With the college season — and high school season, for the most part — already under way, speculation is swirling regarding who will be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft in June.  Due to the quality of arms, both collegiate and prep, in this year’s draft class, it’s likely that first player off the board will be a pitcher.  And considering our ongoing fascination with the prospects in the 2012 draft class, it’s only appropriate to open a poll while the season is still young.  Therefore, the staff at The Golden Sombrero is curious as to who, you, our faithful readers, believe will be the No. 1 selection in the 2012 draft:

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

---

Subscribe to The Golden Sombrero by Email

---

---

RHP Lucas Giolito, Harvard-Westlake (CA)

• John Kilma of Baseball Prospect Report had another look at Lucas Giolito this past week and captured more video of the right-hander.  He didn’t touch 100 MPH as he allegedly did last week, but Kilma had him at 96-98 MPH from the stack in the first and 94-96 MPH in the third.  Kilma also states that Giolito is one of the two best 17-year-old pitchers that he’s personally scouted, the other being Felix Hernandez.

• Over at FanGraphs, J.P. Breen examines 10 high school bats that figure to be an early selection in the 2012 draft in June.  The quality of prep outfield prospects this year is particularly impressive: Byron Buxton (GA), David Dahl (AL), Courtney Hawkins (TX), and Albert Almora (FL).

• Jeff Reese and Al Skorupa of Bullpen Banter compare college right-handers Kevin Gausman and Mark Appel, both of whom hope to keep their name in the 1-1 conversation.

• The great John Sickels of Minor League Ball completed a mock draft with Matt Garrioch and without spoiling all of the results, here is a quick glance at their top five overall: 1. Kevin Gausman (Astros); 2. Lucas Giolito (Twins); 3. Mike Zunino (Mariners); 4. Byron Buxton (Orioles); 5. Mark Appel (Royals)

• Conor Glassey of Baseball America posted scouting notes and video of Stony Brook outfielder Travis Jankowski, who is currently No. 24 on their Top 100 draft board.  The video includes Jankowski’s pre-game batting practice as well as clips from a 3-for-5 performance against Eastern Carolina.  I love how quiet this kid is at the plate not to mention his ability to use the whole field.  I think I’m going to have to go check him out once it warms up a bit.

Want to discuss prospects with Mike or simply pass along a link? Then be sure to follow him on Twitter (@GoldenSombrero).

Taylor Jungmann

With Spring Training finally upon us and speculation surrounding the future of baseball’s brightest prospects spreads like wildfire, The Golden Sombrero will highlight some of the notable and intriguing Spring Training invitees from each organization.

Wily Peralta*, RHP:  Widely considered to be the Brewers’ top prospect, Peralta was signed out of the Dominican Republic as a toolsy outfielder in 2005.  But after witnessing his raw arm strength, the 6-foot-2, 240-pounder was quickly transitioned to the bump.  After missing the 2007 due to Tommy John surgery, Peralta has progressed steadily since returning.

In his breakout season as a 21-year-old in 2010, Peralta posted an 8-6 record and 3.79 ERA with 104 strikeouts and 64 walks in 147.1 innings between High-A and Double-A.  He followed it up  by having his best minor league season to date in 2011.  Peralta went 9-7 with a 3.46 ERA, 117 strikeouts, and 48 walks over 119.2 innings at Double-A Huntsville.  His success garnered a late-season promotion to Triple-A where he went 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in 31 innings.  Peralta also showed improved command in the hitter-friendly PCL, as he posted a 40/11 K/BB ratio.

Peralta pounds the strikezone with a four-seam and two-seam fastball, and typically sits in the low- to mid-90s – although he is capable of touching the upper-90s.  His best secondary pitch is a hard slider, which, when kept down in the zone, is a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch.  He also features a change up which has come along over the years due to his role as a starter, but at the moment probably only grades out as about a 50.

Although some believe he is best suited for a bullpen role, the Brewers have remained steadfast in their development of Peralta as a starter.  Therefore, it will likely take an injury to a member of the Brewers’ rotation for Peralta to get his shot.  While a strong spring will greatly improve his chances of breaking camp, it’s likely that Peralta will begin the 2012 season in Triple-A

Taylor Jungmann, RHP:  Selected by the Brewers with the 12^th overall pick in the 2011 draft, Jungmann had been one of the top collegiate pitchers since his freshman year at Texas.  At 6-foot-6, 220-pounds, the lanky right-hander throws each of his pitches on a downward plane and isn’t afraid to attack opposing hitters.  Although he can reach back for a 95-96 mph fastball, he typically works in the 92-94 range with late life.  His slider continues to improve – his size, arm slot, and arm speed have always generated above-average tilt – and is considered his best secondary offering.  Like most young pitchers, Jungmann was considered a power pitcher in college and therefore lacks an above-average change up.  However, it’s decent and could grade as a 60 in time.

Considering he signed at the last minute, Jungmann will get his first taste of professional baseball in 2012.  Given his collegiate experience, he’ll likely begin the season at High-A Brevard County – unless he wows the organization enough during Spring Training to begin at Double-A.  But keep your eye on Jungmann, if he progresses swimmingly, the right-hander could be on the fast track to the big leagues.

Jed Bradley, LHP:  The Brewers netted two potential front-end starters in Jungmann and Bradley.  Selected three picks after Jungmann with the 15^th overall pick, Bradley was the second-best left-hander available in the 2011 draft.  At 6-foot-4, 225-pounds, Bradley’s size and collegiate experience project well, so I wouldn’t look too far into his getting knocked around in the Arizona Fall League.  When you’re the ace of your program, the collegiate season can become rather taxing.

His fastball typically sits in the low-90s but he’s been flashing 94-95s more and more which leads many scouts believe that could become his norm.  He also features a pretty nasty power-slider in the high-80s and a neutralizing change up.  His mechanics are smooth and allow him to locate each of his three pitches.  His and Jungmann’s minor league careers – neither of which should be lengthy – will be intertwined as Milwaukee plans for both players to arrive in the Show around the same time.

Caleb Gindl*, OF:  Drafted out of high school in the fifth round of the 2007 draft, Gindl has completed one minor league level per year and has a career line of .300/.378/.466 to show for it.  He enjoyed his best season for Triple-A Nashville in 2011, posting a .862 OPS with 23 doubles, 15 home runs, and a 93/63 K/BB in 472 at-bats.  Although those numbers are inflated due to the hitter-friendly PCL, they’re consistent with his production at every level and his approach at the plate continued to improve.

Gindl is a stocky, 5-foot-9, 205-pound outfielder with above-average arm strength and quiet athleticism. He played all three outfield positions last year in Triple-A – including 38 games in center field – but profiles as a corner guy in the majors due to his lack of power.  But with Ryan Braun and Corey Hart entrenched in their respective positions, Gindl is at best a fourth outfielder or left-handed hitting platoon option.  The Brewers protected the 23-year-old by adding him to their 40-man roster in November; however, they also added minor league teammate Logan Schafer who breezed through four levels in 2011, including eight games for Milwaukee at the end of the season.

Cody Scarpetta*, RHP:  When he’s on, Scarpetta has swing-and-miss stuff and two plus pitches in a mid-90s fastball and a big-time hammer.  But when he’s off…it’s ugly.  He falls out of sync with his mechanics, which results in control issues and painful ineffectiveness.  At Class-A Brevard County of the FSL in 2010, the 6-foot-3, 240-pound right-hander recorded a 3.87 ERA with 142 strikeouts and 67 walks over 128 innings.  Last season, his first full season at Double-A, Scarpetta went 8-5 with a 3.85 ERA and 98/61 K/B over 117 innings.  Still, it says something that he’s kept his ERA under 4.00 despite the control issues.

Scarpetta gives up far too many hits than he should considering his stuff, primarily because hitters sit on his fastball during his bouts of inconsistency.  The development of his change up will pay dividends for the right-hander and keep him in consideration for a starting role, but he hasn’t adapted it as quickly as scouts hoped.  If he works out some kinks and refines his command, Scarpetta could find himself in the Show quickly, although it would likely involve a bullpen role.

*on team’s 40-man roster

Want to discuss prospects with Mike? Follow him on Twitter (@GoldenSombrero) and join the discussion on our Facebook page.

In a previous post I commended San Francisco’s Kyle Zimmer for his standout career both as a student and as an athlete and suggested that he also will fall in the first half of round 1 come June, so I felt as though I should follow that up with a brief scouting report.

Zimmer has a prototypical pitcher’s frame at 6-foot-4 with lengthy limbs.  He is an excellent athlete and often receives better grades for athleticism than for anything else, a terrific sign given the fact that he has had to learn pitching on the fly.  He did not go to the University of San Francisco to pitch but rather as an infielder, but his arm is so strong that eventually he was bound to wind up on a mound even as simply an experiment.

Zimmer has added a lot of extension and length to his delivery and is far more solid in back than he was early in his pitching career, exactly what one expects from a converted infielder or catcher.  Quality deliveries require enough length to provide the time necessary to reach a repeatable release point from a healthful slot.  Zimmer definitely has a delivery now that allows him to do that.  He has been up to 99 mph this spring already and could throw up a triple-digit readout at any time.  With a potentially triple-plus fastball and some polish to his delivery, he immediately shoots into the one-one conversation.

His secondary stuff is behind the fastball, but not nearly as far as it could be given how little time he has spent on the mound thus far.  His curveball (we are only considering the sharper and quicker version even though he has used a loopier one in the past as well) already is a 50 pitch, and his changeup, while fringy now, has shown enough promise to assume that it will always be useable and will always be improving.

He commands the ball well to both sides of the plate, and his numbers back up his projectability.  He has filled out a lot in his time with USF (around 220 lbs. now), but he probably still has some development left in him as well.  His changeup has already looked better in his spring starts than it did on the Cape, and he has used his tighter bender more frequently as well.  All of this shows Zimmer’s propensity to listen and react to criticism.  Zimmer’s makeup is off of the charts, and I like him a lot more than other righties in the 1-1 conversation right now.

• There’s been a growing buzz surrounding University of San Francisco RHP Kyle Zimmer, as he’s asserted his name into the No. 1 overall discussion.  In his first couple starts of the season, his command of four pitches has been great while consistently bringing it in the upper-90s.  John Kilma of Baseball Prospect Report – formerly known as Baseball Beginnings – details what he likes about Zimmer and provides some personal video of the right-hander.

• In the back-end of a double header on Sunday, Georgia Southern right fielder Victor Roache broke his wrist while diving for a ball and is expected to miss the remainder of the 2012 season.  Roache, who is ranked by Baseball America as the No. 9 prospect on their draft board, was coming off a monster offensive season in which he slashed .326/.428/.778 with 30 home runs.  Prior to the injury, he was hitting .412/.600/.765 with two home runs.

• Andrew Pentis of MLB.com wrote a great article on Trevor Bauer and his quest to be the perfect blend of a power and finesse pitcher.  Bauer apparently has nine (yes, nine) pitches, each one specifically designed for a given scenario and/or count.

• After watching endless video and reading a host of scouting reports, a player I like more and more everyday is David Dahl.  I love his setup at the plate as well as his bat path and balance to the point of contact – it’s pretty.  All the tools are there and everything he does on the baseball field looks natural.  Conor Glassey of Baseball America recently posted a first-hand video of Dahl recorded this past summer.  Baseball America also named him a 2012 First Team Preseason High School All-American.

• The great John Sickels of Minor League Ball has finally released his Top 120 prospects for the 2012 season.  In my personal opinion, his list is always one of the best and this year is no different.

• If you’ve enjoyed Dee’s articles on scouting philosophy and the evolution of the prospect landscape, then be sure to check out Nathaniel Stoltz’s “There’s No Such Thing as a First Base Prospect” at Seedlings to Stars.  Stoltz and the rest of the S2S staff have done an impressive job since launching last May, and I find myself reading it daily.

• Over at FanGraphs, Mark Anderson compares Pirates pitching prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon.  He examines their respective mechanics and arsenal as well as their overall command and mound presence.  However, I’ll let you find out who he ultimately prefers.

Matt Harvey

As Spring Training rapidly approaches and speculation surrounding the future of baseball’s brightest prospects spreads like wildfire, The Golden Sombrero will highlight some of the notable and intriguing Spring Training invitees from each organization.

Cesar Puello*, OF:  Signed out of the Dominican Republic as a 17-year-old, Puello is a toolsy outfielder with power potential.  Between his two seasons in Rookie ball (2008 and 2009), Puello slashed .300/.363/.398 with 22 extra-base hits and 28 stolen bases.  Playing for Low-A Savannah in 2010, the right-handed hitter slashed .292/.375/.359 and swiped 45 bags in 55 attempts.  Even though Puello improved his power production at High-A St. Lucie in 2011, he also saw some of his weaknesses exploited.  In 441 at-bats, he posted career-bests in triples (five), home runs (10), RBI (50), and total bases (175).  However, Puello fanned 103 times compared to only 18 walks due to poor pitch recognition and count manipulation.  He’ll likely never hit for a great average, but his power/speed combo does project well at the big league level – as evidenced by the Mets decision to add him to the 40-man roster.  He has the potential to be the Mets’ starting right-fielder at some point in 2013, but will have to refine both his offensive approach and ability as a base-stealer at Double-A in 2012.

Jeurys Familia*, RHP:  After making a strong professional debut in the GCL in 2008 and following it up by earning Mets minor league pitcher of the year honors in 2009, Familia had an off-year in 2010 at High-A (5.58 ERA, 1.58 WHIP in 121 innings).  One encouraging aspect of his otherwise disappointing season, the 22-year-old Familia fanned 137 hitters – though he walked 74.  Since then he has somewhat regained his form as the 6-foot-3 right-hander posted a 3.49 ERA and 96/35 K/BB ratio after a promotion to Double-A in 2011.  Familia has always featured an above-average fastball that sits in the mid-90s and reaches the upper-90s, as well as a mediocre breaking ball and change up.  Neither pitch has to be exceptional; but definitely good enough complement his fastball and be thrown in fastball counts.

Familia’s ceiling will continue to be determined by his command, which has been consistently iffy.  Despite working primarily as a starter in the minors, his cleanest path to the Major League might be as a high-leverage reliever, possibly even closer.  Out of the bullpen, his fastball will likely sit towards the upper-90s, which should inherently improve both of his offspeed pitches.  Already on the team’s 40-man roster, will definitely make his MLB debut in 2012.  The only question is whether it will be as a starter or reliever.

Matt Den Dekker, OF:  Unlike Puello, den Dekker is more of a fringe outfield prospect.  In his first professional season in 2010, den Dekker posted a slash line of .336/.396/.459 with 17 doubles over 122 at-bats between the GCL and Low-A.  He responded well to a promotion to High-A to begin the 2011 season, batting .296 with 33 extra-base hits and 12 stolen bases in 302 at-bats.  Den Dekker didn’t fare as well after a mid-season promotion to Double-A, though, as his slash line dropped to .235/.312/.426 while posting a 91/27 K/BB ratio.  However, he did tally another 27 extra-base hits (including 11 home runs) while once again swiping 12 bags.  Although he took a step in the right direction hitting for more power, the left-handed hitting den Dekker doesn’t project as a Major League power threat.  He will also need to cut down on his strikeouts (156 in 539 at-bats in 2011) in order to progress through the Mets’ weak system.  Den Dekker projects as a defensively savvy outfielder who will hit enough doubles to make him serviceable as a reserve.  But given the state of the Mets’ outfield – and lack of genuine outfield prospects – his arrival in the Major Leagues may happen ahead of schedule.  For the time being, den Dekker seems destined for another crack at Double-A to begin to the 2012 season.

Matt Harvey, RHP: Ranked by The Golden Sombrero as the No. 45 prospect in baseball headed into the 2012 season, Harvey was the clear No. 1 prospect in the Mets’ organization until Zack Wheeler was obtained for Carlos Beltran in late July.  A first-round selection by the Mets out of North Carolina in 2010, Harvey breezed through the Florida State league (High-A), posting an 8-2 record, 2.37 ERA, and 92/24 K/BB ratio over 76 innings.  After a promotion to Double-A Binghamton, Harvey struggled initially but finished the season strong with five wins and 50 strikeouts over his final 47 innings.

The right-hander’s fastball usually works in the mid-90s but has been clocked as high as 97-98 mph, and more importantly, is sustainable late into games.  His other plus pitch, a hard, late-breaking slider, is a genuine out pitch that plays off of his well-located heater.  Harvey also features a big breaking ball and change up, although the latter lacks feel and is the least advanced of his offspeed offerings.

At 6-foot-4, 210-pounds, the 22-year-old is built for innings.  Although Harvey currently may be one of the five best starters in the organization, it’s highly unlikely that he’ll begin the season in the Major League rotation.  However, he’s not too far away and should definitely crack the rotation at some point this season, possibly even before the All-Star break.

*On team’s 40-man roster

Want to discuss prospects with Mike? Be sure to follow him on Twitter: @GoldenSombrero

As opening weekend of NCAA baseball came and went, baseball fans, particularly those of the amateur and collegiate ranks, were once again swept up in the joy of spring and a return to normalcy.  We have been without the game since the end of the Arizona Fall League in many ways.  Although there is no such thing as the off-season for us here at The Sombrero, the recruiting season just isn’t the same as the spring and summer seasons.

The premier series of the weekend saw Vanderbilt travel to Stanford where Mark Appel, arguably the top talent headed into the 2012 MLB Draft, deal on Friday night.  This series also featured the loaded 2011 Draft’s only unsigned 1^st-rounder, Tyler Beede, toss his first collegiate pitch.  Both of these teams rank in the top-10 and are absolutely loaded talent-wise.  What they also are loaded with are entire rosters of players devoted to academic excellence.  This weekend also saw Duke travel to 13^th-ranked Texas in a game that also featured nothing but standout student-athletes.  Next weekend Texas travels to Stanford where the same applies.  These teams come from prime-time athletic conferences and perform well in sports other than baseball, but consider the fact that last year’s Texas squad hosted a series against Brown, a school in which no player on the field was receiving athletic-based financial aid, and actually dropped a game to the Bears.  They’re the University of Texas.  Just imagine for a minute the 40 or so kids that the Longhorns football team might send to the hospital if the Bears were to travel to Austin for a football game.  This hypothetical scenario reflects the idea behind this piece.

Baseball is unique in the world of collegiate athletics in that it provides academically inclined players and institutions many if not all of the opportunities that those players and schools where athletics must come first are provided, which quite clearly is not the case across the collegiate sports landscape.

How is it that players like Anthony Rendon or Mark Appel end up at schools like Rice and Stanford?  One of those schools is in the prestigious PAC-12 while the other plays in a mid-major conference, yet both have realistic chances at national titles annually.  What’s more, no one would be all that surprised if a player like Appel had turned down an opportunity at a place like Stanford or Texas or Florida to sign at a place like Rice or Vanderbilt or even Princeton.  And why should it surprise anyone?  This season Princeton travels to both North Carolina and South Carolina and will have numerous alums on Major League rosters.  In practically no way would a player like Rendon hurt his stock as a potential professional athlete by electing to attend a prestigious academic institution, which is exactly what he did and just one of the many reasons we here at The Sombrero are so high on him and what we think he can achieve at the professional level.  Yes, the Ivy League schedule is soft compared to the SEC or the ACC (as is the Patriot and Colonial for that matter), but the fact that outside of conference play teams can play whoever they want is something unique to baseball.

Were Texas or USC to play an Ivy school in football, they would all but be voluntarily eliminating themselves from the National Title conversation.  NCAA football is laughably misguided in how they determine a champion, but that is somewhat beside the point as well.  Basketball is awarded a little more flexibility, but eyebrows would rise if North Carolina were to play Harvard, even given the tremendous Crimson play this year, during the regular season.  Additionally, because of the shorter 3-point distance in collegiate hoops, novelty strategies like that employed at our beloved Grinnell College promote parity within that sport.  Baseball is on an entirely different wavelength in the parity respect, however.  Would anyone really be that surprised if a team from the WCC like San Francisco made a trip to Omaha?  We sure as hell wouldn’t.  And what do you want to bet that the guy gripping the rock in their first game will have a solid head on his shoulders as well?  You’d be right if you bet in his favor, because that guy is Kyle Zimmer and he’s pretty much a geek.  Oh yeah, he’s got a chance at the first round.

Because of the outstanding effort made by scouts and coaches to ensure that collegiate summer league rosters are comprised of the finest talent across the nation, Division 2 and 3 players, who might have foregone a “better” baseball program in exchange for an academic upgrade and more immediate access to the lineup, play alongside top caliber Division 1 talents as well for a couple months of the year.  Remember that Jordan Zimmerman might take the ball on Opening Day in 2012 and that Billy Wagner has a solid shot at the Hall of Fame, and both were Division 3 pitchers.  Zimmerman was a first-rounder as well!  Can you imagine a D3 kid going in the first round of the NBA or NFL drafts?  How about a kid from an Ivy school?

There is no hiding our extreme bias in baseball’s favor here at The Sombrero, but these points are obvious and all stem from within the nature of the game.  I have heard many people suggest that the baseball season needs to be shorter and that the postseason should be longer.  I respond with my own preferred notion: baseball’s regular season should be eternal and there should be no postseason.  One of the reasons that teams like Brown and Princeton can compete with teams like Texas is the fact that the schedule is so grinding in baseball, even in college.  Each game itself requires a tremendous amount of effort from around 15 players, several of which cannot even play in the subsequent day’s game.  At deeper levels, every team is far more similar.  The last guy out of every collegiate bullpen is usually a soft-tossing lefty, knuckleballer, or submariner, because those are all ways for walk-ons to stick around.

Academically talented and inclined baseball players can pursue both at a far more diverse array of colleges than other collegiate athletes.  Even the structure of the NCAA and its relationship to the draft promotes real academic standards.  It is very encouraging that teams like Stanford and Vanderbilt produce such quality baseball teams, and I annually find myself rooting for those teams because they also are so highly regarded academically.  That said I root even harder for those teams like Rice and USF because their programs are not bolstered by massive revenue generating football and basketball teams.  They could easily get by on their academic merit entirely independent of their athletic programs.  This all works to reinforce the game because those who graduate from the game are also far more likely to graduate with quality degrees and the ability to contribute to society in positive ways as well.  What’s more, they are far more likely to develop the means and motivation to reinvest in the game even after their days on the field are over.

I love collegiate baseball.