After each Ranger game this October, the sports fans of my dental school class usually have something to say to me about the previous night/day’s game.  From bullpen usage to pinch hitters, they typically want to hear what I have to say about the decisions being made on and off the field that affect the Rangers and their bid to follow the Mavs as world champs.  I don’t know what or who the Mavs are, but apparently they won something called the NBA Finals last summer just as baseball season was about to break for All-Star festivities.   If you’ve been reading my stuff on this site for long, you know that October is the worst month at the Baylor College of Dentistry each month.  It is referred to as Black October because it is full of midterm exams, progress exams, presentations, etc.  Nevertheless, for me at least, whatever is happening at school must take a backseat to whatever is happening in baseball.  Two nights ago I had to move my bedroom TV into the living room so I could watch both LCS games and simultaneously study for my pediatrics exam, which I had at 7:40 the following morning.  I surely did quite poorly on the exam, but I also was able to watch two pretty fantastic games.  Perspectives, right?

The baseball fans of my class as well as several faculty members and their baseball-related questions make my experience at dental school much more enjoyable, and, despite the fact that BCD tries so hard to make October suck, this month is still the best month of the year.  2011 is uniquely terrific because such a high percentage of the game’s truly elite hitters and pitchers were/are on playoff teams.  Evan Longoria, David Price, CC, Doc, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Chase Utley, Robinson Cano, Tex, Grandelay, Justin Upton, James Shields, and those are just some of the guys who have already been eliminated.  The remaining players and teams are so evenly matched and the games have been so competitive that the baseball world has been collectively drooling since the last week of September.

As we watch the NFL and NBA unions collectively fail their fans and their sports altogether, we baseball fans are reminded this time of year how lucky we are that we have the game that we do.  Honestly, how is the NFL players’ union going to allow for HGH testing?  That league is in very serious danger.  What NFL player isn’t on H?  The kickers?  Maybe.  And the NBA has already cancelled games because of labor disputes.  This might be baseball’s chance to take back what it is rightly due, the hearts of sports fans nationwide.

What we baseball nuts can do for the sport during this month is realize that no matter what is going on in our lives, we must continue to make time for the game.  The people we surround ourselves with on a daily basis must constantly be reminded how awesome the game is and how lucky we are to have a month long holiday where we are encouraged to celebrate it.  So as the World Series approaches and with both LCS’s very evenly matched and close, remember how lucky we are to have a game to follow that provides us thousands of games a year at the highest level to follow and love.  This is the culmination of another terrific year.  Thanks for reading The Sombrero and sticking with us as Arlo worked through whatever malware bullshit was going on here a couple of weeks ago.  Happy October baseball fans!

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Tampa Bay Rays:

Matt Moore 1-0, 9.1 IP, 14.46 K/9, 2.89 ERA, 2.17 FIP, 1.85 xFIP, 0.4 fWAR

Sean Rodriguez, SS

B.J. Upton, CF

Evan Longoria, 3B

Ben Zobrist, 2B

Johnny Damon, DH

Kelly Shoppach, C

Casey Kotchman, 1B

Desmond Jennings, LF

Matt Joyce, RF

Texas Rangers:

C.J. Wilson: 16-7, 223.1 IP, 8.30 K/9, 3.60 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 3.79 xFIP, 5.9 fWAR

Ian Kinsler, 2B

Elvis Andrus, SS

Josh Hamilton, CF

Michael Young, 1B

Adrian Beltre, 3B

Mike Napoli, C

Nelson Cruz, RF

Yorvit Torrealba, DH

Craig Gentry, LF

Top 1: Evan Longoria called out on strikes against Felipe Paulino

Top 3: Longoria singled to left against Paulino

Top 5: Longoria stuck out swinging against Paulino

Top 6: Longoria called out on strikes against Blake Wood

Top 8: Longoria struck out swinging against Louis Coleman

Final Line: 1-for-5, RBI, 4 K, 7 LOB

Notes: Although the game went well for the Rays—5-0 win—the same can’t be said for Longo.  Now hitting .242 on the season, Longoria fanned in four of his five at-bats on Sunday, and left seven runners on base in the process.  He also committed a throwing error, but luckily it didn’t spoil Alex Cobb’s gem.

Total 2011 Sombreros: 73

Robinson Cano, Evan Longoria, Joe Mauer, Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera, etc.  There are a lot of talented hitters in the AL right now.  I would take Bautista over any of them, at least if the only criteria was offensive production.  Obviously what a guy like Longoria can bring to the defensive side of the game probably trumps the difference between he and any other AL stud, so I still think he’s the most valuable player in that league, but personally I would greatly prefer Jose Bautista to any other hitter.  Here’s why.

When evaluating hitters, a logical place to start is the numbers since they provide a basis and serve as a reminder of what our eyes see over the course of hundreds of at-bats.  Bautista is currently slashing a .354/.519/.781 line with 11 jacks and as many extra base hits as strikeouts.  He is walking nearly twice as many times as he is striking out, and he is almost on pace to steal 20 bags in 2011.  Everyone remembers his bombs from 2010, but what most people don’t realize is that he hit only .260.  According to many models that calculate what a player’s average should be given league average BABIP and G/L/F, a batting average over .330 was within reach if only he had posted a league average amount of luck.  What’s more, he jumped up nearly .200 points in OPS from the first half to the second.  All this means that at least mathematically, there is plenty of reason to suspect that Bautista might be even better than he was in 2010.

How did this happen?  How could a player in his late 20’s blow up in the way that Bautista did last year?  What changed?  Prior to 2010 he had never slugged over .420 or had an OBP over .349.  Could it really be as simple as everyday playing time or the fact that Toronto is such a nice place to swing the bat?  No.  There’s more.  A lot more.  Jose Bautista has always had the talent to annihilate pitches.  A lot of Major Leaguers do.  What Bautista discovered when he moved from Pittsburgh to Toronto is how to lift from the front of his swing.  “Discovered” is probably not the correct term.  “Was told” is more appropriate.  Dwayne Murphy is an exceptional hitting coach, and, after transforming Bautista into the hitter he is today, probably deserves at least a cameo on the next season of Eastbound.

Let’s get back to Bautista’s mechanics at the plate.  He begins his swing somewhat pre-loaded with his hands high and heavily crowds the plate.  As he loads his hands stay relatively high and slide back into a very customary hitting position.  He strides high, but lands softly and practically never leaks.  Very little about what Bautista does pre-pitch sets him apart aside from how well he stays behind his front side in terms of weight distribution.  A case can be made that through crowding the plate as much as he does that he sets himself up to be perpetually exposed to high and tight fastballs, but he practically never gets jammed.  The difference mechanically is that Bautista’s bat track is beyond textbook.  He enters the hitting zone from above the ball every single pitch.  This is more than just a feat of excellent mechanics.  This is perhaps the most impressive display of athleticism in baseball today.

Last night, on a pitch that might have beaned him, Bautista hit a Max Scherzer fastball off the wall in CENTER!  I am not even sure how something like that is possible, but it is highly exemplary of what makes Bautista great.  An example of the contrary is Ian Kinsler’s cut.  Kinsler is a below-the-ball hitter on every pitch that is not a down and away fastball.  He is very athletic, so he still has some success with this track, but he never really generates long drives with any carry middle-pull either.  Bautista, on the other hand, essentially only hits the ball with tremendous carry.

Perhaps the single component of his game, though, that really sets him apart is his utter refusal to be cheated swings.  He only swings as hard as he can every cut. It takes a great deal of discipline to do this at-bat after at-bat, game after game.

Bautista is going to win the MVP award this year if he can reach 600 plate appearances.  I will be very surprised if anyone is within .050 OPS points of him as well, including Miguel Cabrera.  Just watch.

National League

West Division

1.     Los Angeles Dodgers

2.     San Francisco Giants

3.     Colorado Rockies

4.     Arizona Diamondbacks

5.     San Diego Padres

Central Division

1.     Cincinnati Reds

2.     Milwaukee Brewers

3.     St. Louis Cardinals

4.     Chicago Cubs

5.     Pittsburgh Pirates

6.     Houston Astros

East Division

1.     Philadelphia Phillies

2.     Atlanta Braves

3.     Washington Nationals

4.     New York Mets

5.     Florida Marlins

Wild Card: Atlanta Braves

NLDS

Phillies def. Reds in 5

Braves def. Dodgers in 4

NLCS

Braves def. Phillies in 6

Series MVP: Jason Heyward

Rookie of the Year (hitter): Brandon Belt

Rookie of the Year (pitcher): Craig Kimbrel

Reliever of the Year: Carlos Marmol

Strikeout Leader: Tim Lincecum

Cy Young Winner: Clayton Kershaw

Batting Champ: Ryan Braun

HR Champ: Joey Votto

MVP: Ryan Braun

American League

West Division

1.     Texas Rangers

2.     Oakland Athletics

3.     Los Angeles Angels

4.     Seattle Mariners

Central Division

1.     Chicago White Sox

2.     Minnesota Twins

3.     Detroit Tigers

4.     Kansas City Royals

5.     Cleveland Indians

East Division

1.     Boston Red Sox

2.     Tampa Bay Rays

3.     New York Yankees

4.     Baltimore Orioles

5.     Toronto Blue Jays

Wild Card Winner: Tampa Bay Rays

ALDS

Red Sox def. Rangers in 4

White Sox def. Rays in 5

ALCS

Red Sox def. White Sox in 6

Series MVP: Adrian Gonzalez

ROY (hitter): Mike Moustakas

ROY (pitcher): Jeremy Hellickson

Reliever of the Year: Neftali Feliz

Strikeout Leader: Justin Verlander

Cy Young Winner: Jon Lester

Batting Champ: Robinson Cano

HR King: Adam Dunn

MVP: Evan Longoria

World Series

Red Sox def. Braves in 6

MVP: Jon Lester

National League

West Division

1.     San Francisco Giants

2.     Colorado Rockies

3.     Los Angeles Dodgers

4.     Arizona Diamondbacks

5.     San Diego Padres

Central Division

1.     Milwaukee Brewers

2.     Cincinnati Reds

3.     St. Louis Cardinals

4.     Chicago Cubs

5.     Pittsburgh Pirates

6.     Houston Astros (tear drop)

East Division

1.     Atlanta Braves

2.     Philadelphia Phillies

3.     New York Mets

4.     Washington Nationals

5.     Florida Marlins

Wild Card Winner- Colorado Rockies

NLDS

Milwaukee vs. Colorado- Milwaukee wins in 5

San Francisco vs. Atlanta- San Francisco wins in 4

NLCS

San Francisco vs. Milwaukee- San Francisco wins in 6

Series MVP= Tim Lincecum

ROY (hitter)- Freddie Freeman

ROY (pitcher)- Aroldis Chapman

Reliever of the Year- Aroldis Chapman

Strikeout Leader- Tim Lincecum

Cy Young Winner- Tim Lincecum

Batting Champ- Albert Pujols

HR Champ- Prince Fielder (50)

MVP- Troy Tulowitzki

American League

West Division

1.     Texas Rangers

2.     Oakland Athletics

3.     Los Angeles Angels

4.     Seattle Mariners

Central Division

1.     Detroit Tigers

2.     Minnesota Twins

3.     Chicago White Sox

4.     Cleveland Indians

5.     Kansas City Royals

East Division

1.     Tampa Bay Rays

2.     Boston Red Sox

3.     Baltimore Orioles

4.     New York Yankees

5.     Toronto Blue Jays

Wild Card Winner- Boston Red Sox

ALDS

Texas vs. Boston- Boston wins in 5

Tampa Bay vs. Detroit- Tampa Bay wins in 4

ALCS

Tampa Bay vs. Boston- Tampa Bay wins in 7

Series MVP= Evan Longoria

ROY (hitter)- Mike Moustakas

ROY (pitcher)- Jeremy Hellickson

Reliever of the Year- Joakim Soria

Strikeout Leader- Justin Verlander

Cy Young Winner- Justin Verlander

Batting Champ- Miguel Cabrera

HR Champ- Adrian Gonzalez

MVP- Adrian Gonzalez

World Series

Tampa Bay vs. San Francisco- San Francisco wins in 7

MVP- Tim Lincecum

AL East

1.     Boston Red Sox

2.     Tampa Bay Rays (Wildcard)

3.     New York Yankees

4.     Toronto Blue Jays

5.     Baltimore Orioles

AL Central

1.   Minnesota Twins

2.   Detroit Tigers

3.   Chicago White Sox

4.   Kansas City Royals

5.   Cleveland Indians

AL West

1.   Texas Rangers

2.   Los Angeles Angels

3.   Oakland Athletics

4.   Seattle Mariners

ALDS 1: Red Sox over Twins (4 games)

ALDS 2: Rays over Rangers (5 games)

ALCS: Red Sox over Rays (6 games)

MVP: Dustin Pedroia

NL East

1.   Philadelphia Phillies

2.   Atlanta Braves (wildcard)

3.   Florida Marlins

4.   Washington Nationals

5.   New York Mets

NL Central

1.   Milwaukee Brewers

2.   Cincinnati Reds

3.   St. Louis Cardinals

4.   Houston Astros

5.   Chicago Cubs

6.   Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West

1.   Los Angeles Dodgers

2.   San Francisco Giants

3.   Colorado Rockies

4.   Arizona Diamondbacks

5.   San Diego Padres

NLDS 1: Phillies over Brewers (5 games)

NLDS 2: Dodgers over Braves (5 games)

NLCS: Phillies over Dodgers (5 games)

MVP: Shane Victorino

World Series: Red Sox over Phillies (7 games)

MVP: Jon Lester

NL Rookie of the Year

Hitter: Brandon Belt

Pitcher: Mike Minor

AL Rookie of the Year

Hitter: J.P. Arencibia

Pitcher: Jeremy Hellickson

NL Reliever of the Year: Heath Bell

AL Reliever of the Year: Matt Thornton

NL MVP: Albert Pujols

AL MVP: Evan Longoria

NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum

AL Cy Young: Jon Lester

NL Batting Title: Joey Votto

AL Batting Title: Robinson Cano

NL HR Leader: Albert Pujols

AL HR Leader: Alex Rodriguez

NL Strikeout Leader: Clayton Kershaw

AL Strikeout Leader: Jon Lester