his early departure is ultimately going to be better for everyone.  It will provide Purke the leverage to get the bonus he wants as well as the chance to get through the minors quicker due to the extra polish he has picked up since the Rangers deal fell apart in 2009.

We will periodically discuss other higher profile guys in 2011’s draft class.  These first four will all be multimillion-dollar bonus babies and will all get through the minors quickly.  I know this is about a month late in getting posted, but I have been a little fixated on the local baseball scene back home.  Go Cardinals!