It has been announced that Drayton McLane and Jim Crane have reached an agreement on the purchase of the (my) Houston Astros.  This sale brings closure to the end of an era that has seen the Astros reach the World Series, and then become the laughing stock of all MLB organizations. (Except maybe Pittsburgh…maybe.)  McLane took over the Astros in 1993.  While Drayton is leaving this franchise amidst one of it’s lowest points, he also gave Astros fans plenty to be thankful for.  While my view on things tends to lean towards the more cynical, I am always, always, always grateful for baseball and what baseball brings to my life.  So instead of focusing on where Drayton has left us, I want to thank him for what he brought us during his tenure as owner of the Houston Astros.

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Stats through April 27, 2011

Troy Tulowitzki: .326/.416/.674, 7 2B, 3B, 7 HR, 17 RBI, 58 TB, 14 BB, 8 K, 1.4 WAR, .349 ISO

• 10 multi-hit games
• April 11 – April 16:  13-for-24, 2 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 8 RBI

Joey Votto: .376/.505/.624, 21 R, 7 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 53 TB, 21 BB, 12 K, 2.1 WAR, .276 ISO

• 10 multi-hit games
• Reached base safely in every game
• vs. left-handers: .579/.600/.842
• w/ runners in scoring position: 7-for-16, 2 2B, HR, 9 RBI, 9 BB, 2 K

Lance Berkman: .371/.443/.729, 18 R, 7 2B, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 51 TB, 9 BB, 8 K, 1.2 WAR, .321 ISO

• 10 multi-hit games
• April 11 – April 15: 10-for-21, 9 R, 6 HR, 12 RBI
• w/ runners in scoring .412/.500/.647, HR, 10 RBI
• w/ two outs: .450/.542/.900, 3 HR, 10 RBI

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Playing fantasy baseball is fashionable for many reasons.  It appeals to not only rad people, such as myself, but also has qualities that attract the nerdiest guy you know from your AP stats class back in high school.  People love the stats, and people love trying to predict the future.  If they didn’t, then why are psychic hotlines so popular?  For me, though, it is not really about the stats.  It is all about playing the role of the Fantasy GM.

I am sure that there are others who feel this way.  Maybe it is just the fact that I am now a baseball coach/manager, or maybe it is because I can’t stand being drug through the mud for another season as an Astros’ fan.  Whatever the reason, I love to play the role of the GM.  The best part about being the GM: the trades.  Oh, yes.

Trading is maybe the most exciting part of any fantasy season.  I love trying to negotiate a deal on a buy low candidate or trying to convince another owner that so-and-so is not really as good as he thinks he is.  Or maybe I just want some new blood in the lineup.  Regardless, I love trading and think that it is one of the most crucial components to a successful fantasy season.

With the one month mark rapidly approaching, I would like to introduce the first article in a new series I plan on putting out every other week this year.  I call it, Trade Bait.  It is a list of some players that I would like to acquire, as well as guys I am getting rid of as if they were the plague.  I will also start each article off with the list of trades that have gone down in the Denslow Cup before introducing each list.

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Mark Twain is responsible for popularizing the Sir Charles Wentworth Dilke quote, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”  As someone who bases many of his opinions on statistics, I could not agree more.  I could take any player, along with any different combination of stats, and come up with two different opinions on that player.  Anyone who has ever manipulated statistics to benefit their own argument knows exactly what I am talking about.  But what about the other times, when you come to an opinion that has no logical basis other than you just feel it?  Deep down inside your gut you have an inkling, an instinct that something will happen.  There is no real rhyme or reason behind this belief.  Most of the time when you mention these beliefs to friends they call you crazy, or some synonym of loco.  The beauty of these types of beliefs is that when they become a reality, when you have used only your gut instinct to defy the laws of statistical analysis, it is a thing of beauty.  I can honestly say that there is no better feeling in the world.

When I was 11-years-old, living in Houston, I told anyone who would listen how the Rockets were going to win it all.  They defied all odds, coming back from a 2-0 deficit in the first round to defeat the Jazz, then coming back from a 3-1 deficit to eliminate the Suns, and finally sweeping Shaq and the Magic in the Finals to win it all; all while becoming the first team in NBA history to defeat four 50-win teams en route to winning an NBA title.  What does this have to do with the 2011 baseball season though?  At 11-years-old, I had no idea what statistics could be used for.  I knew nothing about backing up an opinion with logical information.  I was freaking 11-years-old!  But, somewhere deep down inside I knew, I just knew, that my Rockets were not going to lose a playoff series that year.  Maybe it was because they had the heart of a champion.  Maybe not.  Either way, I made a gut call about sports and it miraculously came to fruition.

Long story short, that premise is the central idea for this article.  In the upcoming weeks you will find a myriad of articles around the web talking about people’s bold predictions.  Most of these predictions have some sort of stat to back them up.  Not me.  I am here to give you some truly outlandish predictions that have no evidence to support them other than I “feel” like it will happen.  This is not about me trying to predict the future correctly.  This is about finding that 11-year-old inside of me who just believed.  This is about having some fun and enjoying letting my imagination run wild with the endless possibilities of what could happen in a baseball season that has yet to start.  So, without further ado, here are my outlandish, completely unwarranted, and instinct-based predictions for the 2011 Major League Baseball season.

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Everyone has a vice.  If you’re like me, you have multiple vices.  My favorite vice, fantasy baseball, is right around the corner, so I just couldn’t help but look for some interesting angle to write on in January.  Analysis of off-season moves are done by, well everyone.  Rankings and season previews are more of a spring-training time piece.  Writing about the shittiness of any one of my Houston Astros’ players value (except Mr. Bourn and WayRod, duh) is pointless for so many reasons.  So what does that really leave a guy with in January?  How about a little head-to-head action…by position.  I’m not talking about looking at the top guys at each position, but rather the guys in those second – possibly third if you’re in a deep league – tier guys that can really make or break your draft and season.  Over the next week and a half, I will be releasing a new position each day.  I will take a look at a couple of guys from each position and see how they match up versus their higher drafted counterparts.  As per usual, any ideas, thoughts, or beliefs (both supporting and opposing) are welcomed.

First base is a rather deep position this year with Joey Votto emerging as the hitter many have seen coming, Adrian Gonzalez getting to trade Petco for Fenway, Prince Fielder heading into free agency after the season (I’m a sucker for a guy playing for a new, mega-sized contract), as well as your standards like Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera, and Mark Teixeira.  If you are not fortunate enough to secure one of those guys, then whom do you take a flier on?

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