Patience is a Virtue: The Case for Taking a Walk or Not

As a collegiate player I posted walk rates of 19% in 2007 and 21% in 2008.  In high school it was something ludicrous like 25-26% (Major League average is approx. 8-9%).  To make a long story short, I like to walk.  There’s something enjoyable about going down 0-2 in a count and working your way in to a free pass.  I saw this as my job as a player.  My small stature and lack of power motivated me to discourage the opposing pitcher by making him throw an obscene amount of pitches only to eventually fail and put me on base.  As well as this worked for me, it—like any other strategy in baseball—it is best implemented in the right situation.  Justin brought up the importance of aggressiveness at the plate using the situational BA in the Major Leagues, which we shall have a look at as well

0-0 = .344
1-0 = .341
2-0 = .351
3-0 = .394
0-1 = .324
1-1 = .327
2-1 = .338
3-1 = .368
0-2 = .166
1-2 = .178
2-2 = .195
3-2 = .233
Source: Baseball FactoryBlog: A Premier Scouting Partner for Baseball America http://baseballfactory.com/blog/labels/batting%20average.html

From this dataset, it is clear that hitters should avoid a 2-strike count at all costs.  But taking a closer look at the 0-0, 0-1, and 1-0 counts we can see something interesting.  We see about a .020 fluctuation from 0-0 to 0-1, but nothing significant from 0-0 to 1-0.  As any baseball fan knows, there is little difference between a .020 change in BA.  What I mean is that difference, over the course of a baseball season, is just as much attributable to luck as it is to skill (depends on BABIP).  With this in mind, it should be evident that taking the first pitch is often more favorable than not.  If there isn’t much change from a 0-0 count to an 0-1 or 1-0, then why not take one pitch to tire out the pitcher and achieve the same result?  However, this logic should only be applied in situations where a BB is as productive as a base hit.  As Justin mentioned, sometimes the best pitch to hit is the first one, and by taking a pitch you are limiting your chances of seeing a drivable pitch.

That is the trouble with any all-encompassing strategy in baseball.  These strategies like, “Always take the first pitch,” or,  “Swing at the first pitch fastball,” are common in baseball and they are often best applied in certain situations.  I can distinctly remember events in my playing history where one strategy was preferential and vice versa.  Over the years of playing I’ve found that different players ascribe to some of these strategies—or philosophies, if you will—to justify their actions on the ball field.  The most important philosophy that I’ve gathered is to always do what’s best for the team.  ‘Does the team need me to take a pitch or drive in a run?’ is the question players should be asking themselves, rather than ‘What type of hitter am I?’ and trying to fulfill that answer.  The different situations and circumstances should dictate the decisions on the ball field, and these choices should always be made with the question in mind: What’s best for the team?

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