Positive Contact
April 2, 2010
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Posted by Robbie Unsell
Using contact percentages and strike zone control, as indicators of future success in top prospects, prompts a litany of questions: Who are the major league leaders in these two statistical categories? Are they consistently successful and productive players? And most importantly, why are they consistently successful and productive? Shandler describes walk rate and contact percentages as the leading indicators for a high BA; so aside from having high BA’s, what types of hitters are they? Below are the leading players at each position from 2009:
| Position | Player | CT % | BB/K | Age | HR | SB |
| C | Joe Mauer | 88 | 1.21 | 27 | 28 | 4 |
| Yadier Molina | 92 | 1.28 | 28 | 6 | 9 | |
| 1B | Albert Pujols | 89 | 1.80 | 30 | 47 | 16 |
| Todd Helton | 87 | 1.22 | 37 | 15 | 0 | |
| 2B | Dustin Pedroia | 93 | 1.64 | 27 | 15 | 20 |
| Luis Castillo | 88 | 1.19 |
35 |
1 | 20 | |
| 3B | Chipper Jones | 82 | 1.13 | 38 | 18 | 4 |
| Chone Figgins | 81 | 0.89 | 32 | 5 | 42 | |
| SS | Yunel Escobar | 88 | 0.92 | 27 | 14 | 5 |
| Marco Scutaro | 87 | 1.20 | 34 | 12 | 14 | |
| OF | Hideki Matsui | 84 | 0.85 | 36 | 28 | 0 |
| Magglio Ordonez | 86 | 0.78 | 36 | 9 | 3 | |
| OF | Carlos Lee | 92 | 0.80 | 34 | 26 | 5 |
| Shane Victorino | 89 | 0.85 | 29 | 10 | 25 | |
| OF | Bobby Abreu | 80 | 0.83 | 36 | 15 | 30 |
| Denard Span | 85 | 0.79 | 26 | 8 | 23 |
The most important trend to notice is that the two best hitters in 2009, Mauer and Pujols, are of the best at their respective positions. The next trend to notice is that not one of the players listed above is younger than 26, only 1 has more than 30 HRs, and the majority of them run the bases well. So what do these trends tell us? The prevalence of older players (50% are at least 34) in these categories indicates that the skills are learned with experience and that they age well (unlike speed). The lack of the long ball tells us that the guys who are swinging harder miss the ball more often and are likely to see more off-speed pitches in a given at-bat. It is much more difficult to explain the trend surrounding these players and their ability to consistently steal bases. It’s possible to assume that players who lack power are less likely to be successful in the big leagues with only one skill (strike zone control), and are therefore more likely to possess another solid skill set like speed or defensive ability. Additionally, it is possible that these players, during their development, learned how to control the strike zone in order to effectively utilize their quickness.
The importance of contact and strike zone control was brought up by Dee, and I have to agree it is incredibly important when considering the success of young prospects. It provides concrete insight into the baseball abilities of the player rather than abstract raw athletic ability. It also allows sustenance throughout a career as a player ages and his athleticism and raw skills decline.
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